797
FXUS64 KBMX 192336
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
636 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

- Heat Risk: Heat indices will top out in the 103-106 degree range
  this Saturday afternoon. Take extra precautions with any
  extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for
  strong to severe thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon and
  evening with damaging winds up to 60 mph as the main impact.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

Our upper ridge of late over Texas and into Mexico is deteriorating
as a closed low over Florida pushes westward toward the Northern
Gulf Coast. This will transition our weather pattern and finally
yield a return to scattered storm chances. Some storms may be
strong to severe this afternoon into early evening with very hot
temperatures to fuel the activity. The main threat will be gusty
downburst winds. For Sunday into Monday, guidance brings the upper
low further westward over the Northern Gulf Coast. This will
allow for continued moisture to filter into the state. Low to
medium chances for isolated to scattered convection will continue.
On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the low. Diurnal pop
chances continue through mid week ahead of an approaching surface
front/boundary. Beneficial rainfall is expected but does not look
to be enough to make a large dent in the drought just yet.
Guidance is looking more favorable for the weak front to make it
through the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring much
welcome more "normal" readings for this time of year into Central
Alabama for the latter half of the week.

We continue to have a heat advisory in effect for much of Central
Alabama for this afternoon and early evening through 8pm. Concern
is for all of the outdoor activities and that it is much warmer
than normal for this time of year (outlier event).  While any
convection will help to lower temperatures to bring some relief,
outside of any storms will be toasty. Plan breaks accordingly.
Today is expected to be the warmest day over the next 7 days. No
additional heat advisories are anticipated to be necessary over
the next week after today.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Isolated showers and storms remain present across the area early
this evening so we have opted to continue with the PROB30 groups
for another couple of hours. Low level moisture left in the wake
of these storms will likely lead to patchy fog developing around
sunrise Sunday morning. Another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely again Sunday afternoon. Outside of any
convection, winds will be light throughout this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although
compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may
arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 35%.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend and
continue into the middle of next week. Winds will remain light
through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  95  70  95 /  20  30  20  30
Anniston    70  94  70  93 /  20  30  30  20
Birmingham  73  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  20
Tuscaloosa  72  99  73  98 /  20  40  20  20
Calera      71  96  71  96 /  20  40  20  20
Auburn      71  91  71  92 /  40  40  20  20
Montgomery  72  94  72  95 /  40  40  20  20
Troy        70  94  70  94 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...95/Castillo