055
FXUS64 KBMX 160522
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026

- Persistent Heat: Above-normal temperatures continue into this
  weekend, with high temperatures reaching as high as the mid to
  upper 90s. Take extra precautions with any extended or strenuous
  outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026

A ridge centered near Tennessee will dominate the regional
weather pattern over the next few days. This persistent upper-
level feature will keep rain chances under 15% while driving high
temperatures into the low-to-upper 90s through the end of the
week, approaching near-record daily highs in locations such as
Birmingham and Montgomery. Lower dew points within this drier
airmass should keep peak heat index values between 101 and
104 degrees, remaining just below heat advisory thresholds.

By this weekend and into next week, the pattern begins to
transition as an upper-level low tracks west around the periphery
of the ridge near Florida, alongside a weak surface trough/front
moving over the Midwest. The influx of returning Gulf moisture
will weaken the ridge and support a modest uptick in scattered
afternoon and early evening shower and thunderstorm chances
starting Sunday and continuing into early next week, as well as
slightly tempering the hot temperatures. However, unless the
projected pattern shifts significantly, widespread drought relief
is unlikely.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026

Persistent high pressure will lead to VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours. Winds will generally be out of the east at 6-8kts
during the day, decreasing to light to calm after around 00-01z
tonight.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

While fire weather concerns remain low at this time, compounding
effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily
MinRH through the weekend is forecast to average between 30 to
40%. Shower and thunderstorm chances are nil to very low over the
next few days though a modest increase may occur for some areas
starting early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    92  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  94  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  97  71  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      94  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      90  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  93  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        92  66  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...25/Owen