225
FXUS64 KBMX 111155
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
655 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025

An inverted surface trough will turn continue to move inland
across the region today around the western periphery of a ridge
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The surface trough, accompanied
by a significant surge in PWAT values, will provide a good focus
for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms especially along and
east of I-65 today. Additional scattered shower activity could
continue into the evening and overnight due to embedded mid-level
disturbances.

The inverted surface trough will become diffuse on Tuesday as it
merges with mid-latitude features, but a confluence zone and very
high PWAT values will persist across the forecast area, leading
to numerous showers and storms.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025

The focus for convection will become more nebulous for Wednesday
and beyond as weak mid-latitude westerlies at 500 mb prevail
across the Deep South. This should lead to more of the scattered
variety of showers and thunderstorms with a clearer diurnal
cycle.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025

Currently we have MVFR stratus across C AL, with some IFR in the
far ERN part of the state. Conditions should improve toward
midday and should go VFR between 17-19z. SHRA/TSRA chances are
higher today. Mentions in for all TAFs with varying time lengths,
shortest W to longest E. ERLY winds are expected today with
mixing 5-9kts. More low stratus is possible during the night
tonight developing from the E again.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will continue, and there are no fire
weather concerns. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be the most
active during the afternoon and evening hours. A significant
upward trend in moisture and rain chances will take shape today
and tomorrow. 20-foot winds will be from the east today and
south-southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  71  84  71 /  50  30  80  40
Anniston    85  72  82  71 /  60  30  80  40
Birmingham  87  74  83  73 /  50  30  80  40
Tuscaloosa  90  74  85  74 /  30  20  70  30
Calera      86  73  83  72 /  60  30  80  30
Auburn      84  72  83  72 /  80  40  80  30
Montgomery  88  74  85  73 /  70  40  80  30
Troy        86  72  84  71 /  80  40  80  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08