381
FXUS64 KBMX 082310
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
610 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to
  reach the low to mid-90s for much of the next week, keeping Heat
  Index values above 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any
  extended afternoon outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026

The weather story for most of this forecast period will continue
to be the persistent upper-level ridging and associated heat.
Afternoon highs will generally range in the low to mid-90s into
the weekend, with heat index values remaining above triple-
digits. While we will remain below any heat advisory criteria,
prolonged outdoor exposure will still easily result in heat
related illness. Thankfully, this ridge should become slightly
compressed by Friday, as a deep trough and cold front work
through the Midwest. This cold front will eventually lose the
best upper-level support, stalling somewhere along northern
Tennessee, allowing for slightly more organized rain chances
through the weekend.

Forecast confidence decreases Monday as the upper-level ridge is
expected to rebuild once more by the start of next workweek. Some
guidance builds the ridge back quickly, while other guidance has
it return much more slowly. This scenario would allow for some
low-end rain chances (<30%) to remain in the forecast through
then, but again, confidence here is low. Regardless, it appears
that the ridge will return in some capacity, with afternoon highs
returning right back into the low to mid-90s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period under a
persistent upper-level ridge. Winds will remain light, becoming
less than 7 knots through Wednesday afternoon.

AMD NOT SKED at TCL due to missing observations.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next
week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-20%) through
midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. While fire
weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought
conditions will push these concerns up by next week if no
meaningful rainfall is seen over the next five days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  71  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  72  96  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      71  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      71  90  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
Montgomery  72  94  73  94 /   0   0   0  30
Troy        70  93  72  93 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...16