487
FXUS64 KBMX 261742
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

- Medium chance of heat indices reaching 100 degrees and air
  temperatures exceeding 92 degrees today for the northwest half
  of Central Alabama.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms for the
  afternoon and evening. The main risk is damaging winds. There is
  also a level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms for Friday
  afternoon and evening across the eastern half of Central
  Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

We`ve had a calm, cloudy morning in the wake of the overnight
thunderstorm activity. A residual mesoscale convective vortex is
rotating westward from Georgia currently, which will enter Alabama
this afternoon. With daytime heating, even held down a degree or two
from the previous forecast with existing cloud cover, we expect
development of showers and thunderstorms once again this afternoon.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with any severe storm that
develops, and the entire area remains under a Marginal risk this
evening. Development is a little slower today, but it should get
going by 3 PM or so and continue through the evening.

A Heat Advisory continues through 7 PM this evening. Further
advisories aren`t overly likely through the weekend. However, some
areas of western Central Alabama near the Mississippi line will be
close to advisory criteria tomorrow, and one may be warranted for
just a few counties.

More shower and thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday.
Although chances are elevated across the entire area, some guidance
has picked up on the possibility of more sea breeze activity moving
northward from South Alabama, similar to last night. A Marginal risk
for severe weather is currently in place across the eastern half of
Central Alabama for Friday afternoon and evening.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

The extended continues to look warm and wet and opposed to hot and
dry, as we`ve seen earlier this week. Highs each day will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index values staying in the upper
90s to low 100s. Little change was made to the previous forecast,
with only tweaks to temperatures and rain chances.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

The extended pattern continues to look wet through the first
couple of days of July. Much of this will be diurnally driven, but
may start early each day more like the 2 to 3 pm time frame. The
good news there is that temperatures will not be as stifling as
right now, however the humidity will still be quite high. We
really will be back into the true summertime pattern with a good
chance of hit and miss showers and storms. There is actually quite
high agreement with the longer range models. There is a good
consensus that the wettest day will be Tuesday as a front tries to
work closer to the region before stalling out over the Southeast
on Wednesday. Hopefully this trend will continue as we get closer
to the end of next week.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

Cloud cover is becoming thicker across eastern Central Alabama,
pushing westward across the state. Shower or thunderstorm activity
is possible late afternoon into the evening, so have maintained
PROB30 during that timeframe. Otherwise, ceilings should generally
stay VFR through the evening. Patchy fog or low clouds may develop
by early tomorrow morning. Ceilings and vis may fall to IFR before
conditions improve after 12z.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

Also, AMD NOT SKED at BHM due to issues with hourly METARS.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm, cloudy conditions are expected this afternoon with RH
values mainly falling into the 50 to 60 percent range. Scattered
showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with
some storms capable of producing high winds. Moisture and rain
chances will increase for Friday on through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  91  69  90 /  30  60  30  60
Anniston    70  89  71  87 /  40  60  30  60
Birmingham  71  90  71  90 /  30  50  20  50
Tuscaloosa  72  90  72  90 /  20  50  20  50
Calera      71  90  71  89 /  30  50  20  50
Auburn      71  89  71  87 /  30  50  30  60
Montgomery  71  91  71  89 /  30  60  20  60
Troy        69  91  69  89 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12