962
FXUS64 KBMX 211930
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
130 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025

This afternoon.

Shortwave ridging was over much of the Lower Mississippi River
Valley Region while sprawling surface high pressure was centered
across Northeast Missouri. Only a few high level clouds were
detected on satellite over portions of our west and northwest
counties, extending further west over Southern Arkansas and North-
Central Louisiana.

Expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon with surface winds from
the northeast at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from near
40 far northwest to the upper 40s far southeast.

Tonight.

Shortwave ridging aloft will move east over the local area
overnight while an upper low moves southeast over the Central
Plains with another disturbance moves southeast over the Four
Corners States. Surface high pressure will persist across much of
the region as the center moves southeast into Kentucky overnight.

Look for mostly clear skies overnight with light northeast winds
from 2-4 mph. Another widespread freeze is forecast with lows from
around 20 far north to readings in the upper 20s far south.

Saturday.

A more zonal flow pattern will develop aloft over the area during
the day on Saturday as the closed low aloft over the central
Plains opens into a shortwave trough and moves east over the
Northern Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The influence of
surface high pressure will weaken across the Northern Gulf Coast
with time as it consolidates further and becomes centered across
the Carolinas later in the day.

Skies will be mostly sunny during the morning, becoming partly
cloudy later in the day as more high to mid level clouds will
gradually increase from the southwest. Winds will become southeast
at 3-6 mph during the morning hours before a southwest wind
develops later in the day from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will
range from the mid 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2025

A benign weather pattern is expected during the long term period,
characterized by low-amplitude west to northwest flow at 500 mb and
multiple small shortwave passages. This will produce dry conditions
a warming trend through Wednesday with temperatures reaching the 70s
Tuesday and Wednesday. The system over the weekend continues to
appear too suppressed to include any rain chances in our forecast.
Potentially accompanied by rain showers, a front on Wednesday night
should bring somewhat cooler conditions for Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Other than a few
high-level clouds, expect skies to be mostly clear today and
tonight as dry conditions persist areawide. A gradual increase in
mid and high clouds is expected from the south and west overnight
into Saturday, but cloud bases and coverage will be far below any
restrictive criteria.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A very cold airmass remains in place for Friday. Winds are not
expected to be as high with northeast 20 foot winds expected near
3 to 8 mph and less gusty. Minimum relative humidity values
should be similar to this afternoon on Friday at 25 to 35 percent.
Rain free conditions will continue through Tuesday with surface
ridging in control.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     19  51  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    23  52  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  25  50  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  25  50  27  58 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      25  51  29  58 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  27  54  29  59 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        28  56  30  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05