Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
403 FXUS64 KBMX 140446 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1146 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1113 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025 High pressure will slowly strengthen and move over the southeast CONUS with low and mid level flow transitioning to out of the west and northwest over Alabama. PW values will remain high, near max for this time of year, with instabilities each afternoon approaching the 2500 - 3000 J/kg range and DCAPE values should be around 700-900 J/kg. There is some shear around as well, so would expect diurnal convection each afternoon today and Friday, with a few storms capable of producing downburst winds and heavy rain. Winds will be fairly weak with slow or training movement for all activity, which could make the downburst or heavy rainfall threat locally higher. Coverage should be less than the past couple of days, but at least scattered. With the high strengthening and less coverage of convection, temperatures will reach the low 90s today with heat indices near the triple digits across the southern counties. Friday will be a couple of degrees warmer. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1113 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025 Saturday through mid work week, the high pressure will continue, though meandering westward towards the MS River Valley. Low and mid level flow will transition to out of the north through the weekend, and then the east by the beginning of the work week. Parameters for instability, moisture, and shear will be mostly the same as the short term, with scattered convection expected each afternoon. Coverage may be higher in the southern half of the area, closer to higher instabilities, but the entire area should see thunderstorms each afternoon, with a few having a low chance of becoming strong. Movement will be slow with any thunderstorm with high rain rates possible. Temperatures will continue to remain in the low 90s, approaching mid 90s by Tuesday. Heat indices will hover around the upper 90s to lower triple digits, with almost the whole area in triple digits Tuesday afternoon. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025 As shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to decrease, low clouds should quickly begin to increase in their place. CIGs are expected to reach MVFR category by 14/03z, with additional drops into LIFR expected over subsequent hours. Thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow, with all terminals carrying PROB30s for TSRA past 14/18z. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Moist summertime conditions will continue through the week, and there are no fire weather concerns. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through next week. 20-foot winds will be from the west to southwest through Friday before shifting to the north and northeast this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 91 72 92 / 30 50 20 30 Anniston 72 89 72 90 / 40 50 20 40 Birmingham 74 91 73 92 / 30 60 20 40 Tuscaloosa 74 91 74 92 / 20 70 20 50 Calera 73 90 73 90 / 30 60 20 40 Auburn 73 89 73 89 / 50 40 20 40 Montgomery 74 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 40 Troy 73 90 72 92 / 30 50 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Jefferson-St. Clair. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24