514
FXUS64 KBMX 070309
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1009 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1009 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

 - A Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms is forecast for
   Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening, with increasing
   confidence of a widespread damaging wind threat. Wind gusts of
   60 to 70mph will be the primary hazard as a line of storms
   moves across the area, with a chance for a few discrete storms
   with large hail to develop ahead of the line.

 - A level 1 to 2 chance for strong to severe storms also exists
   in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as additional clusters of
   showers and storms develops to the west/northwest and moves
   across Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds will be
   the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1009 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

Convective development this afternoon appears to be right on
schedule, as showers are popping on radar just before midday. Also
on schedule was the deterioration of the previous MCS over
Arkansas, with an outflow boundary and MCV from the previous
storms moving eastward. As we continue to heat up into the upper
80s to near 90 degrees with dewpoints in the 70s, we`ll have
plenty of surface- based instability to go around on the order of
3500 to 4000 J/kg to fuel strong to severe storm development this
afternoon. It may take a bit longer initially to get those
updrafts to punch through the warmer air aloft (-6C at 500mb) and
weaker lapse rates aloft. As the 500mb trough axis moves quickly
east through the afternoon and into the evening hours, cooler air
aloft will allow lapse rates to steepen and 0-6km bulk shear will
also increase. Our thinking still remains the same as yesterday in
terms of the storm evolution this afternoon through this evening,
with more summer-like cellular development that may evolve into
clusters of storms. After dusting off our summer microburst
parameters, they reveal an enhanced downburst potential across the
northern and western portions of the forecast area due to dry air
aloft and DCAPE values increasing over 1000 J/kg. Damaging
straight-line winds could occur very quickly as downdrafts
collapse to the surface. As shear aloft increases and temperatures
aloft cool slightly through the afternoon, updrafts are expected
to be sustained longer which will increase the chance for up to
quarter size hail through the early evening hours. A level 1 to 2
out of 5 risk for severe storms remains in the forecast through
10pm tonight.

As the overall 500mb pattern continues to evolve and become more
progressive in nature, a stronger shortwave will eject east from
Oklahoma and Arkansas during the day on Saturday. CAMs are in
good agreement of a developing MCS over central/northern
Mississippi between 1pm and 4pm Saturday afternoon, moving
through a corridor of very unstable conditions during peak heating
hours. We have increasing concerns for a potential widespread
damaging wind threat as the MCS intensifies and slab-like lifting
occurs as the complex moves east/southeast through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Looking at old-school MCS maintenance
parameters such as 3-12km mean wind, MUCAPE, and 3-8km lapse
rates, conditions match up fairly well to indicate the MCS should
hold together by the time it reaches the I-85 corridor Saturday
night. Ahead of the gust front/bowing segments of storms
associated with the MCS, lift out ahead of the line may develop
discrete cells with hail cores and downburst winds. As the bowing
segments of storms move east-southeast, the threat for swaths of
damaging winds will be highest from noon to 4pm roughly along and
north of I-20, then across the rest of the area through 9pm in the
far southeast counties. Although the overall severe threat is
expected to gradually decrease along and south of the I-85
corridor Saturday night, a few bowing segments could still be
ongoing during that time. The overall severe threat should end by
10pm Saturday, as we await the next round of storms expected to
develop to our west on Sunday.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

Barely any change in the extended timing and chances as we remain in
a very active pattern. Would not be surprised as the Tuesday and
Wednesday periods approach the Day 3 time period for at least a
marginal chance for strong to severe storms. Showers and storms
continue into Thursday as well, but the potential for severe storms
appears to be limited to our south at this time.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

The active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming week.

The stalled boundary remains stretched across Central AL Sunday
through Wednesday. A deep trough will slowly shift through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley regions through the week as high pressure
remains in place across the Gulf. Several waves will slide through
the base of the trough, riding along the convergent boundary draped
across Central AL. This will lead to increased rain and
thunderstorm chances each day with predictability being low on
when each round will move through. Relatively higher chances will
be during the afternoon/evenings, but showers and storms could
linger in the overnight periods depending on when the upper
shortwaves move through. Given the environment, there`s at least a
low chance that some of the thunderstorm activity on Sunday to
become strong to severe for most of Central AL. This pattern will
likely continue Monday through Wednesday, so the potential for
strong to severe storms will need to be monitored each day.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to decrease in coverage
the next few hours, with terminals becoming clear by 07/03z. VFR
conditions will remain overnight, with some pockets of MVFR CIGS
possible. However, confidence was not high enough to introduce
restrictions at this time. Thunderstorms are expected again
tomorrow afternoon, with all terminals sans KMGM carrying a PROB30
group for TSRA.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED at MGM due to comms issues.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

We are moving into an active weather pattern with numerous days of
wetting rains expected for Central AL. Min RHs will remain well
above critical values. Winds will be gusty in proximity to
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  68  85 /  50  80  80  80
Anniston    71  87  70  84 /  40  70  70  80
Birmingham  73  88  70  83 /  30  70  70  80
Tuscaloosa  73  90  72  86 /  30  60  60  80
Calera      73  88  71  84 /  30  60  60  80
Auburn      73  88  72  84 /  30  60  40  80
Montgomery  73  92  74  88 /  30  50  40  80
Troy        72  91  73  90 /  30  50  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...02