554
FXUS64 KBMX 230438
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1038 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 550 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025

A shortwave trough will move east tonight and approach our area
by Sunday. Surface high pressure currently over the region will
slide east will become centered across the Southern Appalachians,
while a coastal low will become positioned just south of New
Orleans Louisiana. This will result in increasing clouds by Sunday
morning in the south and increasing rain chances in the afternoon
across the southern half of the area.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025

Upper level shortwave trough moving along the Gulf coast will
continue to spread rain across the southern half of the forecast
area Sunday night. Once that shortwave moves off to the east on
Monday, we will return to a dry forecast for several days. The
next chance of rain comes Wednesday night and/or Thursday, when
another upper level shortwave quickly swings through the base of
the longwave trough in the eastern half of the country and helps
drive a surface cold front through the southeast. GFS is a bit
more bullish with the moisture than the ECMWF at this point, and a
model blended POP of 20 to 40 percent seems about right during
this time frame.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 18z, before we start to see
an increase in clouds as well as lowering. Included Prob30s for
4SM RA after 21z for the south and west as a shortwave begins to
move through the area. Questions in regards as to how far north
the rain makes it, so left the Prob30s out of BHM, ANB and ASN.
MVFR ceilings make it to EET after 00z and could work into BHM
after 6z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A storm system moving along the Gulf coast will bring an area of
rain into the south half of central Alabama on Sunday into Sunday
night. High pressure will build back in and bring rain free
conditions for the start and middle of the work week. There are no
obvious wind or RH concerns through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     21  54  30  62 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    26  54  34  64 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  27  53  34  62 /   0  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  26  54  34  64 /   0  30  20   0
Calera      28  54  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
Auburn      30  56  40  64 /   0  20  30  10
Montgomery  30  55  40  64 /   0  40  40  10
Troy        30  57  41  65 /   0  40  70  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...16