596
FXUS64 KBMX 201102
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
602 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

By today, the upper-level ridge that has had a firm grasp on the
region will finally begin to break down. This shift will be rather
slow, which will still allow for well above average temperatures
today. However, this breakdown in the ridge will coincide with a
weak trough moving into the Midwest. This will allow for the
stalled cold front to our west to finally begin making its way
into the region by Monday morning. Rain chances should increase
here, expanding east into the afternoon hours. This cold front
should become elongated and stall once more sometime during the
evening hours on Monday, allowing for continued rounds of showers
and thunderstorms into the long-term. Thankfully, severe weather
looks unlikely, with only general thunder anticipated.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025

The front will remained stalled across our northern counties
Monday night, before beginning to lift back north as a warm front
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. As this occurs we may see
an uptick in coverage of showers and storms during this
time period with broad upper-level troughing over the area in the
southern stream. Will continue to have a risk of some strong
storms Tuesday given relatively cool temperatures aloft, but shear
will remain weak. Quasi-zonal, fairly weak mid-level flow will
remain across the southern CONUS for the rest of the week while
ridging weakens over the Bahamas. Several embedded shortwaves will
move through, as disturbances in the subtropical jet are enhanced
by active convection over Texas. One such shortwave will approach
the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall this will be
more of a late spring/early summer like pattern with continued
weak shear and showers and storms being mainly scattered in
nature. Friday looks to have less coverage and looks to be the
warmest day of the period with temperatures around 90 in the
southeast counties. Another weak cold front sags southward towards
the area over the weekend which may result in an increase in rain
coverage.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions remain in place through the weekend. RHs this
afternoon will range from 35-45% with southerly 20ft wind gusts
around 15 MPH. Rain chances will increase by Monday as a weak cold
front moves into the region. This boundary will stall across the
area before lifting back to the north, keeping rain chances in the
forecast through the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  61  84  61 /   0   0  50  70
Anniston    85  61  83  62 /   0   0  30  60
Birmingham  85  63  83  65 /   0   0  60  70
Tuscaloosa  86  63  82  64 /   0  10  80  70
Calera      84  61  82  64 /   0   0  50  60
Auburn      82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10  20
Montgomery  85  61  86  62 /   0   0  20  30
Troy        85  59  85  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION.../44/