269
FXUS64 KBMX 132337
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to
  reach the low to middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat
  indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra
  precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026

The weak upper-level trough continues to push off to the east,
taking these welcomed rain chances with it. In turn, upper-level
ridging is already beginning to establish itself across the
southeast. By this time tomorrow, the apex of this building ridge
will have firmly established itself over Tennessee, decreasing
our rain chances through the week significantly. Rain chances
will generally be low (<10%), with any isolated shower or storm
being diurnally driven in the afternoon hours.

Afternoon high temperatures will also quickly rebound by Monday,
with highs returning to the mid and upper-90s. While afternoon
heat index values will generally reach above 100 degrees, no heat
headlines are anticipated given the lack of higher humidity. This
will be the forecast trend into next weekend, as very little
movement is expected from the upper-level ridge over the next
five days.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all sites. A few lingering
showers through 03Z will remain away from the TAF sites.
Additional isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday, primarily south and west of the TAF sites, with
the highest probability at TCL (<15%). High confidence in VFR
conditions continuing outside of any isolated diurnal activity;
scattered mid-level cloud cover was introduced after 16Z to
account for increasing moisture at TCL.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through
next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast past
Monday. While fire weather concerns remain low for now,
increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late
next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  96  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    68  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      71  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      71  94  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  72  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...16