Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
697 FXUS64 KBMX 051752 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025 Surface analysis depicts a cold front to our northwest, extending from North Texas through the Ohio Valley. This boundary will push southeast through the day, moving into Central Alabama overnight into Saturday morning. Moisture pooling across the region will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of this boundary. Greatest chances (30-50%) tonight and Saturday morning will be across our northern areas with the threat extending further south through the day Saturday. Much of this activity will be east of us by the evening hours. However, we could see a few lingering showers through the evening as moisture remains elevated and a trailing H85 vort max swings through. The much drier air arrives through the day Sunday as the H85 front passes through. We will have one last hot day today with highs climbing into the mid 90s for most. We knock off a handful of degrees tomorrow with highs in the 80s. A few may not get out of the 70s across our northwest areas...depending on how fast the front arrives. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025 No significant changes needed with this long term forecast update. Drier air in place behind tomorrow`s cold front will leave us "cooler" through the week with highs generally in the 80s with lows in the 60s. We could see a isolated shower or two across our southeastern areas next week as moisture begins to return. However, without much forcing, not expecting too much activity. 95/Castillo Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025 The extended will be mostly warm and dry across Central Alabama during the afternoons, with highs in the mid to upper 80s through Thursday. Lows will be a refreshing upper 50s to mid 60s, depending on location. Some rain and storms appear to be possible across the far southeast, south of I-85, at least a couple days during the week. However, confidence on the northward extent of this is currently low, as most activity will be closer to the Gulf Coast. For now, no rain chances are mentioned in the forecast for any of Central Alabama from Sunday through Thursday. 12 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025 VFR conditions prevail through this afternoon and evening across all terminals. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop across the northern terminals Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and storms are expected to develop through the day but coverage should be isolated initially. Introduced a mention of VCSH to account for this. Thunder will likely need to be added beyond 18Z with the next TAF update. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RH values will range from 35-45% this afternoon and 40-55% Saturday afternoon across Central Alabama, with chances for isolated to scattered showers across the area through this afternoon. Rain chances increase tonight through Saturday afternoon, especially across northern and central counties. Behind the front, min RHs through the week will be as low as 35%, with a drier airmass working in. While no critical thresholds will be met, the area will be dry from Sunday through Thursday, potentially increasing fire concerns in that aspect, especially in areas that receive little to no rain this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 86 62 83 / 20 60 0 0 Anniston 70 86 64 82 / 10 40 0 0 Birmingham 72 86 64 83 / 30 50 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 87 65 84 / 30 40 0 0 Calera 72 89 65 84 / 20 40 0 0 Auburn 72 89 68 85 / 0 20 0 0 Montgomery 72 91 68 88 / 0 20 0 0 Troy 71 91 68 88 / 0 20 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo