877
FXUS64 KBMX 031125
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
625 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

-  A Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday evening for locations
   near and east of Interstate 65. Periods of heavy, slow-moving
   showers and thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Sunday:

Data from the Saturday evening weather balloon at NWS
Birmingham showcases very well the vertical weather pattern we
will be dealing with today and Monday: easterly wedge flow
extending down the lee of Appalachia with veering flow aloft from
a broad 500 mb trough. Moisture content will continue to average a
touch above 2 inches with bouts of weak to moderate instability.
This pattern will favor periods of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Slow motions and high rainfall rates will
continue to pose a risk of flash flooding.

Rainfall Saturday afternoon and evening was most excessive along
the 59 and 20 corridors northeast and east of Birmingham. As of
1:45 am Sunday, clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms were
persisting across these areas due to ascent from the wedge
pattern, outflow boundaries, and a swath of weak instability. This
activity will pose a risk of flash flooding through the overnight
hours. After a scattering of morning showers and thunderstorms,
some guidance suggests the main axis of lift will migrate a bit to
the west, perhaps easing the breadth of activity during the
afternoon; however, any eastward error could keep these areas
involved within periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday.

Assuming the westward drift does materialize, a favored axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms may set up somewhere in an
crescent-shaped footprint from the 65 corridor southeastward to
southern Georgia. Coverage should be maximized from midday into
the evening.

To cover these scenarios, the Flood Watch has been expanded in
area and time: areas near and east of the 65 and now through
Sunday evening (12 am Monday, specifically).

Monday:

The weather pattern does not change much on Monday. We`ll have the
same setup favoring heavy, slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
across the Gulf Coast region. Models show a mid-level wave
rounding the trough, spawning a fairly concentrated plume of
activity favoring parts of east/southeast Alabama, extending
eastward into Georgia. We`ll continue to assess Monday`s weather
to see if part of the Flood Watch needs to be extended.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Wedge flow continues on Tuesday, though the trough axis overhead
looks to move slightly eastward. Shower and thunderstorm chances
remain high, but this could keep the heaviest of activity/most
apparent flood risk to our east/over Georgia.

A weakness will persist between high pressure systems centered
over the Desert Southwest and the west Atlantic. This will result
in continued spells of showers and thunderstorms through the
week. The good news is that we will not be dealing with any
excessive heat during the week.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

IFR/MVFR CIGS will linger for most of this TAF period, with little
to no relief expected in the afternoon. Additional thunderstorm
activity is also expected today, with all terminals carrying
thunder through 04/00z. As the thunderstorms wane, IFR/MVFR CIGS
will return area-wide by 04/03z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming
days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused
on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be
light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  64  79  65 /  60  20  40  50
Anniston    78  66  78  66 /  60  30  50  60
Birmingham  82  67  79  68 /  60  30  50  50
Tuscaloosa  87  69  83  70 /  50  30  50  40
Calera      81  67  80  69 /  70  40  50  50
Auburn      78  66  76  68 /  80  50  80  70
Montgomery  85  68  80  70 /  80  50  70  60
Troy        84  68  80  69 /  90  50  80  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION.../44/