796
FXUS64 KBMX 181840
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
140 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025

 - Medium chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees Monday
   through Wednesday for areas mainly along and west of I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025

East-northeast flow aloft is located over Central Alabama, between
a stout mid-level ridge axis extending eastward from a strong
mid-level anticyclone centered over Colorado and New Mexico, and a
mid-level height weakness across the northeastern Gulf and
southern Georgia. A weak confluence zone axis between northerly
and easterly winds is located generally near and north of
I-85/Highway 80. This will be the main focus for scattered showers
and storms this afternoon. Continued hot and humid conditions are
contributing to MLCAPE values around 2000 to 2500 J/kg with some
pockets of higher DCAPE but weak mid-level lapse rates. Expect a
few strong storms with gusty winds and a low to medium chance for
microbursts. Dew points are mixing down some, keeping heat indices
marginal for a heat advisory, but it is hot regardless.

Overall pattern remains similar tomorrow, with the confluence axis
shifting a bit to the north and once again serving as a focus for
scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain hot but dew
points will once again mix down in the afternoon. Heat indices are
looking marginal for a heat advisory but will keep the current one
in place given the experimental HeatRisk product still depicting
areas of Major impacts driven by warm overnight low temperatures
tonight.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025

Ridging breaks down over the eastern CONUS by Wednesday while the
strong mid-level anticyclone remains centered over the Four
Corners. Weak deep layer northerly flow will be in place over
Central Alabama while Hurricane Erin lifts northward off the
Carolina coastline. A cold front will begin to push south of the
Ohio River, with a pre-frontal trough beginning to move into North
Alabama. Some outflow boundaries may also be present from one or
more MCS(s) developing off to our northwest Tuesday night. This
will begin to result in increasing coverage of showers and storms
across our northern counties by Wednesday afternoon, some of which
could be on the stronger side. South of these boundaries,
conditions will remain hot. A heat advisory may eventually be
needed for a couple counties, but probabilities are too low to
extend the current advisory.

Shower and storm chance increase Thursday through the weekend as
the front stalls off to our northwest and PWATs increase. This
should eventually bring some relief from the heat. Some drier air
may move in from the northwest by Sunday as another front moves
in, aided by a deepening trough over the Great Lakes.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop once again this
afternoon. Relatively highest chances are at MGM/AUO/ASN where a
PROB30 is mentioned. Will need to watch the deepening cumulus
field near the other terminals and amend if necessary; did include
VCSH at EET and TCL. Any storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds and brief visibility drops to IFR. Mainly VFR conditions
are expected tonight. ASN may see some fog around sunrise but
probabilities are too low to mention at this time.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due to comms issues.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will generally be in the 40 to 55 percent range
the next couple afternoons with showers and storms remaining
isolated to widely scattered. RH values and rain chances will
increase for the second half of the week. 20ft winds will remain
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  94  72  92 /  10  30  10  30
Anniston    73  92  72  91 /  10  30  10  30
Birmingham  75  94  74  92 /  10  30  10  30
Tuscaloosa  75  95  74  95 /  20  20  10  20
Calera      73  94  73  92 /  10  30  10  20
Auburn      73  91  73  90 /  10  30   0  30
Montgomery  73  94  74  93 /  10  10   0  20
Troy        72  92  73  91 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties:
Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-
Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32/JDavis
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...32