Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
680 FXUS64 KBMX 021157 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 657 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025 Much like yesterday, showers are likely again today across areas mainly along and north of I-20. Coverage across the far northwestern counties looks greater, with PoPs 40-50% this afternoon in that area. Several CAMs at 00z indicated this, with decreasing coverage overnight but enough to maintain some PoPs across the north and northwest all the way into Wednesday morning. As another shortwave scrapes by to the north into Wednesday, another afternoon of low PoPs (20-30%) is expected across the northern half of the area. A few rumbles of thunder are possible both this afternoon and tomorrow, but widespread thunderstorm activity isn`t expected. Meanwhile, highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s today and tomorrow. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 103 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025 Another shortwave will pass by to the north on Thursday, as disturbances continue pinwheeling around the southern periphery of a slow-moving upper low centered over the Ontario/Lake Superior region. As such, Thursday afternoon will again feature rain chances across the northern half of Central Alabama. By Friday, we are likely to warm back up into the low to mid 90s ahead of an approaching front, which will return low rain chances to the northwestern half of Central Alabama once again on Saturday. With meager moisture to work with, however, widespread coverage appears low at this time. Highs should be back into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the day today, with scattered showers and a few storms expected at times into the afternoon hours. Best chance of TSRA development will be across northern and northwest Alabama this afternoon, and went with a PROB30 for TSRA at BHM and TCL. Primarily SHRA is expected farther to the south, with no rain expected across southern and eastern terminals of ASN, MGM, and AUO. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the forecast period with light easterly or variable winds. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RH values will range from 35-50% this afternoon across central and southern counties, with chances for isolated to scattered showers across northern portions of the area through Wednesday associated with shortwave activity. Moisture values will remain relatively steady for the next few days, and will be above critical thresholds. 20ft winds will continue to be light and variable, increasing to 5-7 mph from the southwest by Thursday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 62 85 64 / 30 30 30 20 Anniston 84 63 84 65 / 20 20 20 10 Birmingham 86 66 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 88 66 88 68 / 50 20 20 10 Calera 86 65 87 67 / 30 20 20 10 Auburn 85 64 87 66 / 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 88 64 89 68 / 10 10 10 0 Troy 87 63 87 66 / 10 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...56/GDG