661
FXUS64 KBMX 310922
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
322 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025

Band of showers and thunderstorms associated with advancing cold
front has pushed into central Alabama early this morning.
Lightning activity with this band has (not unexpectedly) decreased
the past couple hours, although a couple bowing segments with
enhanced reflectivity do remain. Leading edge is expected to
continue to push eastward through the rest of the morning and
afternoon, and ultimately exit the area right around 00Z. Pressure
gradient winds ahead and along the precipitation shield will
continue to produce a few wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph this morning.
However, winds should ease a bit this afternoon.

Given the timing that the front and associated convection will be
moving through the southeastern portion of the area, there could
be a short uptick in storm intensity mid/late afternoon
along/south of I-85. Wind fields would certainly support storm
organization, but instability still just seems to be too limited
for any larger scale severe weather threat. Will need to watch
mesoscale parameters later on today, but will continue to forego
any additional messaging at this time.

The big upper level trough driving this whole thing will finally
and quickly exit the area to the east tonight, returning central
Alabama to dry seasonably mild weather.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025

Quasi-zonal flow aloft remains in place for much of the short term
forecast period, while a subtropical ridge remains centered over
Cuba and the Bahamas. With low-level southwesterly to southerly
flow, this will be a favorable pattern for high temperatures to
over-perform, and the first full week of February will feel more
like spring. A weak cutoff upper low will be near the mouth of
the Rio Grande. Some mid-level moisture from this feature may
make it up into the area by Tuesday, while southerly flow also
increases dew points, and a cold front stalls north of the area.
There could be just enough moisture for some isolated diurnal
shower activity in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. The front
lifts north of the area Wednesday as a warm front, before moving
back south as a cold front by Thursday with increasing rain
chances.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025

Very little change with this aviation update. MVFR conditions have
already arrived at TCL and will be at BHM/EET/MGM/ANB/ASN in the
couple of hours as moisture pools ahead of a cold front. A line of showers
will accompany the front as it moves through between 11-18Z. Winds
will weaken and turn southwest as the boundary passes. Added a
mention of VCSH for a few hours in the wake of the front to
account for some lingering showers. VFR returns by mid morning as
drier air begins to filter into the region. VFR and west-southwest
winds then persist through the remainder of this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread wetting rains move into the area this morning. Dry
conditions return by Saturday with RH values in the 35 to 50
percent range with light winds. 20ft winds become southerly at 5
to 8 mph Sunday with RH values in the 35 to 45 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  40  63  38 /  90  20   0   0
Anniston    65  41  65  40 /  90  10   0   0
Birmingham  65  42  62  43 /  90  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  42  65  41 /  90   0   0   0
Calera      65  43  65  42 /  90  10   0   0
Auburn      68  43  67  44 /  80  10   0   0
Montgomery  71  42  66  42 /  80   0   0   0
Troy        73  43  67  41 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...95