963
FXUS64 KBMX 031738
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

-  A Flood Watch is in effect through Monday evening for much of
   Central Alabama. Periods of heavy, slow-moving showers and
   thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

The main concern in the short term is our ongoing flash flood
threat. We saw excessive rainfall overnight, especially across our
northeastern areas. Some of the greatest impacts were seen in
Cleburne county where several water rescues were noted. As of
writing, we are seeing showers beginning to redevelop across the
area, generally along an area where the RAP depicts a low level
moisture axis developing. Once again, coverage is expected to
increase through the day as instability rises. The exact placement
of the heaviest activity later on today remains a bit uncertain.
Latest RAP/NAM12 runs hint at the low level convergence axis
shifting west as wedge flow nudges further into the state.
However, a plume of vorticity rotating around the east side of a
H85-H7 low may help keep any activity east of the I-65
corridor...which is more in line with the CAMs. Forecast soundings
are indicative of heavy rainfall with any activity that develops.
A skinny CAPE profile and a deep warm cloud depth will produce
extremely efficient rainfall producers. Storm motions of 5-10
knots will quickly lead to a flash flooding threat, especially
with any storm that is able to fully tap into the available
atmospheric moisture. WPC maintains a slight risk (Level 2 of 4)
of excessive rainfall across much of eastern Central Alabama and a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) across north and western Alabama.
Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are likely tonight through
Monday as additional bouts of upper level energy rotate through
the region. Latest CAMS are hinting at several more inches of
rainfall possible near our AL/GA border. The exact placement will
depend on just how far west this activity can make it. It`s worth
noting that the 00Z HREF LPMM is keying in on isolated amounts
over 5" through Monday. With that said, the HREF probabilities for
amounts over 5" is roughly 40% so this is something we will need
to keep an eye on. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended
through 00Z Tuesday.

High temps today and tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 70s
for those across east Central Alabama as wedge flow scoots in the
area. Mid to upper 80s can be expected across our western areas.
This setup will allow lows to drop into the mid to upper 60s.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

An unsettled pattern continues through the long term forecast with
continued medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
main upper level trough axis will slide east through the work week
which will put the heaviest activity to our east. However, mid level
impulses will continue to rotate around the eastern periphery of the
ridge to our west which will help promote diurnally driven
thunderstorms daily.

We look to have one last day of "cooler" temps on Tuesday as wedge
flow remains in place. By mid week, this feature weakens, resulting
in everyone warming back up into the mid to upper 80s daily. Heat
indices will remain in check so not anticipating any heat headlines
through the week.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Showers are beginning to develop early this afternoon across
Central Alabama. Continued with PROB30 groups for convection for
most sites this afternoon and evening. MGM/AUO were converted to
TEMPO groups as confidence is increasing in coverage. Activity
will linger at MGM/AUO through the late evening hours. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected to develop through the night and persist
through much of the morning hours Monday. Showers will begin to
redevelop by mid morning.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming
days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused
on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be
light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  79  65  80 /  20  40  50  70
Anniston    66  78  66  80 /  30  50  60  80
Birmingham  67  79  68  80 /  30  50  50  70
Tuscaloosa  69  83  70  85 /  30  50  40  70
Calera      67  80  69  81 /  40  50  50  70
Auburn      66  76  68  79 /  50  80  70  90
Montgomery  68  80  70  81 /  50  70  60  90
Troy        68  80  69  82 /  50  80  70  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo