849
FXUS64 KBMX 190810
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
310 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 251 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

 - Medium chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees through
   Wednesday for areas mainly along and west of I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

While not directly affecting central Alabama, Hurricane Erin will
have an indirect influence on our weather in the short term. The
large circulation associated with Erin will disrupt the upper
level flow over the eastern CONUS, with teleconnections helping to
nudge the center of the big upper level ridge more to the west.
So, after one more really hot day today, I do think the heat
conditions start to moderate, if not fully on Wednesday then
at least a little bit. As for POPs, the pattern suggests climo to
slightly below climo amounts in the short term.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

Upper level heights are forecast to continue to fall through the
long term, giving us a break from the unusually high heat levels.
With the upper high continuing to slide westward, the lessened
subsidence should also lead to an increase in diurnal convective
coverage. The models agreed, and above climo POPs will creep into
the forecast by the end of the week and lasting through at least
the start of the weekend. Interesting that the 00Z operational
runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show a cold front pushing through
Alabama early next week.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

Will continue with a VFR forecast across all central Alabama TAF
sites through the next 24 hours. Chances of thunderstorms this
afternoon not quite to the level to include a TEMPO or PROB30, so
left out for now. Winds will be calm to light (generally less than
8 kts).

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due
to comms issues.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will generally be in the 40 to 55 percent range
the next couple afternoons with showers and storms remaining
isolated to widely scattered. RH values and rain chances will
increase for the second half of the week. 20ft winds will remain
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  72  93  70 /  20  10  40  20
Anniston    92  72  91  71 /  20  10  30  20
Birmingham  96  75  93  72 /  20  10  40  20
Tuscaloosa  96  75  95  73 /  10  10  30  20
Calera      96  74  93  72 /  10  10  30  20
Auburn      92  73  91  72 /  20  10  30  10
Montgomery  96  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  10
Troy        95  72  93  73 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/