051
FXUS64 KBMX 011131
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
631 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

- Significant Heat Risk: A warming trend will push heat indices to
  105-108 each afternoon this week, with Heat Advisories likely
  needed from Wednesday and onward.

- Tropical Weather: Tropical Storm Edouard will pass well to the
  west, resulting in no direct impacts for Central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026

Similar to the last few nights, water vapor imagery reveals a
stout upper level ridge expanding across the southeastern US.
Newly formed Tropical Storm Edouard continues to move slowly to
the north-northwest over the Northern Gulf. This system is
expected to make landfall along the TX/LA border late Tuesday
afternoon or early evening. Increasing subsidence will help
maintain dry conditions across the area through the majority of
the work week. We look to continue with low chances for diurnally
driven convection across our southern areas where moisture
remains elevated closer to the coast. At this time, we are not
expecting much in the way of severe weather as wind shear will be
minimal. However, instability will be sufficient enough to
support a stronger storm or two as we reach peak heating. Low to
medium (20-50%) chances for showers and storms return to the
forecast for the southern half of the state late Thursday through
the weekend as a shortwave rotates west along the southern
periphery of the ridge.

A warming trend kicks in over the coming days as temperatures
climb back into the mid to upper 90s by mid week. Humid
conditions will push heat indices into the 105-108 range each
afternoon. Daily Heat Advisories will likely be needed by
Wednesday. Overall, this will promote a significant heat risk for
the region. The latest probabilistic heat risk data suggests a 60-
80% chance of a major or higher heat risk as we head into Labor
Day Weekend. We will increase heat safety messaging throughout the
week; emphasize the importance of hydration and limiting outdoor
exposure.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Calm or variable winds early this morning will increase
to around 6-8 knots out of the east-southeast by this afternoon.
Mostly clear and mainly calm conditions are forecast overnight
tonight through 12z Wednesday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for AUO due to a weather observation
outage.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 40% through the
work week. Low (10 to 20%) chances for showers and storms will
continue daily. Fire weather concerns are not expected over the
next week as winds remain light. However soil conditions are
drying out and drought may increase through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  95  75  96  75 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  98  75  99  75 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      95  74  96  73 /   0   0  10   0
Auburn      92  74  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  97  75  97  74 /  10   0  10   0
Troy        95  73  95  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...56/GDG