856
FXUS64 KBMX 082036
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026

- Heavy rainfall over saturated soils may lead to isolated flash
  flooding this afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch is in effect
  for northeast and north-central portions of Central Alabama
  through this evening.

- High temperatures will climb by the middle of this week,
  reaching the lower 90s in many locations by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026

Surface high pressure is present across New England this
afternoon with a boundary situated from Central Illinois to the
Carolinas. Across Alabama we remain in a moist onshore flow
regime. Satellite is indicating a mostly congested picture of
clouds across the state except for a small area in the southwest.
BMX radar is indicating scattered convection across the northern
half of the CWA. A flood watch continues through 8 pm for some of
the north central and northeast counties due to saturated soils
and more QPF expected. Temperatures will  nudge upward through
next week outside of areas of convection starting Tuesday when we
will see a change in the pattern.

In the upper levels, an upper trough is building over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Through the short term, shortwave
disturbances will continue to propagate periodically around a
Deep South and Gulf upper ridge being influenced by the building
trough. By Tuesday, this upper trough/shortwave progresses into a
larger trough stretching from Eastern Canada, extending southward
across Eastern Conus and into the Deep South. The latest guidance
continues to progress the Eastern Conus trough to the Atlantic
Coast by mid week. At the same time, the Deep South upper ridge
should retrograde back over Texas expanding and flattening across
much of the Southern US. The result for Central Alabama would be
the shifting of our main precipitation axis slightly eastward but
still maintaining isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced
convection chances for the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.
There is a medium probability for increased rain chances across
the northern half of the area Friday as a frontal system pushes
somewhat close to the Deep South. However, the upper zonal flow
does not suggest that the front will be able to make any
significant progress into the state. It may allow for some storms
to propagate into the area. This potential front will likely move
back northward, stall, and fizzle out over this weekend as
another frontal system pushes southeast out of the Plains. For
this weekend, with little changes locally in the lower levels,
low to medium chances for daily diurnally enhanced convection
across the area are expected.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026

VFR to MVFR cigs are noted across Central Alabama this afternoon
along with scattered areas of convection across the northern half
of Alabama affecting mainly TCL, BHM, and to a lesser extent EET.
This is a result of an upper disturbance moving across the Deep
South. Further south for MGM, convection chances are not zero but
are too low to mention at this time. AUO has a chance for showers
in the morning Tue as the main axis for convection shifts.  Cigs
should improve, outside of convection for VFR for all during the
afternoon. There is a medium chance for MVFR cigs to redevelop
toward sunrise for BHM/EET/AUO as the moisture axis shifts east
as well.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for
much of this week. Because of that, MinRH values will remain
above 45% or higher into next weekend. Given daily rain chances
and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain low at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  69  89 /  50  40  20  20
Anniston    70  87  70  88 /  50  50  20  30
Birmingham  70  90  71  91 /  40  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  72  91  73  91 /  20  20   0   0
Calera      70  92  70  93 /  30  20  10  10
Auburn      72  87  70  90 /  20  40  20  10
Montgomery  73  90  72  91 /  20  20  20  10
Troy        73  89  70  91 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson-
Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08