033
FXUS64 KBMX 221129
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025

Some lingering showers remain scattered across the region, as the
loss of daytime heating has really put a damper on rain coverage.
However, additional shower and thunderstorm development is
expected to get underway by this afternoon, once that daytime
heating gets going again. The catalyst for this disturbed pattern
remains the stalled front draped across portions of S. TN and N.
MS. However, over the course of this short-term, this cold front
will finally begin to wash out, allowing for future storm
development to be mainly diurnally driven, aided by a few
shortwave disturbances.

A few strong storms are possible again today, as CAPE values look
to climb to near 2000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours.
Additionally, mid-level lapse rates aren`t terribly great, but
they`re not terribly bad either. Because of this, strong storms
will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail. However,
much like yesterday, coverage of these stronger storms will be
limited.

Given the mostly rain cooled airmass, afternoon highs today will
range in the mid-70s to low-80s, before "rebounding" tomorrow back
into the low to mid-80s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025

A weak high pressure will develop across the western Atlantic,
with a low pressure slowly developing over the northern MS River
Valley Wednesday night through Friday. Between these two systems,
south to southwesterly flow will set up an atmospheric river type
formation with moisture advection prevailing. By Saturday
afternoon, the low pressure will move east, trailing a boundary
across areas just north of the state, with this boundary weakening
with time. Behind this low, high pressure will settle over the
Great Lakes region. This high will move southeast over the
northeast and into the Atlantic by next work week. While this
northern high moves east, a high pressure will strengthen over the
Florida area, and drift slowly west. This will continue to put
Alabama between the two systems with southerly flow and moisture
advection.

Instabilities will be high each afternoon, with values up to
1500-2000 J/kg each day, with the higher values in the north and
northwestern half of the state, closer to the boundaries and low
pressure systems. PW values are expected to remain in the 90th
percentile around 1.3-1.5 inches through the long term. Scattered
to widespread thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, mostly with
a more diurnal initiation, and activity lingering through the
evening and into the night hours.

Saturday afternoon through the beginning of the next work week,
chances for thunderstorms are much lower with uncertainty of how
much forcing will be over the area. Depending on how far to the
west the southern high pressure moves, the area could see a break
in convection. Will leave lower thunderstorm chances for now and
adjust with future forecast packages.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon, with
most terminals carrying thunder into the evening. As the storms
begin to fade, MVFR and IFR CIGs should quickly expand across the
region, and remain for the rest of this TAF package.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A late spring/early summer like pattern is expected through the
week with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. RH
values drop into the 35 to 40 percent range in
eastern/southeastern portions of Central Alabama at times, but
remain above 40 percent elsewhere. Winds will generally remain in
the 5-10 MPH range with occasional gusts to 20 MPH at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  58  81  58 /  70  40  70  20
Anniston    77  60  81  60 /  70  40  70  20
Birmingham  77  61  81  61 /  70  40  70  20
Tuscaloosa  78  61  81  61 /  80  40  70  20
Calera      77  61  80  61 /  70  40  70  20
Auburn      80  62  81  63 /  40  30  60  20
Montgomery  81  62  84  61 /  50  30  60  10
Troy        82  61  84  61 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION.../44/