424
FXUS64 KBMX 231745
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1145 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1229 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2025

Rain chances will begin to increase across the region today, as a
shortwave trough begins to develop and eject east. This trough
will be slow moving, with rain chances ebbing and flowing for most
of the next 24-36 hours. Given the colder temperatures this
morning, there is a small chance that a few snowflakes could mix
in with this earlier rainfall. However, no accumulation or impacts
would be anticipated, as temperatures will quickly rise above
freezing.

Temperatures this short-term will also begin to rebound, with
highs today ranging in the mid 50s, and highs tomorrow ranging in
the mid-60s. With that being said, overnight lows will be slower
to respond, with lows tonight ranging in the low-30s and 40s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2025

The long-term period of the forecast looks to be fairly tranquil
in nature, and mostly on the warm side which should be a welcome
change from the recent record cold. Following the shortwave and
low pressure moving off to our east Monday night, we can expect a
nice warm up by Tuesday as a surface ridge builds off to our
southwest. Westerly flow at the surface and ridging aloft should
allow for temperatures to rise into the 70s for most folks by
Tuesday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Even warmer
temperatures are expected by Wednesday as the surface ridge
centers over the northern Gulf of America and Florida Peninsula.
Warm air advection and southerly flow will assist in sending highs
into the low to mid 70s areawide, with a few upper 70s possible
across the far southern counties.

An upper level shortwave trough diving southeastward through the
Great Plains will push a cold front in our direction Wednesday
night, with the front expected to move across Central Alabama
during the day on Thursday. The GFS remains the strongest in terms
of available moisture and overall coverage of showers, while the
ECMWF is more moisture-starved with showers more scattered in
nature. For now, chance PoPs remain warranted during the day on
Thursday but those will probably need to increase over the next
couple of forecast updates. Behind the front we`ll cool off, but
this will be a more continental air mass as opposed to arctic with
current forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Friday morning
and highs Friday rising into the 60s. Saturday is trending warm
and dry as surface ridging is currently advertised to stretch
along the northern Gulf coast into the southwestern Atlantic.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle except for the far
south and southeast in the vicinity of MGM. Expect continued
increases in high and mid-level clouds this afternoon and
overnight. Chances for rain will increase (initially 15-35% low
through mid afternoon, then 30-65% medium from mid to late
afternoon) from the southwest through the afternoon and persist
(40-60% medium chance) across the southern portion of the forecast
area. Rain chances will decrease through the day Monday with low
(15-35%) chances across the southeast in the early to mid morning
hours. Clouds will decrease from the northwest through the day
Monday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Good coverage of light rain is expected to move over the southern
half of Central Alabama late this afternoon and during the
overnight hours tonight. With the approaching system, MinRHs will
be much higher this afternoon than in previous days. 20ft winds
however will be very light, with low dispersions expected during
the day today. Rainfall will move out of the area during the day
on Monday, but dispersions will remain quite low with very light
20ft winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     53  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    54  35  62  40 /   0  20   0   0
Birmingham  54  37  63  41 /   0  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  53  37  64  39 /  30  30   0   0
Calera      54  38  63  41 /  10  30   0   0
Auburn      56  41  62  42 /   0  40  20   0
Montgomery  55  42  63  42 /  30  50  20   0
Troy        56  43  63  43 /  30  70  30   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...05