Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
417 FXUS64 KBMX 201100 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 600 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025 We`ll be back into a warming trend today into tomorrow as we`ll be on the northern or northeastern periphery of a ridge that will set up in earnest off to our northwest by midweek. Rain chances remain highest across northern and eastern counties over the next couple days, with heat indices very near advisory criteria by Monday in many places. For today, several recent CAM runs haven`t indicated much at all in the way of rain for this afternoon. Still have maintained a consistent 20-30% chance across the area. Highs this afternoon are forecast to be in the low 90s north to mid 90s in southern areas. On Monday, strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible across northeastern parts of Central Alabama and into North Alabama. A Marginal risk has technically been added to the northern half of Cherokee County, but we have opted not to advertise a severe threat locally at this time. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025 Ridging will build in off to our northwest this week, helping to facilitate continued highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Tuesday is likely to be the warmest day of the entire forecast period, with mid to possibly upper 90s. The influence of the ridge may allow dewpoints to mix out during the afternoon, allowing for higher air temperatures. This day looks like the one in which a Heat Advisory issuance will be most likely. Rain chances will be highest opposite the ridge, so each day in the extended, rain chances look higher in the southeast. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon, but confidence is low on coverage and timing, so continued the prob30 wording versus adding in any tempo groups for now. Best rain chances will be from 19 to 01z. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper-level ridging will begin to build back in this week, which could slowly begin to push min RH values down each afternoon. Afternoon rain chances may also end up diminishing during this timeframe as well, especially across the northwest. Given the lack of true drying conditions, fire weather concerns remain limited at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 72 94 72 / 40 20 40 10 Anniston 90 74 91 73 / 40 20 40 10 Birmingham 92 75 94 75 / 30 20 40 10 Tuscaloosa 93 76 95 76 / 30 20 30 10 Calera 92 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 10 Auburn 92 75 92 76 / 20 10 30 10 Montgomery 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 30 10 Troy 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...16