410
FXUS64 KBMX 040718
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
218 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025

 - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday
   afternoon through Saturday evening with the primary risk being
   damaging straight-line winds.

-  Another risk for severe storms may emerge during the day on
   Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025

This AM, our satellite pic is indicating a generally clear sky
across much of C AL except for the SE counties. Cloud bands as
well as a few light showers are present associated with the upper
low currently centered just S of TLH over the NE gulf. This upper
low will meander NWWD toward C AL today as it weakens and opens
up. The arrival of this low will change our weather pattern of
late and yield an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. The
best chances will be in the SE 1/2 of C AL during the afternoon
when the system is at its closest and with the help of daytime
heating. Activity should begin to taper down in the evening as the
system weakens and begins to become absorbed into the main upper
flow moving NE and slowly away from AL. Thursday will be somewhat
similar to today with the orientation of rain chances (lowest NW-
highest SE) with the exception that the SE half pops should be a
little lower. There will still be a weakening short wave to the E,
but the activity should not be as widespread or robust QPFwise as
today. High temperatures will be similar today and Thursday to
yesterday overall (in the 80s), but the orientation will be of the
warmer temps will be W-E instead of S-N due to the orientation of
the pops/enhanced cloud cover being higher in the E.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025

The 500mb low will open up into a wave by Thursday and lift
eastward across the Carolinas, with 500mb shortwave ridging
building across Central Alabama. A weak 700mb trough and
associated moisture appears to get left behind, however, allowing
for some diurnal scattered showers and storms. Flow aloft becomes
northwesterly on Friday as a subtropical ridge strengthens over
South Texas, and also strengthens as the mid-level height gradient
strengthens between the ridge and a shortwave over the Midwest.
Surface winds will also switch from an easterly to westerly
component resulting in warming temperatures, with a medium chance
that BHM reaches 90 for the first time this year. Higher severe
weather probabilities remain just north of the area near a frontal
boundary Friday/Friday night, but will have to keep an eye out
for any thunderstorm clusters that sneak down this way.

An active, seasonally strong (40-45kt at 500mb) northwest flow
pattern sets up over the weekend, as a series of shortwaves begin
to amplify an eastern CONUS trough and shunt the ridge westward.
This will be a pattern favorable for MCSs and thunderstorm
clusters with an associated risk of damaging winds riding along a
slow-moving frontal boundary. Global ensembles are well-clustered
on the synoptic pattern, but convective evolution will be
dependent on the mesoscale details. Warming temperatures outside
of any cold pools will allow for plenty of instability to develop.
A Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms is in effect for
Saturday/Saturday night, and suspect an additional risk area will
eventually be needed for Sunday given stronger convective signals
in the global models, pending atmospheric recovery from storms on
Saturday. The pattern remains unsettled next week with a stalled
frontal boundary across the area around the base of eastern CONUS
troughing.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025

Generally clear skies are expected for the TAF sites tonight. Have
a tempo mention for MVFR patchy fog at TCL/EET for a few hours.
Otherwise, the transition in the pattern occurs later today with
clouds increases from the SE as an upper low moves in from SE that
will bring TSRA into the area. The best chances will be in the
afternoon. Start a TSRA mention after 18z. Chances drop off after
00z with both the loss of heating and system pulling away to NE.
MVFR cigs possible Wed evening to move in from SE. Have a mention
at MGM after 4z.

KMGM will have AMD NOT SKED appended to the TAF UFN due to comms
issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture increases tomorrow, with scattered to at times numerous
showers and storms returning to the forecast through the end of
the week. RH values mainly remain at or above 50 percent.
Conditions continue to trend more active for the weekend with
rounds of showers and thunderstorms more widespread in coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  65  86  67 /  60  20  30  10
Anniston    84  67  85  69 /  60  20  30  10
Birmingham  87  68  86  70 /  50  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  87  69  88  71 /  30  20  20  10
Calera      85  68  86  70 /  50  20  30  10
Auburn      82  69  84  70 /  70  30  50  20
Montgomery  85  69  86  71 /  60  20  40  20
Troy        84  68  86  69 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...08