


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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888 FXUS64 KBMX 220527 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025 - A Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening, as heat index values are likely to range above 105 degrees in some areas for the next few days. Further heat products may be needed into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025 High pressure remains in place across much of the Southeastern CONUS today through tomorrow leading to little change in the overall forecast from the previous few days. Heat will be the main concern again this afternoon with high temps reaching into the mid 90s for much of the area and heat indices climbing into 100-108 range. This will be another high impact day with the heat risk as morning lows this morning are only expected to drop into the 75-77 degree range, leading to very limited overnight recovery for any vulnerable populations. The Heat Advisory for today has been expanded to include most of Central AL. Tropical moisture from the Atlantic will advect across Southern GA into Southern AL later this afternoon through tomorrow and could lead to increased rain chances by Wednesday afternoon, especially for the southern half of Central AL. Even with the increased rain chances, we`re still looking at high heat indices across much of the area, so the heat advisory will likely be continued into Wednesday for at least part of Central AL. 25/Owen && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025 Very little chances expected through the remainder of the week and next weekend. Broad ridging will persist across the Southeastern CONUS. The tropical airmass will also continue across the southern half of Central AL leading to increase rain chances. High temps moderate slightly Thursday through Monday hitting in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, which brings the heat indices down into "only" the upper 90s to near 100. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Scattered thunderstorms expected through the afternoon with Prob30s at all sites. Generally southwesterly winds at 5-7kts through the period. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid weather is expected to continue through the next few days with min RHs will be generally above 50%. Medium to high rain chances across the southern half of Central AL is expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 73 92 71 / 40 10 40 10 Anniston 93 74 90 73 / 40 10 50 10 Birmingham 95 76 93 75 / 40 20 40 10 Tuscaloosa 96 76 96 76 / 30 10 40 10 Calera 93 76 92 75 / 40 20 50 10 Auburn 93 74 88 74 / 40 20 70 30 Montgomery 96 76 93 75 / 40 20 60 20 Troy 94 74 91 73 / 40 20 70 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25/Owen