822
FXUS64 KBMX 301129
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
529 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
   expected across central Alabama today through Tuesday.

 - Widespread freezing temperatures will return Tuesday night
   through Wednesday morning.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for significant
   rainfall amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

Today through Tonight:

A very pronounced CAD wedge due to a strong surface ridge
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region continues to advect cooler
and drier air into Central Alabama during the early morning hours.
Some higher wind gusts have been observed at Birmingham and
Anniston as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
approaching cold front now moving east of the Mississippi River.
Looking aloft, strong isentropic upglide is ongoing due to the
easterly/southeasterly flow at the surface and strong
westerly/southwesterly flow above 850mb. Overrunning precipitation
continues to moisten the atmosphere from the top down, with
widespread rains reaching the surface along and north of the I-59
corridor. Farther south, most of the returns haven`t reached the
ground just yet but should be very soon especially in locations
such as Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Demopolis. For some spots
across the north, we`ll actually see some evaporative cooling
occur where we can get some moderate rainfall, as dewpoints are
still in the 30s at Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden. Thankfully
temperatures aren`t any cooler or a wintry scenario would be in
the cards. Where rain is able to hold off, temperatures will
remain mostly steady overnight in the upper 40s to lower 50s under
overcast skies.

Widespread showers will continue to move southward during the day
today but eventually decrease in coverage with the 500mb shortwave
departing to the east and drier air working in aloft, followed by
northerly surface flow as the cold front moves in by this
afternoon. We`ll catch a small piece of the arctic airmass
plunging southeast across the upper midwest from the 1038mb
surface ridge tonight. Cold Air Advection should send
temperatures down below the freezing mark across the Highway 278
corridor. The southern half of the state will remain draped in
cloud cover and moisture aloft as the front loses upper support
and stalls very close to the Highway 80/I-85 corridor. Lows are
forecast to range from the upper 30s in Clanton to the mid 40s in
Troy and Eufaula.

Monday through Tuesday Night:

Our break in the rainfall action won`t last long as another potent
shortwave trough digs southward into the Four Corners States,
along with a 500mb shortwave ejecting northeast out of Mexico on
Monday. A huge plume of moisture between 850 and 700mb will
quickly spread northward from the Gulf and previous cold front
will move north as a warm front during the day on Monday. Plenty
of isentropic lift should occur once again as another CAD wedge
attempts to work in from Georgia. The result will be just what the
doctor ordered in terms of treating our current drought
conditions - widespread moderate to perhaps heavy soaking rain at
times. A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question
across southern counties. A surface low is forecast to move
northeast from Mobile Bay into southeastern Alabama through
Midnight Monday night and into early Tuesday morning. Heaviest
rainfall should be just north of the surface low and along and
east of I-65. 1 to 2 inches of rain on average remains in the
forecast, but we will likely see heavier amounts near the I-85
corridor before all is said and done.

Colder and drier air will arrive once again in the wake of the
departing surface low during the day on Tuesday, and for a lot of
folks it will be a cold and raw day. Cold air advection will send
a modified arctic airmass into the forecast area, with Haleyville
struggling to get out of the 30s and prevailing winds of 10 to
15mph gusting to 20mph at times. We`ll see a large range in terms
of high temperatures, perhaps reaching 60 degrees before the
colder air arrives in Troy and Eufaula by Tuesday afternoon. As a
surface ridge builds in just to our north over Tennessee Tuesday
night, ideal radiational cooling conditions will send low
temperatures plummeting into the low and mid 20s for the northern
half of the CWA, and I`d bet a few colder valleys across the
northeast will see some teens by sunrise Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday:

Typical early December temperatures are advertised for Wednesday
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s with a zonal 500mb flow
pattern. However, global guidance is hinting at another potent
shortwave trough ejecting eastward from the Four Corners from
Thursday through next weekend. As currently advertised, this
system would be more dynamic with an additional dose of widespread
showers and storms. The question will be how much more dynamic the
approaching shortwave will be and the depth of the trough axis.
We`ve got plenty of time to watch this evolve, but for now
Thursday night through perhaps Saturday morning appears unsettled
and very soggy with temperatures staying on the cooler side.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

Scattered showers can be seen on the KBMX radar early this
morning. As this activity continues, we will see conditions
deteriorate across all terminals. MVFR ceilings are expected in
the next hour or two with IFR following by mid morning for
BHM/EET/TCL. AUO/MGM will begin to come down during the early
afternoon hours. This activity will gradually wane during the
early evening hours. VFR ceilings slowly return through the night
into Monday morning.


95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A series of storm systems will bring at least two waves of rain
to Central Alabama this morning through Tuesday afternoon. Rains
through this morning will be widespread but rainfall amounts
should remain fairly light. RH values will remain elevated through
Tuesday as a more significant system moves through the region and
widespread soaking rainfall is forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     51  30  53  42 /  80  10  60 100
Anniston    53  34  54  44 /  80  30  50 100
Birmingham  51  34  53  41 /  80  20  60 100
Tuscaloosa  52  36  52  40 /  80  10  60 100
Calera      54  36  56  43 /  80  20  60 100
Auburn      59  42  58  49 /  60  40  50 100
Montgomery  60  44  61  49 /  60  30  50 100
Troy        66  45  63  52 /  40  30  40  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...95/Castillo