497
FXUS64 KBMX 181106
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
606 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024

Ridging will strengthen over the eastern CONUS today, while
troughing deepens over the western CONUS. One embedded mid-level
anticyclone will close off near eastern Lake Erie today, while a
subtropical ridge builds across Florida and the eastern Gulf
tomorrow. A weak upper-level shortwave in southwest flow aloft
will result in a few cirrus clouds tonight; otherwise mainly clear
skies are expected. At the surface, a sprawling surface high will
remain across much of the eastern CONUS. Associated easterly low-
level flow and weak wedging will temper the warming trend
somewhat, but a warming trend is expected nonetheless. Will
continue to go on the higher side of guidance for high
temperatures and the cooler side for low temperatures given
worsening drought conditions. With milder temperatures tonight,
frost concerns should be largely over, with the exception of some
patchy frost remaining possible in the far northeastern valleys.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024

A 500+ decameter ridge will be in control of the weather pattern
over the Southeast, along with a 1032mb surface ridge centered
over the Appalachian States. Very warm and dry conditions will
result, with large diurnal temperature curves between overnight
lows and daytime highs. Following chilly temperatures in the 40s
Sunday morning, upper 70s to near 80 degree highs will be in store
by Sunday afternoon. The warm and dry pattern will continue
through Tuesday as easterly to northeasterly flow at the surface
will keep dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, while 1000-850mb
thicknesses will support highs topping out mostly in the lower
80s. The cut-off 500mb low over the four corners is still expected
to eject northeastward and pass well to the north, and become an
open shortwave trough by Tuesday afternoon. Global guidance is
beginning to advertise a pattern shift by next Wednesday and
Thursday as the surface ridge weakens to our northeast. A more
moist, southerly to southeasterly flow could result with a warm
front lifting north across the CWA. Above normal highs could
become even warmer, with widespread mid 80s not out of the
question by Wednesday afternoon. The 500mb ridge could also become
more suppressed across the southern plains, with a more
northwesterly flow aloft developing over the Southeast. If those
guidance trends hold up, we could be looking at another dry cold
front headed our way by the end of next week as a fast-moving
upper trough dives southeastward over the eastern CONUS.
Unfortunately, we still have zero rain chances over the forecast
period, with drought conditions expected to become more of an
impact.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Winds will be out of the east today at 5 to 8 kts.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger remains somewhat elevated today through the weekend.
RH values will be mainly in the 25 to 30 percent range, but a few
locations mainly in southwest portions of Central Alabama will
drop below critical values (25 percent). Easterly 20ft winds will
strengthen somewhat but remain below 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  38  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    71  40  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  74  43  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      72  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      69  45  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  73  44  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        71  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Dallas-Etowah-
Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Randolph-Shelby-
St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...32/JDavis