916
FXUS64 KBMX 072247
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
547 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

 - A level 1 to 2 chance for strong to severe storms also exists
   in the forecast for Sunday morning and Monday as additional
   clusters of showers and storms develops to the west/northwest
   and moves across Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds
   will be the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 545 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

Round one has just about exited the area this afternoon, with
another round expected to move through overnight. Currently
activity is very isolated along the front in southern Arkansas.
However, over the past 30 minutes we have seen some cooling cloud
tops in MS and AR. Models continue to show that this activity
will continue to solidify into potentially another MCS and track
eastward through the night. Despite being worked over quite nicely
this afternoon with the MCS, areas to our west were not worked
over as much as we were. These ingredients should mix together and
result in the increase of showers and storms to our west,
especially with the loss of the daytime cap as well that is in
place. Not sure much will develop in our forecast area, but will
have to watch the activity development to our west.

This round moves through by late morning, leaving a boundary
somewhere between I-20 and I-85. This boundary will be the focus
for any afternoon activity, although may be difficult to get
anything above strong storms with this.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

The active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming week.

Another round of storms is expected Monday as a shortwave moves
through the region during the afternoon and evening. This will push
another frontal boundary into Central AL, providing the forcing for
thunderstorm activity. Instability will be in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range through the afternoon and evening hours with Lapse Rates
around 7 C/Km. This will support strong to severe storms capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail.

The boundary becomes weaker Monday night into Tuesday and stalls out
across the area Tuesday through Wednesday as the main upper level
trough shifts to our east. Ridging builds in Tuesday through
Thursday, though the warm/moist airmass will support diurnal
thunderstorm activity through the end of the week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

Better conditions for the short term, through 6z as the line of
showers and storms are now past the main TAF sites. Low MVFR
clouds will build in tonight ahead of another round of showers and
storms that will move into the west and slide through the area
during the 8z to 15z time frame. Isolated activity through the
afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED added to TCL after the storms moved through
this afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of rain and thunderstorms are expected for Central
AL. Min RHs will remain well above critical values. Winds will be
gusty in proximity to thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  85  65  83 /  80  70  20  80
Anniston    71  84  66  82 /  80  70  30  80
Birmingham  72  84  67  83 /  80  70  30  80
Tuscaloosa  73  86  69  83 /  70  70  30  90
Calera      72  85  68  82 /  70  70  40  80
Auburn      73  85  69  82 /  50  70  50  90
Montgomery  73  88  69  85 /  40  70  60  90
Troy        74  90  69  85 /  50  60  70  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...16