079
FXUS64 KBMX 201116
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
616 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 615 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

- Threats & Impacts: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
  on Sunday will pose a primary threat of strong, damaging wind
  gusts.

- Trends: Diurnally driven convection will continue daily through
  Wednesday, followed by a cold front mid-week that will bring
  relief from mid-90s highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

We had a fairly active afternoon unfold across the region as
several diurnally driven storms overperformed at times. Several
storms produced damaging wind gusts that led to downed trees and
powerlines across Central Alabama. Activity has waned over the
last few hours as we have lost daytime heating. Low level
moisture left in the wake of these storms will likely lead to
patchy fog developing around sunrise Sunday morning. Water vapor
imagery reveals our well advertised upper level closed low
emerging over the eastern Gulf as it moves off the coast of
Florida. A plume of moisture associated with this feature will
drive our weather as we wrap up the weekend. Another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday
afternoon. Strong wind gusts will be the primary threat with this
activity. The upper level low will begin to break down early next
week, leaving healthy moisture in place across the state. This
will allow for low to medium chances for diurnally driven
convection daily through Wednesday. By the middle of the week, an
upper trough will swing across the Plains while sending a cold
front our way. This will provide a decent "cool" down for us with
high settling into the mid 80s. The more noticeable change will
come during the morning hours as we will see temps in the low to
mid 60s by Friday morning. This was the first time in quite some
time that I remember looking at the ECMWF EFI and not seeing a
signal for anomalously warm temps! With that said, we will have
to get through a few more days of highs in the mid 90s before our
"relief" arrives.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

A low pressure continues to spin over Florida, keeping conditions
disturbed enough in the afternoon to allow for additional showers
and thunderstorms today. Confidence in thunderstorm coverage is
low, but still high enough to maintain PROB30 groups for TSRA at
all terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated for the
remainder of the TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although
compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may
arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 40%. Low
to medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the
middle of next week. Winds will remain light through the upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  71  95  69 /  20  20  30  50
Anniston    93  70  93  69 /  20  20  30  50
Birmingham  95  73  95  71 /  20  20  40  50
Tuscaloosa  98  73  97  71 /  20  20  30  40
Calera      95  71  95  70 /  20  20  40  40
Auburn      91  71  92  70 /  20  10  20  20
Montgomery  94  72  94  71 /  20  10  20  20
Troy        93  71  94  70 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION.../44/