133
FXUS64 KBMX 230534
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1134 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 505 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

Key Messages:
- Freezing temperatures are forecast across all but the far
  southeast portion of Central Alabama from midnight tonight
  through 8 am Saturday morning.
- A widespread frost is expected across all of Central Alabama
  from midnight tonight through 8 am Saturday morning.

The pressure gradient over the southeast that has been
contributing to the gusting winds the past couple of days, will
finally weaken as high pressure develops over the MS River Valley
and moves east through Saturday. Winds will near calm overnight,
with a brisk 7-8 mph sustained wind expected Saturday. Northwest
flow will remain through the night tonight, and into the morning
Saturday, with cold and dry air advected into the state.
Temperatures through the early morning will approach freezing
across much of the state, so a Freeze Warning will remain in
effect from 12 am through 8 am, with a Frost Advisory for the far
southeastern counties.

Mid level flow will transition to out of the west late in the day
Saturday as that surface high approaches the state. This high
pressure and transitioning of winds will allow for high
temperatures, compared to today`s temperatures, to be several
degrees warmer and closer to the normal values for this time of
year, with highs in the upper 50s in the north and the lower 60s
in the south.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

Only made minor changes to the forecast, speeding up the front
Monday into Tuesday slightly. It now appears the front may push
south and east of our area by early Tuesday afternoon, ending rain
chances earlier than previously forecast.

Not much more clarity for the Thanksgiving system. Model guidance
still varies considerably on the evolution of the trough and low
pressure system that will move through the region. For now, have
kept rain chances similar to as before. The big question will be
whether any instability is able to build in before the cold front
pushes through - essentially, does a warm sector materialize or
not, and to what degree. It`ll be something we continue to watch
for any potential severe threat on Thursday, but guidance still
generally hints at limited instability overall.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

One more chilly night is expected Saturday night and into Sunday
morning with good radiational cooling and mainly calm winds.
Cooler valley locations will likely drop down close to the
freezing mark or just below, with most other locations falling
into the lower and middle 30s with widespread frost once again.
The surface ridge moves off to the east on Sunday, with warm air
advection and southerly flow returning. Temperatures will warm
into the 60s on Sunday and 70s by Monday, along with increasing
low level moisture and dewpoints rising into the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

The next cold front is expected to arrive by Tuesday
with better agreement amongst guidance during this period with the
front moving into Central Alabama. With the base of the longwave
trough axis well to our north over the Great Lakes and surface low
moving into eastern Canada, the southward movement of the front is
expected to slow considerably. Rain showers will move in from the
northwest ahead of the front Monday night and into Tuesday
morning, before all rain diminishes completely by late Tuesday
afternoon. We`ll have to see how far south the front will make it
Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as temperatures will be
greatly affected by the position of the front.

Guidance trends are hinting at the front returning back to the
north as a warm front by Thanksgiving Day as the next system takes
shape off to our west. Needless to say, we have lots of details
to still iron out in terms of how potent the approaching system
will be. However, it does appear that a strong upper level
southwesterly jet developing on Thanksgiving Day through Friday of
next week could lead to a fairly widespread rain event developing
over much of the Deep South. The depth of the warm sector would
then better indicate the chance for storms during that period.
More details to come over the coming days.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

High pressure will build over the area Saturday with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Continued rain-free weather expected the air mass gradually
moderates before the next cold front on Tuesday. Min RHs over the
weekend will be generally above 35%, increasing the 50-70% by
Monday as moisture returns ahead of the front. Northwesterly winds
will continue through tonight before decreasing and becoming more
calm by Saturday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     31  59  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    33  60  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  33  58  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  33  61  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      35  61  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      35  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  33  63  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        35  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Saturday for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for the following
counties: Barbour-Lee-Pike-Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24