Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
313 FXUS64 KBMX 260520 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025 - There is a medium to high chance for dangerous heat conditions Sunday through Wednesday. This will be a long-duration period of extreme heat conditions with no overnight relief, affecting people and pets without adequate cooling and hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 The forecast area remains positioned to the west of a strong mid to upper level ridge centered over Coastal South Carolina while a surface stationary front extends from across Central Kansas eastward across the Northern Ohio River Valley into Downstate New York. A surface trough was analyzed just off of the Louisiana and Texas Coasts with another depicted across much of the Florida Peninsula. Tonight through Monday. The mid to upper level ridge to our east will gradually migrate westward with time, becoming centered across Upstate South Carolina towards Midday on Saturday and expanding in size by midday on Sunday, extending from over Eastern New Mexico eastward to over nearly all of the Southeastern States. By Monday, the ridging will reach its maximum footprint, encompassing roughly two-thirds of the country from over the Southern Rockies east to over much of Virgina south to over much of Florida. Toward the surface, high pressure will initially be centered across the Carolina Coastline Saturday morning and will migrate westward with time, becoming positioned across much of Georgia, Alabama and East- Central Tennessee by Sunday morning and extending from the ArkLaTex Region northeast into Eastern Tennessee by Monday morning. Increasing heights aloft will result in deeper thicknesses and result in higher temperatures, this also influenced by higher surface pressures that will help to further restrict potential for shower and thunderstorm activity, though this effect across the forecast area takes shape on Sunday through Monday as PoPs will be isolated (10-30%) east to scattered (35-55%) southwest on Saturday with PoPs generally around 10 percent Sunday across the northern third and far southwest portions of the area and similarly on Monday with PoPs up to 15 percent across the northern half of the forecast area. Heat will be the primary concern from late weekend into early next week with increasing high temperatures from the lower 90s Saturday east and central to readings in the mid 90s areawide Sunday followed by readings in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. The impacts of heat stress will accumulate with little to no relief as overnight lows also increase from the low 70s tonight to the low to mid 70s Saturday night and from the mid to upper 70s by Sunday night. These effects will only be compounded further due to deep low-level moisture remaining across the area, resulting in heat index values in the mid to upper 90s Saturday afternoon to readings from the upper 90s in the higher terrain east to values around 103 west and central on Sunday to values around or slightly higher than 105 across all but the far eastern higher elevations on Monday. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Friday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 The mid to upper level ridging will begin to contract in size through midweek as it becomes centered over the South-Central Plains. A weakness in the mid levels looks to develop over the Carolina Coast during the day Tuesday and move southwest with time, moving over the Southeast portion of Alabama by Wednesday morning and continuing west over much of Mississippi by Thursday before dissipating by Friday morning. The stationary front across the Ohio River Valley Region will drift southward as a weak cold front late Monday with some potential convective cold pool/outflow boundaries pushing far south enough across the Tennessee Valley Region to enter into our northern counties later in the day Tuesday into Wednesday while a weak surface reflection of the mid to upper level low will develop across Southeast Georgia and move southwest toward Dothan by Wednesday morning and continue moving west into Mississippi by Thursday morning. Strong surface high pressure is progged to develop across Southwest Canada from mid to late week and will help support the surface front to our north to advance south across the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday, potentially moving into the northern quarter of the state by Friday morning. Expect isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to increase from the southeast on Tuesday with chances from 20-40 percent with best potential far southeast. Rain and storm chances will increase further on Wednesday with isolated (30-45%) chances far northwest and scattered (50-70%) chances generally along and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor. Widespread scattered (55-65%) chances for showers and storms are expected areawide Thursday and again on Friday. Agree with the previous shift that we will need to watch for the potential for some heavy thunderstorm activity due to strong low-level instability as rain and storm chances increase Tuesday through Thursday. Heat concerns will persist into Tuesday with highs from the mid 90s in the higher terrain east to the upper 90s elsewhere followed by readings in the low 90s east to the mid 90s north and west on Wednesday. Further relief comes Thursday with readings in the lower 90s across much of the area and by Friday highs will range from the upper 80s far north to the low 90s south. Heat stress will continue through Wednesday as lows Monday night will be in the mid 70s northeast and upper 70s southwest. Low temperatures will range from the low 70s east to the mid 70s west Tuesday night through Thursday night. 05 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025 Expect dry conditions overnight with some MVFR conditions expected. Cumulus will develop by late morning Saturday and will result in shower and thunderstorm activity with best potential southwest, have mentioned shower activity from 21z to 00z Saturday afternoon and evening at all terminals for this issuance. Clouds will decrease Saturday night with a return to dry conditions areawide toward the end of this cycle. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND for KMGM until further notice due to lingering comms issues. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... One more day of isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday with best chances southwest. Expect drier and hotter conditions on Sunday through midweek next week with rain and storm chances decreasing while low-level humidity remains high. As a result, minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 72 95 73 / 30 10 10 0 Anniston 91 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 0 Birmingham 93 74 95 76 / 40 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 90 74 95 76 / 40 20 10 0 Calera 90 73 94 76 / 40 20 10 0 Auburn 90 74 94 77 / 20 10 0 0 Montgomery 92 73 95 76 / 30 20 10 0 Troy 92 72 95 75 / 30 20 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05