489
FXUS64 KBMX 050530
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025

 - Up to 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

 - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through
   Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

Rain is currently ongoing across a large area south of I-20, and
this is where the best rain chances will remain through the weekend.
Rain will likely ebb and flow north/south during this time, as the
surface low continues to take shape and move inland. My midnight
shift counterpart described it best as "A conveyor belt of moisture"
remaining in place through Sunday, before another trough finally
pushes the rain east Monday morning.

Conditions will remain dry to start the new workweek, with below
freezing temperatures possible again Tuesday morning. Thankfully,
temperatures will gradually "warm" into Wednesday, but still remain
below average for the most part. With that being said, another deep
trough will begin taking shape, dropping south through the Midwest
during this timeframe. Guidance starts to split here regarding
additional rain chances midweek, with higher confidence in more
cold weather behind this longwave.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025

IFR to occasionally LIFR cigs and vis present at area terminals
due to ongoing low clouds and rainfall, primarily at MGM and AUO.
Low clouds may stick around much of Friday, with ceilings
struggling to lift above MVFR. Vis should improve during the day
at BHM, EET, and TCL but could remain MVFR for MGM and AUO with
continued rain chances through the day.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain remains in the forecast through the weekend, with fuels likely
staying damp for a few days into next week. MinRH values will remain
above 50% through Monday, with fire weather concerns remaining
little to none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     37  50  36  51 / 100  10  10  20
Anniston    39  50  39  52 /  90  30  20  30
Birmingham  39  50  39  52 /  90  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa  39  50  38  54 /  90  10  20  20
Calera      39  52  38  54 /  90  20  20  30
Auburn      42  52  44  52 /  90  60  50  60
Montgomery  43  52  44  53 /  80  60  40  60
Troy        42  53  44  52 /  90  70  50  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12