249
FXUS64 KBMX 242338
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
538 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
   through Tuesday. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe
   thunderstorms with hazards including gusty winds, hail, and
   perhaps a brief tornado.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

 - Rain chances return Sunday and may persist for a couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

The leading edge of the shortwave is moving through northwestern
MS right now and will slowly work toward western Alabama this
evening. We could see some light rain in the northwest as early as
5 to 6 pm, but it is going to take quite a bit to overcome the dry
air in place right now. Better rain chances after 9 pm in the
northwest. Overall not much in a change in the thought process of
the development for the event. SPC has increased the area to a
slight (level 2 out of 5) chance of severe weather. Still looks
like a 2 wave set up with a pre-dawn event moving northeast
through the area and exiting the northwest by early morning. The
second wave will develop near the I-20 corridor late morning/early
afternoon. Amount of convection really will depend on the amount
of clouds and what instability can be realized during the
afternoon.

16

Previous discussion:
(Through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025

Tuesday`s rainy and stormy weather:

A shortwave trough located to our west as of early this morning is
forecast to quickly scoot by tonight and be in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday as it becomes
increasingly ill-defined. This will leave us without much in the way
of upper-level support/forcing as showers and thunderstorms affect
central Alabama late tonight through Tuesday; however, with broad
southwesterly jet stream flow arriving and persisting, sheared wind
profiles will be in place with weak to moderate instability
developing during the daytime hours on Tuesday. This setup could
produce a couple severe thunderstorms.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms to our west today are projected
to arrive to northwest Alabama as early as around midnight and
continue their eastward progression during the overnight hours.
While forecast soundings show a nicely sheared wind profile and
strengthening low-level jet, surface-based instability is shown
to be nil with weak instability aloft. So, much of this activity
will be characterized by downpours and rumbles of thunder.
Considering the upper trough will be at its most conducive
proximity at any point during this event, a low severe risk could
occur along the southern fringe of the activity if sufficient
surface-based instability along the northward-advancing warm front
makes it in time. Should this occur, gusty winds, hail, and a
brief tornado are the potential hazards. This low likelihood
scenario seems to favor counties in the vicinity of Demopolis.

Through Tuesday, we are expected to transition to a speed shear
setup as surface and low-level flow veers. The low-level jet is
also shown to weaken a bit through the day. While ensemble data
show weak to moderate instability developing, the lack of
appreciable upper-level support, and relatively weak frontal
forcing, will temper the severe threat associated with the
multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms. Even so, it is
plausible that a couple severe thunderstorms could manifest given
other environmental parameters (shear, instability). Gusty winds
and hail are the primary hazards, with a lesser potential for a
brief tornado due to the degradation of the low-level flow. All
of this activity should be out of here by early Wednesday morning.

Late week into the weekend:

High pressure begins to build into the region on Wednesday and
will be in control Thursday and Friday. Dry weather is forecast
along with cold mornings and cool afternoons. Thanksgiving Day is
looking nice!

High pressure shifts to the east on Saturday with our next trough
on its approach to the region. The evolution of a broad troughing
pattern with a series of impulses could result in a few days
worth of shower and thunderstorm chances starting on Sunday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate after 06Z as showers move
into the region. MVFR/IFR cigs are likely across all terminals and
will persist through the day. Continued with the TEMPO groups for
TSRA through the morning hours as our first round of activity
moves through. There will be a brief lull in thunderstorms during
the early afternoon hours before a second round arrives. Opted
for TSRA TEMPO groups starting at 20Z and continuing through the
end of this TAF cycle. In addition, winds will increase through
the day with gusts around 20 knots at times.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect
central Alabama overnight Monday through Tuesday. This activity
will vacate the region by early Wednesday morning with rain-free
weather forecast from the remainder of Wednesday through Saturday.
Additional rain chances return starting Sunday of next week.

There are no concerns with MinRHs through Wednesday. A drier air
mass will be in place Thursday through Saturday with afternoon MinRHs
reaching the 30s for much, if not all, of central Alabama.
Locations near and south of the 80 corridor of south-central
Alabama may slip into the 20s during that stretch. Winds will
be near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20
mph from the south on Tuesday and from the northwest on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 24:
KEET: 76/2016
KANB: 77/2016
KTCL: 79/1950

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  73  52  63 /  60  90  70  10
Anniston    59  73  55  63 /  50  80  90  10
Birmingham  60  73  54  62 /  60  90  70   0
Tuscaloosa  58  75  52  63 /  60  90  50   0
Calera      58  75  52  65 /  50  90  80   0
Auburn      61  76  60  68 /  30  60  90  10
Montgomery  60  79  58  68 /  30  60  90  10
Troy        61  79  58  70 /  20  40  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/Castillo