543
FXUS64 KBMX 030022
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
622 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

 - Below freezing temperatures are expected tonight, with below
   average temperatures anticipated for most of the next seven
   days.

 - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   with no flooding impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

The forecast the next week will continue to be one reminiscent of
the Northeast this time of the year: cloudy, rainy, and colder.

Lows tonight are still anticipated to drop below freezing for most
of the region, with one major caveat: cloud cover. The low clouds
are still expected to mix out over the course of the day, but
there`s currently a low to medium (20-60%) chance that mid to high
clouds develop overnight. This would stunt any type of radiational
cooling event overnight, keeping overnight lows higher. However, if
these cloud do not develop, then lows tonight are likely five
degrees too warm in some locations. With all that being said, given
the density of the current cloud deck, I do anticipated at least
some influence from the clouds on overnight lows in some capacity.

Dry conditions will return to the region on Wednesday, as we
experience a "lull" in the pattern, before the next system starts
to work into the region by Thursday. Here, a surface low will
kick off the Texas coast, and work its way into the Mobile Bay
area by Friday. In turn, rain chances will begin to increase in
some of our south zones by Thursday, with widespread rain expected
on Friday as this surface low pushes inland. An additional 1-2
inches of rain is expected, with rain showers lingering through
the weekend.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the forecast, with
another reinforcing shot of cold air possible sometime early next
week. Here, a series of troughs will be digging through the midwest,
with at least one of these troughs dropping south enough to allow
for that aforementioned cold air to work into the region.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

We have lots of post frontal moisture in the way of MVFR cigs area
wide with all of C AL blanketed on satellite OVC. Cigs will lower
to IFR between ~ 4-8z, and should remain that way until mid
morning, ~14-15z. Then cigs should lift back to MVFR before the
sky clears out with drier air.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A brief dry period is expected on Wednesday, before an additional
round of soaking rainfall moves into the region by Thursday evening.
1-2 inches of rain are anticipated, with the best rainfall amounts
currently expected in regions with the largest drought conditions.
Otherwise, MinRH values will hover in the 50-60% range through the
weekend, and Fire Weather concerns will remain limited due to wet
fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     26  52  28  51 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    29  52  31  51 /   0   0   0  30
Birmingham  27  52  33  50 /   0   0  10  30
Tuscaloosa  29  53  33  52 /   0   0  10  40
Calera      29  55  32  54 /   0   0  10  40
Auburn      32  53  35  53 /   0   0   0  40
Montgomery  32  53  34  52 /   0   0   0  50
Troy        32  55  33  52 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08