085
FXUS64 KBMX 062340
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
540 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

 - Medium to high chances of dense fog developing overnight.

 - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below
   average, with an extended period of below freezing nights
   possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 539 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

Continuing to see strong signals in the guidance for dense fog
tonight with an advection fog setup along with very low clouds
bases. The late-afternoon clearing across the north may also aid
development from a radiational perspective. Will keep an eye on
temperatures in the far northeast counties which may drop to right
around freezing for any patchy freezing fog, but chances of any
impacts from that remain very low. Will likely be issuing a dense
fog advisory this evening for much if not all of the area. Added
some slight chance PoPs for during the day on Sunday with models
indicating some very low QPF with a surge in 850mb moisture, but
expect this to be more drizzly in nature. Higher chances for light
rain will come Sunday night with as shortwave and associated cold
air aloft.

32/JDavis

Previous discussion:
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

One more day of rain is expected tomorrow, before the trough and
cold front finally push through the region during the early morning
hours of Monday. This rain will generally be showers, with most
locations only seeing an additional tenth of an inch or less of
rainfall ahead of the frontal passage.

Widespread fog is expected tonight, as the boundary to our south
slowly begins to shift north. This should keep mixing to a minimum,
and keep dewpoint depressions very small. While most of this fog
will be patchy, areas of dense fog are likely to develop in our
southern zones. There is a question as to how far north the densest
fog makes it, but reduced visibilities are expected nonetheless.

Surface ridging will quickly begin to build in along the Gulf Coast
behind the front, with temperatures slowly warming through the
middle of next week. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the
warmest days of this forecast, with highs ranging in the upper-50s
to mid-60s. However, another deep trough and cold front will begin
dropping SE through the Midwest by Thursday. This trough should work
through the region by Friday, dropping temperatures once more. It`s
worth noting that there`s already a pretty strong signal in the long-
range guidance that multiple systems will follow this same route
through next weekend. In turn, each system would deepen the already
cold airmass. Friday onward has the chance to be the coldest
sustained air of the season, with afternoon highs not even making it
out of the 40`s for some people.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

MVFR stratus deck is currently across MGM/AUO, and satellite
imagery indicates it is creeping northward towards at least EET
which would be ahead of schedule. Included an initial TEMPO for
MVFR this evening at EET. Later tonight, it`s not a matter of if
but a matter of when for the low clouds and fog developing. Cigs
lower to IFR first at MGM/AUO by 1-3z, then 5-6z at the other
terminals, with fog also developing. This will be due to advection
fog coming up from the south, and the late-clearing skies across
the north, with the current stratus deck being a wild card.
Conditions will eventually deteriorate to LIFR, and will be slow
to improve during the day on Sunday.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Given recent rainfall, and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns
will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     32  52  38  51 /   0  20  40   0
Anniston    35  54  41  52 /   0  20  40  10
Birmingham  37  53  41  51 /   0  20  40   0
Tuscaloosa  38  56  41  52 /   0  20  40   0
Calera      38  56  40  54 /   0  20  40   0
Auburn      42  54  44  55 /   0  20  50  10
Montgomery  43  56  44  56 /   0  20  40  10
Troy        43  56  44  57 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION...32/JDavis