Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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489 FXUS64 KBMX 050530 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1130 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025 - Up to 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday, potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85 corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected. - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1133 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025 Rain is currently ongoing across a large area south of I-20, and this is where the best rain chances will remain through the weekend. Rain will likely ebb and flow north/south during this time, as the surface low continues to take shape and move inland. My midnight shift counterpart described it best as "A conveyor belt of moisture" remaining in place through Sunday, before another trough finally pushes the rain east Monday morning. Conditions will remain dry to start the new workweek, with below freezing temperatures possible again Tuesday morning. Thankfully, temperatures will gradually "warm" into Wednesday, but still remain below average for the most part. With that being said, another deep trough will begin taking shape, dropping south through the Midwest during this timeframe. Guidance starts to split here regarding additional rain chances midweek, with higher confidence in more cold weather behind this longwave. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025 IFR to occasionally LIFR cigs and vis present at area terminals due to ongoing low clouds and rainfall, primarily at MGM and AUO. Low clouds may stick around much of Friday, with ceilings struggling to lift above MVFR. Vis should improve during the day at BHM, EET, and TCL but could remain MVFR for MGM and AUO with continued rain chances through the day. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain remains in the forecast through the weekend, with fuels likely staying damp for a few days into next week. MinRH values will remain above 50% through Monday, with fire weather concerns remaining little to none. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 37 50 36 51 / 100 10 10 20 Anniston 39 50 39 52 / 90 30 20 30 Birmingham 39 50 39 52 / 90 10 20 20 Tuscaloosa 39 50 38 54 / 90 10 20 20 Calera 39 52 38 54 / 90 20 20 30 Auburn 42 52 44 52 / 90 60 50 60 Montgomery 43 52 44 53 / 80 60 40 60 Troy 42 53 44 52 / 90 70 50 80 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION...12