296
FXUS64 KBMX 061754
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1154 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

 - Medium chances of patchy to dense fog developing overnight,
   with the lowest visibilities in the south.

 - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below
   average, with an extended period of below freezing nights
   possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

One more day of rain is expected tomorrow, before the trough and
cold front finally push through the region during the early morning
hours of Monday. This rain will generally be showers, with most
locations only seeing an additional tenth of an inch or less of
rainfall ahead of the frontal passage.

Widespread fog is expected tonight, as the boundary to our south
slowly begins to shift north. This should keep mixing to a minimum,
and keep dewpoint depressions very small. While most of this fog
will be patchy, areas of dense fog are likely to develop in our
southern zones. There is a question as to how far north the densest
fog makes it, but reduced visibilities are expected nonetheless.

Surface ridging will quickly begin to build in along the Gulf Coast
behind the front, with temperatures slowly warming through the
middle of next week. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the
warmest days of this forecast, with highs ranging in the upper-50s
to mid-60s. However, another deep trough and cold front will begin
dropping SE through the Midwest by Thursday. This trough should work
through the region by Friday, dropping temperatures once more. It`s
worth noting that there`s already a pretty strong signal in the long-
range guidance that multiple systems will follow this same route
through next weekend. In turn, each system would deepen the already
cold airmass. Friday onward has the chance to be the coldest
sustained air of the season, with afternoon highs not even making it
out of the 40`s for some people.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

Flight categories will remain reduced this afternoon, with brief
periods of VFR skies possible before 07/00z. However, widespread
IFR/LIFR CIGs are likely to develop past 07/03z, with dense fog
possible as well. VIS in some locations may reach a quarter of a
mile, with slow mixing expected past 07/16z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Given recent rainfall, and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns
will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  31  56  38 /  10   0  10  40
Anniston    51  34  57  41 /  20   0  20  40
Birmingham  51  36  56  41 /  20   0  10  40
Tuscaloosa  53  36  56  41 /  20   0  20  40
Calera      54  35  58  40 /  20   0  20  40
Auburn      52  39  56  44 /  60   0  20  50
Montgomery  52  40  58  44 /  50   0  20  40
Troy        51  41  58  44 /  70  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/