520
FXUS64 KBMX 220250
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
850 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 848 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast for parts of central
   Alabama on Saturday.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are likely next Tuesday into
   Wednesday. A low risk for severe thunderstorms may arise with
   this system.

 - Clear and cool conditions are currently forecast for
   Thanksgiving Day through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 848 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Did a quick update for the overnight hours, mainly to lower POPs
for areas south of I-20. Looking like fog will become a problem
once again for some areas as well.

/61/

Previous discussion:
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Today through Saturday Morning:

Central Alabama remains in a stable environment thus far as we go
into the early afternoon as widespread showers have developed
along with overcast skies. Lift thus far has been more stratiform
in nature with a 500mb impulse moving through within westerly
flow, along with southwesterlies at 700mb and southerly flow at
the surface. A window of opportunity will still exist for a few
isolated severe storms later this afternoon and through the
evening hours as the warm sector that is over southern Mississippi
attempts to advect northward. Lower 70s dewpoints are currently
being observed at Laurel and Hattiesburg, MS at this hour, with
mid 60s on the observations at Demopolis eastward to Montgomery
and Troy. High temperatures have been adjusted downward quite a
bit due to the overcast conditions, but we still have a few hours
where some mixing can occur to get some daytime heating involved
across the western and southwest counties. Where the most unstable
air currently exists across southern Mississippi, we`re seeing
storm development as deep layer shear also increases. We`ll be
watching those storms closely, as they will be moving downstream
into our western and southwestern counties later this afternoon.
0-3km SRH is expected to increase as a stronger mid-level
shortwave moves along the northern Gulf coast through the evening
hours. If enough of the warm sector is able to advect northward, a
few severe storms will still be possible through the late
afternoon and into tonight. Isolated damaging winds will be the
main hazard to worry about, but we`ll likely see a few updrafts
rotating as well with veering wind profiles early on. We`ll
continue to keep an eye on storms as they develop.

After midnight, wind profiles at the surface will continue to
veer, becoming parallel with the mean flow and approaching surface
front. CAMs this afternoon are picking up on additional storms
developing out ahead of the front between midnight and 7am mostly
along and north of the I-20 corridor. A few of these could also be
on the strong side with gusty winds as 0-6km bulk shear increases
to around 60 knots. These storms will move almost due east or
east-southeast through Saturday morning.

Saturday Afternoon through Sunday:

Dry air will advect into the CWA from the west and northwest
through Saturday afternoon, with rain chances ending and clearing
skies by the afternoon. With cooler air lagging behind the actual
front, temperatures will quickly rise into the upper 70s to lower
80s in most locations with plenty of sunshine and a northwesterly
breeze between 10 and 15mph. Dry northerly flow returns during the
day on Sunday with cooler daytime highs in the low to mid 70s and
plenty of sunshine.

Next Week:

The 500mb pattern is expected to quickly change by early next week
as a storm system ejects northeast into the Great Plains from the
Desert Southwest on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow at 500mb will
develop across much of the region, with a surface front headed in
our direction by Monday night and into the day on Tuesday. With
most of the upper level forcing for this system well off to the
north and east, a severe threat does not appear to be in the cards
at this time. However, we still have plenty of time to work out
some additional synoptic-scale details in terms of the evolution
of this system, so stay tuned. At the very least, welcomed showers
and storms can be expected across the northwest half of Alabama
with rain chances continuing into Wednesday across southeastern
Alabama. A more dynamic upper trough will move across the northern
plains by Thanksgiving Day and should provide enough support for
another cold front to bring cooler and drier air southward through
the end of next week.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Patchy mostly light rain was falling across central Alabama at
forecast time, with ceilings all over the place (ranging from 400
ft to 10000 ft). I think the general trend through the evening and
overnight hours will be for ceilings to drop, and most places
should expect IFR conditions at some point tonight. I`ve removed
the thunderstorm chances at TAF sites, as they`ve been very
isolated thus far and I really don`t foresee that changing. Cloud
bases will probably be slow to lift early tomorrow, and it may
take until 18z or later before conditions become VFR.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical
thresholds over the next several days. Batches of showers and a
few thunderstorms are forecast to affect much of central Alabama
through tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
likely next Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  77  47  70 /  50  30   0   0
Anniston    62  76  50  70 /  30  40   0   0
Birmingham  63  76  51  70 /  20  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  63  78  50  72 /  20  20   0   0
Calera      62  79  50  73 /  20  30   0   0
Auburn      63  78  53  73 /  20  30   0   0
Montgomery  65  81  53  75 /  20  20   0   0
Troy        64  81  53  75 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/