Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
099 FXUS64 KBMX 091738 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 - Seasonable temperatures expected this week with little chance for rain until the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 As of writing, the sun is finally out across Central Alabama. However, it will be short-lived as a swath of low to mid level clouds is pushing into the NW part of the state as a H5 vort max swings through. These clouds shouldn`t linger for too long as ridging quickly builds into the region. Increased subsidence and limited moisture will keep us dry through the remainder of the work week. A weak cold front slides through Wednesday into Thursday. It should pass through with little impact as there will be limited moisture available. Low to moderate rain chances return to the forecast over the weekend as our next upper trough slides across the eastern CONUS. We will see a slight uptick in moisture as a warm front moves north on Saturday. A cold front kicks south Saturday night into Sunday. Our best rain chances come during that timeframe as low level moisture convergence is maximized. Currently not expecting much in the way of thunder as instability will be lacking. We quickly dry out in the wake of the front as weak ridging builds in. To quickly touch on temperatures, a warming trend will kick in through the week with highs in the 60s for Friday and Saturday. With that said, we will see a brief cool down on Thursday but we quickly warm back up. Another cool down is in store behind Sunday`s FROPA. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 VFR conditions continue through the remainder of this TAF cycle. Winds will be light, less than 5 knots, out of the south through late tomorrow morning. Winds increase out of southwest by 16-17Z with gusts around 20 knots likely. With that said, there are low chances for MVFR ceilings over the next couple hours at BHM/TCL/EET and again around sunrise areawide. Confidence is not high enough at this time to include in the TAFs. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs will generally remain above 40% for the next several days with little to no rain chances through the remainder of the week. We`ll see southerly flow today, shifting more westerly then northerly with our next frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday. Low to medium rain chances return Saturday night into Sunday as another cold front moves through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 51 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 53 34 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 51 36 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 54 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 54 33 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 52 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 54 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo