383
FXUS64 KBMX 040642
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
142 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025

 - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday
   afternoon through Saturday evening with the primary risk being
   damaging straight-line winds.

-  Another risk for severe storms may emerge during the day on
   Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 939 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025

A dry and stable airmass is currently in place over much of the
Deep South today, with surface high pressure centered over the
Mid-Atlantic region. With just enough low-level moisture, a
scattered fair weather cumulus field should be the only cloud
cover today. With an ample amount of dry air aloft, we should see
some drier air mix to the surface with dewpoints dropping down
into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southeasterly surface winds
around 10mph with a few gusts close to 20mph are forecast as a bit
of a gradient develops between the surface ridge to our east and
storm system centered over the Midwest. In the meantime, we`ll be
watching the mid-level closed, cut-off low to our south begin to
impact our forecast during the day on Wednesday. At 500mb, we`ll
see a northwest to southeast-oriented Omega Block taking shape
over the Eastern Seaboard. As the 500mb ridge axis builds over the
western Atlantic, the cut-off closed low will begin to slowly
drift northward into the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon.
A surge of tropical moisture will move in from the southeast
across the atmospheric profile, along with synoptic lift
contributed from the closed low. Diurnally-driven scattered to
numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop across
southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and spread
northwestward into Central Alabama between 1pm and 4pm. No severe
weather is expected, as the activity will be pulse-like and very
tropical in nature as PWATs rise close to 2 inches with weak lapse
rates aloft. PoPs are forecast to be highest roughly east of I-65
and south of I-20 with coverage decreasing after sunset.
Temperatures will be close to 90 degrees across the far western
counties Wednesday afternoon, with much lower coverage of
convection and cloud cover as opposed to the low to mid 80s in the
east and southeast.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025

The 500mb low will open up into a wave by Thursday and lift
eastward across the Carolinas, with 500mb shortwave ridging
building across Central Alabama. A weak 700mb trough and
associated moisture appears to get left behind, however, allowing
for some diurnal scattered showers and storms. Flow aloft becomes
northwesterly on Friday as a subtropical ridge strengthens over
South Texas, and also strengthens as the mid-level height gradient
strengthens between the ridge and a shortwave over the Midwest.
Surface winds will also switch from an easterly to westerly
component resulting in warming temperatures, with a medium chance
that BHM reaches 90 for the first time this year. Higher severe
weather probabilities remain just north of the area near a frontal
boundary Friday/Friday night, but will have to keep an eye out
for any thunderstorm clusters that sneak down this way.

An active, seasonally strong (40-45kt at 500mb) northwest flow
pattern sets up over the weekend, as a series of shortwaves begin
to amplify an eastern CONUS trough and shunt the ridge westward.
This will be a pattern favorable for MCSs and thunderstorm
clusters with an associated risk of damaging winds riding along a
slow-moving frontal boundary. Global ensembles are well-clustered
on the synoptic pattern, but convective evolution will be
dependent on the mesoscale details. Warming temperatures outside
of any cold pools will allow for plenty of instability to develop.
A Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms is in effect for
Saturday/Saturday night, and suspect an additional risk area will
eventually be needed for Sunday given stronger convective signals
in the global models, pending atmospheric recovery from storms on
Saturday. The pattern remains unsettled next week with a stalled
frontal boundary across the area around the base of eastern CONUS
troughing.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025

Generally clear skies are expected for the TAF sites tonight. Have
a tempo mention for MVFR patchy fog at TCL/EET for a few hours.
Otherwise, the transition in the pattern occurs later today with
clouds increases from the SE as an upper low moves in from SE that
will bring TSRA into the area. The best chances will be in the
afternoon. Start a TSRA mention after 18z. Chances drop off after
00z with both the loss of heating and system pulling away to NE.
MVFR cigs possible Wed evening to move in from SE. Have a mention
at MGM after 4z.

KMGM will have AMD NOT SKED appended to the TAF UFN due to comms
issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture increases tomorrow, with scattered to at times numerous
showers and storms returning to the forecast through the end of
the week. RH values mainly remain at or above 50 percent.
Conditions continue to trend more active for the weekend with
rounds of showers and thunderstorms more widespread in coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  65  86  67 /  60  20  30  10
Anniston    84  67  85  69 /  60  20  30  10
Birmingham  87  68  86  70 /  50  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  87  69  88  71 /  30  20  20  10
Calera      85  68  86  70 /  50  20  30  10
Auburn      82  69  84  70 /  70  30  50  20
Montgomery  85  69  86  71 /  60  20  40  20
Troy        84  68  86  69 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/56/GDG
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...08