657
FXUS64 KBMX 081913
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
113 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2024

Broken to overcast skies continue across much of Central Alabama,
as isentropic lift continues with easterly flow at the surface and
southwesterly flow aloft. A surface front is meandering over the
region, currently draped across Central Mississippi, Alabama, and
northern Georgia. Even though this front will remain stalled
across the Deep South today, we really won`t see much in the way
of shower development due to a 700mb ridge centered over the area
and a large amount of dry air aloft. As clouds slowly mix out
through the afternoon hours, temperatures should still be able to
rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with a very humid feel to
the airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

As 700mb flow becomes more southerly overnight and into the day
on Saturday, rain chances will begin to pick up. Mississippi and
western Alabama will become wedged in between the southwesterly
flow from the strong closed low and longwave trough over the
western CONUS and the southerly flow on the western side of the
500mb ridge over Florida. The stalled front will move northward as
a warm front while at the same time, a backdoor cold air damming
wedge will move westward from Georgia and the Carolinas by
Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will remain highest across the
northwestern half of Central Alabama where the best atmospheric
moisture and lift will be present. A few storms will also be
possible. Warm and humid conditions will continue, as highs reach
the low to mid 80s in the southern counties, while 70s are
expected where more rain develops across the north. In addition,
we`ll see some cooler and drier air try to move in from the east
Saturday evening for locations such as Heflin, Centre, and
Wedowee behind the backdoor front.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2024

A more progressive pattern looks to develop next week as an upper-
level trough and subtropical jet shoves ridging over the East Coast
further into the Atlantic and suppresses it. Meanwhile, Hurricane
Rafael will meander westward across the Gulf of Mexico, having no
impact to Central Alabama other than to send some moisture
northward. A surface low will lift from the Central Plains across
the Great Lakes region and into eastern Canada Saturday night
through Monday as a cold front moves into the Lower MS River Valley,
becoming more east to west oriented and meandering across Central
Alabama before high pressure builds back in on Tuesday. There will
be periods of scattered to numerous showers with a few
thunderstorms, mainly across western portions of the area, beginning
Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. As the surface low
lifts further away on Monday, rain chances will decrease as forcing
weakens along the front and dry mid-level air rushes in from the
west, but it will be cloudy with some isolated to scattered showers
around during the day. In general, temperatures look to return to a
more seasonable range next week compared to what we`ve been
experiencing as of late.

Zonal mid to upper-level flow develops on Tuesday with pleasant
weather expected. A second trough and associated front will move
through the area by Wednesday and Thursday bringing another increase
in rain chances, but models diverge on the strength of the front and
how far south the trough extends into the region, so the
amount/coverage of rain we will see is still in question.
Regardless, it appears a cooler airmass could arrive towards the end
of the week as we settle beneath deep, northwesterly flow.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2024

Ceilings have finally risen to VFR category at most terminals, and
VFR conditions will persist through much of the evening and
overnight hours with light easterly surface winds. Development of
at least MVFR stratus is expected once again tonight, but may not
come in until later, between 09z and 12z based on current model
guidance. We`ll monitor observation trends and overnight
satellite for potential earlier amendments if necessary. SHRA
chances will increase during the day on Saturday, and have gone
ahead and introduced PROB30s at TCL, BHM, and EET, with best
chance of SHRA impacting the terminal at TCL after 18z Saturday.
MVFR clouds will linger through the mid-morning hours very similar
to what we observed today.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daytime minimum RHs will remain well above critical thresholds for
the next few days with moisture increasing this weekend as a
front moves towards the area. 20 ft winds will be from the
northwest today at 5 to 8 mph then gradually become southeasterly
at 5 to 10 mph by Saturday. There will be some opportunities for
rain, primarily across the western half of Central Alabama, this
weekend as the front moves closer to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  79  59  71 /  10  30  40  40
Anniston    64  78  61  71 /  10  30  30  40
Birmingham  65  78  64  71 /  20  40  50  50
Tuscaloosa  68  81  66  74 /  30  40  60  50
Calera      66  81  65  74 /  20  40  40  40
Auburn      68  78  62  72 /  10  30  20  20
Montgomery  70  82  67  77 /  10  20  20  30
Troy        69  81  65  76 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...56/GDG