374
FXUS64 KBMX 232343
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
543 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 535 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2024

Broad northwesterly flow aloft remains in place across the East,
and this coincides with surface high pressure centered across the
Deep South this evening. The air mass remains very dry, and a
quick decline in temperatures is forecast tonight. Lows in the
30s are expected with freezing temperatures across most of the
northern counties. Frost and Freeze headlines remain in place
through early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, a light southerly
breeze is expected tomorrow afternoon as the surface ridge
progresses east. This will favor a rebound in afternoon
temperatures with highs in the 60s, to near 70 south and
southwest.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2024

This update focused on targets of opportunity centered around the
NBM being too low with temperatures in the warm sector Monday
night and again on Wednesday into Wednesday night. NBM PoPs are
also too high Thursday night with the storm system expected to
move out quicker than NBM indicates.

Otherwise, the early morning long-term discussion still applies.

87/Grantham

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024

Key Messages:

- An unstable environment could materialize through Thanksgiving
  Day with a decent warm sector and plenty of shear. If current
  guidance trends hold, strong to severe storms may need to be
  added to the forecast. At the very least, Thanksgiving Day is
  expected to be wet and stormy for many locations.

- Sharply colder temperatures are expected by Friday and into next
  weekend.

A progressive weather pattern is expected during the period with
two systems expected to impact the Deep South. A very nice warm-up
is expected on Monday with southwesterly surface flow and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs should top out in the low to
mid 70s before a cold front moves in from the northwest Monday
night through Tuesday morning. The front will be weakening as it
moves to the south and east with the parent surface low well off
to the northeast over eastern Canada. Still, at least scattered to
numerous showers will develop as the front moves into the CWA
along and north of the I-20 corridor through Sunrise Tuesday
morning. Showers should diminish fairly quickly through the day,
with only a slight chance for a shower lingering across the I-85
corridor through midday. With the front now expected to completely
clear the area, cooler and drier air will filter in behind the
front Tuesday night with temperatures expected to range from the
mid 30s north to the lower 40s south by sunrise Wednesday.

A potent upper level shortwave originating from the significant
storm system currently over the Pacific Northwest will quickly
dive southeastward into the southern Plains by Wednesday evening.
At the same time, a surface low is expected to develop over the
ArkLaTex early Thursday morning, with a warm front lifting
northward over the Deep South. Strong westerly to southwesterly
flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will lead to the
development of widespread rains and embedded storms over much of
the Southeast on Thanksgiving Day. With guidance starting to come
into better agreement with the overall synoptic setup, rain
chances have been increased into the likely category and will most
certainly increase further if trends continue. We could see some
heavy rainfall, especially along and north of the I-20 corridor.
In addition, we`ll have to watch for the potential of a warm
sector developing Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening as
the surface low moves across the Tennessee River Valley. With
plenty of wind shear aloft, the potential of strong to severe
storms across the southern half of the CWA may be in the cards.
We`ll see if guidance trends continue with this solution, so stay
tuned.

The cold front will quickly sweep across the region early Friday
morning, with much colder and drier air moving into the Deep
South. Highs only in the 40s and 50s are currently advertised by
Friday as a semi-arctic airmass is poised to move across much of
the eastern CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2024

VFR TAFs are advertised for this period. Only a few cirrus clouds
are out there currently, and this will continue through tomorrow.
Winds will favor a southerly direction tomorrow afternoon at 4-7
kts.

Note: there are prescribed burns near KASN resulting in MVFR obs
due to smoke.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather is expected through Monday afternoon, followed
by a pair of fronts with rain Monday night/Tuesday morning and
Thursday. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to be above critical
thresholds. Southerly 20-foot winds should range from 5 to 8 mph
on Sunday. 20-foot winds are expected to increase to 8 to 14 mph
on Monday from the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     30  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    35  67  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  37  67  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  35  69  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      36  68  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      38  66  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  35  70  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        35  69  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Sunday for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Lamar-Marion-Randolph-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Sunday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...40/Sizemore