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FXUS64 KBMX 031054
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
554 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across the
   northwest and west portions of Central Alabama during the pre-
   dawn and into the daytime hours on Sunday. The threats include
   tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

Satellite imagery this morning reveals a line of severe
thunderstorms to our northwest where a frontal boundary is
stalled across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Locally, low level
stratus has been moving north across Central Alabama as a ~30 knot
LLJ continues to usher moisture northward across the Mid South.
The upper level pattern remains fairly similar to yesterday with a
ridge to our east and a trough to our west. Will continue with a
mention of a low chance of showers and storms across our
northwestern counties due to the proximity of the stalled boundary
and the H85-H5 impulses ejecting along the periphery of the
trough. We will also be nearing our convective temps once again so
can`t rule out a rogue storm. Just as we saw yesterday, any storm
that develops will have the potential to quickly reach severe
limits. Breezy conditions will continue today across the area.
However, it won`t be quite as strong as what we saw yesterday so
will hold off on a Wind Advisory. The setup is pretty similar for
Friday with low chances for showers and storms across our
northwestern counties.

We saw quite the warm up on Wednesday with several record highs
broken across the region. Will once again bump up high temps a
couple of degrees based on the latest HREF probabilities and the
ECMWF EFI hinting at an unusually warm event. High temps today and
tomorrow will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices
in the low to mid 90s.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

Long range models show the upper ridge that has been providing
record warmth across central Alabama will finally succumb to the
eastward advancement of upper level troughing over the weekend. This
will, in turn, finally help drive a cold front through the area.
Given instability and shear parameters that are forecast, will
maintain a risk of severe thunderstorms associated with the cold
frontal passage. GFS model is the most aggressive in pushing the
front through, while other models hang the front back a bit longer.
If the front slows down much more, we could end up with the severe
weather risk ramping up a bit more on Sunday. Will continue to
monitor trends in later model runs.

Showers could linger into Monday, but we should be fully dried out
by Monday night through the remainder of the 7-day long term
forecast. Big pattern shift remains on the table as well, with
temperatures dipping below seasonal norms early next week. Hard to
think about it now, but we may actually be looking at some frost
potential next Tuesday night.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals a MVFR stratus deck
moving across the area. VFR returns by 17/18Z. Gusty southerly
winds continue through this TAF cycle with gusts from 25-30 knots
likely this afternoon. Winds begin to relax after 00Z. MVFR
ceilings return after 06Z for most sites.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions are anticipated into the weekend, before
rain chances increase overnight Saturday. Some of this rain could
be moderate to heavy at times, with conditions drying out once
again to start the new workweek. Steady south winds will continue
for several more days, although winds are not expected to be as
strong as they were on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025

Forecast high temperatures will continue to be near record values
from Thursday, April 3rd to Saturday, April 5th. The table below
shows current record high temperatures for each of those days.

                April 3     April 4     April 5

Anniston        89          86          88
Birmingham      87          88          88
Tuscaloosa      86          87          89
Montgomery      87          89          91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  66  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    90  64  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  69  89  67 /   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  90  68  89  66 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      89  67  89  66 /   0   0  10   0
Auburn      88  66  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  67  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  66  88  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo