055
FXUS64 KBMX 052338
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
538 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 PM CST WED FEB 5 2025

A stalled front over the area will begin to lift back towards the
north this afternoon with Central Alabama under warm, southwesterly
low-level flow and weak isentropic lift. A deeper layer of moisture
is lifting across the Lower MS River Valley from a cutoff low over
Mexico, and some isolated showers have begun to move across the
area. Passing showers will continue through the afternoon, and it
appears that thunderstorm chances are very low, with highest PoPs
across the northern half of the area. Much of the area will remain
dry. Even with the cloud cover, temperatures will warm into the
mid to upper 70s.

Mild and humid conditions redevelop tonight, and some advection fog
appears likely again, especially in the south. May need to draw up
another Dense Fog Advisory later on if guidance continues to
indicate higher probabilities for lower visibility, but current
probs of less than 0.5mi visibility is around 30-40% for parts of
the area. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50s
overnight. The front will meander across Tennessee tomorrow, and
some isolated to scattered showers may develop again during the
day, but chances appear lower tomorrow than they are today. Most
of the area will be mostly cloudy with highs in the 70s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST WED FEB 5 2025

Upper level pattern through the long term period remains
remarkably zonal. As such, models do have a more difficult time in
the timing and magnitude of shortwaves forecast to have sensible
weather implications for central Alabama. Having said that, it
appears the best rain chances in the long term will be from Monday
night into Tuesday (and perhaps beyond), as a stronger southern
stream shortwave trough scoots through the area. The zonalness of
the flow should keep the coldest of the air bottled up to our
north, and there is no other obvious high impact weather to be
found through the end of the 7-day period.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST WED FEB 5 2025

Multiple computer models continue to strongly suggest that low
level moisture will stream back into central Alabama tonight,
bringing more low ceilings to area terminals. As is often the
case, trying to pinpoint when conditions drop to MVFR or IFR is
the most problematic aspect of the forecast. So while confidence
is high that conditions do get down below 2000 ft (or even below
1000 ft) eventually, confidence in timing of the above is much
lower. Went with the model consensus of roughly 09Z-10Z (perhaps a
bit earlier at ANB and ASN). Like today, it appears that once the
low ceilings arrive they will be around for most of the day again
on Thursday.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower activity will persist across the northeast portion of the
area overnight with a medium (40-60%) Chances for rain will be
greater (40-60%) generally near and north of the Interstate 20
corridor today with lower (10-40%) chances across the southern
portion of the area. chance of activity across the east-central
and northeast counties with lower chances (10-30) across much of
the rest of the area. Minimum relative humidity values will be in
the mid to upper 50 percent range across the far southeast with
higher values north and west followed by high humidity overnight
areawide with the minimums in the mid to upper 50 percent range on
Thursday afternoon across the southeast portion of the forecast
area.

&&

.CLIMATE....

Record high temperatures:

Thursday, February 6...

Birmingham: 77
Montgomery: 82Wednesday, February 5...

Birmingham: 76
Montgomery: 82
Tuscaloosa: 81
Anniston:   74

Tuscaloosa: 80
Anniston:   76

Friday, February 7...

Birmingham: 79
Montgomery: 81
Tuscaloosa: 82
Anniston:   80

Saturday, February 8...

Birmingham: 83
Montgomery: 81
Tuscaloosa: 84
Anniston:   80

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     57  74  57  73 /  50  30  50  40
Anniston    58  73  60  75 /  50  20  50  40
Birmingham  58  74  60  76 /  40  30  50  40
Tuscaloosa  58  77  60  79 /  30  20  20  20
Calera      58  74  61  77 /  30  20  30  30
Auburn      57  74  60  76 /  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  58  77  61  79 /  10  20  10  20
Troy        57  77  60  78 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION.../61/