964
FXUS64 KBMX 081143
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
543 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2024

High pressure to the north and a low pressure developing over the
plains will bring northeasterly to easterly flow at the surface,
with easterly to southeasterly flow in the mid levels. This will
allow for plenty of moisture and overcast skies through late this
morning. Fog development is expected, though with the overcast
skies and light winds forecasted, coverage might be more patchy
than widespread. Will keep an eye on how quickly the low cloud
deck moves over the state, and if a Dense Fog Advisory will be
needed.

Models are showing variations in coverage for light rain across
central Alabama through the late morning and early afternoon.
Soundings are saturated and PW values will be around max
climatologically, around 1.6 inches and higher, mostly in the
southern half of the state. Scattered light rain/drizzle is possible
in any activity that moves through in the morning from isentropic
lift, otherwise, the area will remain dry but overcast. In the early
afternoon through the evening, an area of low level convergence will
bring activity to the western fringes of the state. Models are
slowing down on arrival time of activity, so have scattered light
showers moving into the west and northwestern counties in the early
afternoon, and remaining through the night. Instabilities are
meager, but shear does increase in the late afternoon/early evening,
so would expect a chance for a decent shower in these counties if
the line doesn`t continue on it`s slower time of arrival trend.

Saturday, the focus of activity should move southeastward as the
high pressure over the TN Valley moves east, and a low pressure
system moves towards the MS River Valley. Mid level winds will
increase, with breezy winds expected through the day. Shear will
increase through the day, with instability higher in the western
quarter of the state. Scattered showers will continue, increasing in
coverage across the northwestern third of the area.

Temperatures should remain well above normal for this time of year
with the southerly and easterly flow prevailing, and cloud cover
keeping temperature variations mild overnight and Friday
afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2024

A more progressive pattern looks to develop next week as an upper-
level trough and subtropical jet shoves ridging over the East Coast
further into the Atlantic and suppresses it. Meanwhile, Hurricane
Rafael will meander westward across the Gulf of Mexico, having no
impact to Central Alabama other than to send some moisture
northward. A surface low will lift from the Central Plains across
the Great Lakes region and into eastern Canada Saturday night
through Monday as a cold front moves into the Lower MS River Valley,
becoming more east to west oriented and meandering across Central
Alabama before high pressure builds back in on Tuesday. There will
be periods of scattered to numerous showers with a few
thunderstorms, mainly across western portions of the area, beginning
Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. As the surface low
lifts further away on Monday, rain chances will decrease as forcing
weakens along the front and dry mid-level air rushes in from the
west, but it will be cloudy with some isolated to scattered showers
around during the day. In general, temperatures look to return to a
more seasonable range next week compared to what we`ve been
experiencing as of late.

Zonal mid to upper-level flow develops on Tuesday with pleasant
weather expected. A second trough and associated front will move
through the area by Wednesday and Thursday bringing another increase
in rain chances, but models diverge on the strength of the front and
how far south the trough extends into the region, so the
amount/coverage of rain we will see is still in question.
Regardless, it appears a cooler airmass could arrive towards the end
of the week as we settle beneath deep, northwesterly flow.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2024

Southwest flow will continue to bring moisture to the area, with
low clouds advecting across central Alabama. MVFR and IFR
ceilings are prevailing, with VFR ceilings expected after sunrise
as mixing occurs. A few scattered light showers are possible this
afternoon, though confidence with timing and coverage was too low
to put in any TAF at this time. MVFR ceilings will once again be
possible after sunset with high low level moisture content.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daytime minimum RHs will remain well above critical thresholds for
the next few days with moisture increasing this weekend as a
front moves towards the area. 20 ft winds will be from the
northwest today at 5 to 8 mph then gradually become southeasterly
at 5 to 10 mph by Saturday. There will be some opportunities for
rain, primarily across the western half of Central Alabama, this
weekend as the front moves closer to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     80  60  75  59 /  10  10  30  40
Anniston    80  64  75  61 /  10  10  20  30
Birmingham  82  65  76  64 /  10  20  30  40
Tuscaloosa  82  68  78  66 /  10  20  30  40
Calera      81  67  78  65 /  10  10  20  40
Auburn      77  68  76  62 /  10  10  10  20
Montgomery  81  70  81  67 /  20  10  10  20
Troy        77  68  80  65 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...24