488
FXUS64 KBMX 081827
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
127 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

As of writing, a thin line of showers have developed across our
southeastern areas as a cold front pushes south across Central AL.
Look for this activity to continue as a low level moisture
convergence axis has developed within a region of deeper moisture
across our southeastern areas. Drier air is already beginning to
filter in from the north with GOES TPW imagery down to around
1.3". PWATs will continue to fall to around 1". This is influx of
drier air will allow for lows tonight to drop into the low to mid
50s across our northern tier of counties. Highs tomorrow will
struggle to break out of the 70s across our eastern areas as wedge
flow takes shape. Our western areas top out in the low to mid 80s.
Otherwise, there is a low chance for patchy fog early Thursday
morning. While time-heights aren`t screaming fog, there may be
enough dry air aloft with some lingering low level moisture to
prompt brief pockets of patchy fog.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

Not much change with the long term forecast. Another cool night is
on tap of Thursday night with lows back into the 50s for most.
Guidance hints at a H5 vort max swinging through on Friday but
with little moisture in place, not expecting any rainfall. Just
some passing upper level clouds. Upper ridging begins to build in
over the weekend, leading to a gradual warming trend with highs
back into the mid 80s by early next week. Warm and rain-free
conditions over the next week will lead to a likely worsening of
our ongoing drought conditions across the state. The next drought
monitor update comes out tomorrow.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

Some lingering low to mid level clouds remain across the region
early this afternoon. Opted for a MVFR TEMPO at TCL for a couple
of hours to account for this. A thin line of showers recently
developed along a southward moving boundary. At this point, all
activity is south of our terminals. Winds are likely to pick up to
around 10-12 knots this afternoon. There is a moderate chance for
gusts around 20 knots through this evening. Confidence was not
high enough to include at all terminals at this time. If we see
sustain gusts, amendments will be needed. Easterly winds increase
Thursday morning at AUO/MGM as wedge flow develops. VFR persists
through this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slight rain chances are in the forecast today across the southern
and southeastern counties. However, widespread wetting rainfall is
not expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the
worsening drought. Min RH values will range from 45-55% through
Thursday, dropping to 35-45% on Friday through the weekend. Winds
today will be generally northerly up to 10-12 mph. Winds may be
breezy at times with a moderate chance of gusts up to 20 MPH
through the afternoon today. Outdoor burning remains highly
discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  76  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    61  77  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  61  79  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  83  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      61  83  57  79 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      65  78  56  75 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  65  82  59  78 /   0  10   0   0
Troy        65  80  58  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo