Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
316 FXUS64 KBMX 040703 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 203 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025 Computer model guidance continues to paint a generally dry weather pattern across central Alabama in the short term. Most outdoor activities should be able to proceed without any rain issues. The only place with POPs as high as 20 or 30 percent the next couple days will be south of Interstate 85. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies, typical mid-summer temperatures and humidity levels, and light winds can be expected. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 146 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025 Through the remainder of the long holiday weekend, and into next week, the story will be the gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm chances each day. While we can get a general sense of increased convection each day, there`s no obvious day that stands out with even a marginal chance of severe storms. As for temperatures, heat index values could get up close to 100 degrees in a few spots toward the middle of next week. We will eventually need to watch for specifics, for consideration of heat related hazard products. /61/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025 Will continue to forecast VFR conditions across central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Short term models continue to suggest mainly fair weather cumulus clouds from mid morning through the afternoon. Best chances of convection should be south of all TAF locations, including MGM. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Overall a dry forecast for most of the area this holiday weekend. A few isolated showers/storms may develop in the southeast today or Saturday with a better chance on Sunday, but still the hit and miss summertime variety. Min RH will remain well above critical thresholds through the weekend, with generally light winds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 70 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 92 71 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 94 73 94 72 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 0 Auburn 91 72 91 70 / 10 0 10 10 Montgomery 93 72 93 71 / 20 10 10 10 Troy 92 71 92 70 / 20 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.../61/ LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...02