Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
047 FXUS64 KBMX 091803 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals an upper ridge building in out west as a shortwave trough slides across the southeast. While most will remain dry today, we do have low chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as surface convergences is maximized along an inverted surface trough. Any activity will be relatively short-lived and generally shift from the NE to SW as the trough axis shifts towards Mississippi. Generally rain-free conditions are in store on Friday as drier air spreads across the region. With that said, there is a very low (10-15%) chance for precip across our far SE areas as a few ribbons of H5 vorticity wrap around an upper low to our east. Temperatures will be rather pleasant over the next couple of days with lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025 Very little change needed to the long term forecast. Dry conditions continue as upper level ridging builds in. This will lead to a gradual warming trend over the weekend into next week with highs rebounding back into the mid to upper 80s. The latest Drought Monitor update was released this morning. It was no surprise to see drought conditions worsening and expanding across the region. With little rain in the forecast, this trend will likely continue. 95/Castillo Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025 Over the weekend, a large area of low pressure is expected to develop north of the Bahamas near the Carolina coast, placing our area on the subsident (dry) side of this system. Temperatures will gradually trend upward during the weekend into the upcoming week as sprawling 500 mb ridge builds in from the west. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025 GOES satellite imagery reveals some low to mid level clouds spreading across Central AL. This will lead to brief MVFR ceilings over the next couple of hours. Winds will generally be out of the east from 5-10 knots through much of this cycle. However, winds will pick up at ASN/AUO/MGM tomorrow morning with gusts around 20 knots likely. VFR conditions prevail overnight through Friday morning. There is a low chance for isolated showers/storms this afternoon. However, confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... There is a low chance of isolated showers/storms this afternoon and evening. However, rainfall amounts will be very limited. Min RH values will range from 40-60% this afternoon, dropping to 35-45% for Friday through the weekend. East-northeast winds, from 8-12 MPH, will continue on Friday. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 54 76 52 79 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 55 75 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 59 78 56 79 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 80 54 82 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 58 79 53 82 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 58 75 56 79 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 78 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 58 75 56 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo