473
FXUS64 KBMX 302340
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
640 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 639 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

- Heat: Moderate heat risk for the southwestern areas today, as
  afternoon heat indices will near 105 degrees.

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe
  thunderstorms across the much of the northern half of Alabama
  Saturday. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Confidence is increasing in elevated rain chances
  and potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools
  ahead of an incoming boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

Focus of convection this afternoon is near a stalled out frontal
boundary in the southern portion of the forecast area. That will
remain the case over the next 18 to 24 hours.

That front is forecast to push back northward during the day on
Friday, in advance of an upper level shortwave trough forecast to
to dig into the eastern states. PWATs and instability will also
start to increase by late Friday. The upper level trough and
associated surface low will provide a substantial amount of lift
on Saturday, much more than we typically see in this time of year.
This will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the
increased instability, lowering heights and 500mb temperatures,
and the forcing associated with the trough, numerous storms are
likely to develop. The main question on potential severity is
whether the shear will ample enough to organize storms to a
sufficient level. Regardless of storm severity, heavy rain will be
a concern as well, especially if the upper low slows down and
helps deep tropical moisture continue to feed into our region.

Early next week, we should transition back to a more typical
summertime pattern, with daily diurnally driven convection.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026

Haze from smoke will likely remain an issue at TCL and EET the
next 24-hours, with both terminals carrying reduced VIS because
of it. Otherwise, terminals will remain in VFR category for most
of the evening and morning tomorrow. Past 31/20z, additional
showers and storms are possible at TCL, MGM, and AUO as a weak
disturbance moves into the region. However, confidence was only
high enough to introduce PROB30 groups at this time.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in
check for the week.  MinRH values are expected to remain above
50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in
from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around
40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  92  71  87 /   0   0  30  90
Anniston    67  90  72  85 /   0   0  40 100
Birmingham  72  92  73  87 /   0  10  50  80
Tuscaloosa  74  92  74  89 /  10  40  50  70
Calera      71  93  73  88 /   0  20  50  80
Auburn      72  90  74  83 /   0  20  30 100
Montgomery  73  93  73  88 /  20  40  40  80
Troy        72  91  72  86 /  30  60  40  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../44/