106
FXUS64 KBMX 240625
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
125 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025

- Medium to high chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees and
  air temperatures exceeding 95 degrees today and Wednesday, with
  the hottest conditions expected on Wednesday.

- Showers and storms return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon,
  with a Level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk of damaging winds during the
  afternoon and evening hours.

- Low to medium chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees in
  northern portions of Central Alabama Thursday, with potential
  for strong storms as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025

An initially strong subtropical ridge will retrograde
southwestward from the Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Tennessee Valley
while gradually weakening today and tomorrow. Meanwhile an upper
low in the the Western Atlantic will retrograde southwestward
across the Bahamas, eventually reaching South Florida. Highs in
the mid 90s will be common across Central Alabama today. Dew
points will mix down some in the afternoon, but heat indices will
max out in the 102 to 107 degree range. Highs Wednesday will be in
the upper 90s, with readings near 100 degrees in our southeast
counties. This will result in more widespread max heat indices
reaching or exceeding 105 degrees. A heat advisory remains in
effect for all of Central Alabama today and tomorrow.

Ridging and lower PWATs will largely suppress convection this
afternoon. But given the very warm temperatures, would expect some
rogue showers or storms to pop up though with coverage only being
10% or less. On Wednesday afternoon and evening, latest model
runs including CAMs are showing an increasing trend in showers and
storms developing, necessitating an increase in PoPs above NBM.
This will take place as moisture wraps back around the ridge from
the northeast, and as the upper low approaches. A tightening mid-
level height gradient will result in an modest increase in the
mid-level flow across Georgia. Forecast soundings indicate steep
lapse rates both at low-levels and mid-levels with some cooler
500mb temps associated with the low and the very warm temperatures
at the surface. Some inverted-V profiles are also indicated. This
will be a very favorable environment for microbursts/downbursts,
and will begin messaging a threat for severe storms. Will have to
keep an eye out for any westward/southwestward moving MCSs or
storm clusters/organizing cold pools upstream, which in this case
would actually be Georgia, which would increase the severe threat.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025

The upper low will drift northwestward on Thursday, eventually
slowly spinning down across the AL/GA/FL Panhandle regions over
the weekend. This weakness in the ridge and PWATs increasing to
around 2 inches will result in high rain chances and somewhat lower
temperatures/heat indices. Depending on lingering boundaries/cold
pools, the heat advisory may need to be extended into Thursday
for some areas prior to convection re-firing, but heat indices
will be more borderline. Similarly, some potential for isolated
severe storms may continue into Thursday depending on what happens
Wednesday night. Beyond Thursday, heat index values look to top
out around 100 to 104 each day but will be dependent on
convection.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025

This morning there will be low to medium chances of MVFR fog
around sunrise at the usual suspects of TCL/ASN/EET, though there
hasn`t been much fog the past couple mornings. Best chances may be
at TCL which received some rain yesterday afternoon. There will be
a very low but non-zero risk of afternoon shower or storm, but
probabilities are much too low to mention in the TAF. Winds remain
light and variable.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot conditions are expected today and tomorrow with RH values
mainly falling into the 40 to 50 percent range. A few locations in
far southeast Central Alabama will drop into the upper 30s.
Scattered showers and storms with gusty winds return to the
forecast tomorrow afternoon. A return to a more moist air mass and
a wetter pattern is expected Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  72  96  72 /   0   0  20  20
Anniston    95  73  95  72 /   0   0  20  20
Birmingham  95  75  96  74 /   0   0  20  20
Tuscaloosa  95  75  96  75 /  10   0  20  20
Calera      95  74  96  73 /   0   0  20  30
Auburn      95  76  95  72 /   0  10  30  30
Montgomery  96  74  97  73 /  10  10  40  30
Troy        96  74  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-
Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32/JDavis
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...32/JDavis