982
FXUS64 KBMX 082313
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
613 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025

Going with a status quo forecast for now with no big changes.
Given the abundance of sun in the northwest, expect these areas to
be near or exceed the convection temperatures this afternoon. Any
shower/storm that gets going may persist through sunset, so added
in some slight chance PoPs through 10 pm, although it may be more
like 8 pm. The ridge builds in a little more on Saturday, but
edges northward. The main clouds and precipitation will be
primarily across the southern portions of the area with the
highest rain chances along and south of I-85. Did adjust the highs
in the north upwards a few degrees above guidance with more sun.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025

The persistent wedge high remains in place across the East Coast,
maintaining easterly low-level flow across Central Alabama. A
strong mid-level anticyclone remains centered over New Mexico
with a ridge axis extending northeastward to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. A broad/disorganized 500mb height weakness remains across
the Southeast CONUS. Another surge of dry northeasterly flow moves
down the East Coast and into Central Alabama today, causing dew
points to mix out some and limiting convective coverage to 10
percent or less in most areas. One potential exception is our
northwest counties where some 20 PoPs have been added per the HREF
thunder probabilities and NBM 5.0 PoPs. Here MLCAPE will be
slightly higher with more moisture and potential influence of a
shortwave in water vapor imagery currently moving southward across
Missouri. Still, overall it will be a relatively pleasant day for
early August.

Mid-level ridging builds across the eastern CONUS on Saturday,
while some tropical (PWATs > 2 in) moisture begins to move into
Central Alabama from the southeast. Moisture return continues to
trend slower, however, given the dry easterly flow from the wedge.
PoPs have trended lower, and will note that the HREF members are
much drier than the global ensemble members.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025

The forecast concept remains the same as previous, so little
changes were required. Sunday does look a touch warmer than
guidance in the northwest, so went with a blend and slightly
higher than guidance. The same blend keeps temperatures about the
same in the southeast, where the higher rain chances are, raising
confidence as the wider range of probabilities gives the same
numbers as the guidance. For next week, we continue the normal
summer weather with afternoon/evening slow moving storms and
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025

Mid-level ridging persists across the eastern CONUS through the
rest of the period, though with a few embedded disturbances.
Subtropical ridging also tries to build westward from the western
Atlantic. However, with PWATs at or above 2 inches and increased
1000-500mb mean RH values, diurnal convective coverage will be
above normal. Slow-moving storms will also be capable of producing
heavy rainfall. Despite the ridging, the increased coverage of
convection should keep temperatures in check, with only low
chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees by Thursday.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Another round of low level stratus develops through the morning
hours tomorrow for all terminals but TCL. VFR gradually returns by
mid morning for most with AUO holding onto MVFR cigs for a bit
longer. Winds will be a tad stronger at MGM/AUO tomorrow afternoon
with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming
days. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be most focused on the
afternoon to evening time frame, though these will be more
isolated through tomorrow. 20-foot winds will be light, except
variable and gusty in and near showers and thunderstorms. Better
rain chances in the south and east starting Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  90  69  89 /  10  10   0  30
Anniston    69  87  71  86 /  10  20  10  40
Birmingham  71  89  72  88 /  10  10   0  40
Tuscaloosa  72  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  40
Calera      70  88  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
Auburn      70  86  71  86 /  10  30  10  60
Montgomery  71  89  72  90 /   0  30  10  50
Troy        70  87  71  87 /   0  40  10  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo