Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
751 FXUS64 KBMX 070541 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 A weak surface low located over Arkansas is helping promote showers across the western third of Central Alabama during the early morning hours. The surface low will be overtaken by a cold front sweeping across the Plains later today as the front works southeastward. Shower activity will gradually affect more of the central and northeastern counties throughout the day, as the front begins approaching from the north. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as shower coverage expands. Rain amounts will be limited, however. Highest totals will be across northwestern counties, where rainfall is already ongoing. As the front works south of the area by Wednesday, some CAMs hint at the possibility of redevelopment in southeastern counties by Wednesday afternoon. Have included a 30% rain chance south of the I- 85 corridor, which should end by sunset. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with 70s to low 80s Thursday and area-wide 70s Friday. Higher terrain areas of east-central Alabama may be in the upper 60s to low 70s both days. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas south of I-85 on Thursday. The end of the extended looks dry, and rain chances earlier in the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 MVFR cigs are possible this morning after 10 or 11z, lasting until around midday. A cold front will be approaching the area, with showers and occasional thunderstorms. Confidence on thunder at terminals is low, but did include a PROB30 for SHRA at BHM, TCL, EET, and ASN for the afternoon and early evening hours. Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for EET due to a comms outage. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances are in the forecast today through Wednesday. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through Thursday. Winds today will be generally southerly up to 8-10 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 65 82 60 / 40 40 20 0 Anniston 83 68 82 61 / 30 30 20 10 Birmingham 85 68 82 62 / 40 40 20 0 Tuscaloosa 86 68 85 60 / 40 30 10 0 Calera 86 68 85 62 / 30 30 20 0 Auburn 85 68 84 65 / 10 20 30 10 Montgomery 87 70 86 66 / 20 20 20 10 Troy 85 68 86 65 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12