779
FXUS64 KBMX 070451
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1151 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

- Heat Indices: While slightly cooler temperatures arrive today,
  heat indices will still reach 100-105 degrees. Humidity levels
  will be slightly lower, but please continue to practice heat
  safety.

- Rain and Storms: Drier conditions today and Tuesday will shift
  rain activity toward the south. By mid-week, rising humidity
  will lead to an increased chance for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Isolated showers and storms remain possible (10 to 20%) through
4 AM, primarily across the southeast. Given the earlier rainfall,
patchy fog is anticipated across the east through sunrise.

For the upcoming day, surface flow becomes easterly, resulting in
a slight drop in temperatures and dew points. Drier air aloft
moving in from the north will limit convective potential across
the northern third of the (CWA), while scattered storms remain in
the forecast south of I-20. Afternoon surface dew points are
expected to mix into the upper 60s to lower 70s, keeping heat
indices just below Heat Advisory criteria. While no advisory is
anticipated for Monday, heat indices will rise to 100-105 degrees.
The easterly surface flow will strengthen as the pressure
gradient tightens near the surface ridge over the Appalachians.
Expect wind gusts near 20 mph, providing heat relief for eastern
and northeastern counties.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to amplify by midweek. High
confidence exists that rising heights and drier air aloft will
limit rain chances to the I-85 corridor and points south through
Wednesday. Meanwhile, global deterministic guidance maintains
consistency in moving an upper-level low westward over the
northern Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday, transporting additional
tropical moisture northward. Consequently, diurnal shower and
storm chances are expected to increase, with highs reaching the
low to mid-90s. By the end of the week, an upper trough will dive
toward the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will approach the
region by Friday and Saturday; however, current guidance indicates
limited upper-level support for the front to penetrate as far
south as Central Alabama.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

The majority of the showers and storms have dissipated across the
area this evening, although a few isolated cells remain possible
through the evening hours. Coverage is currently too limited to
warrant further mention of precipitation. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period as storm activity
diminishes overnight and winds become light and variable.
Easterly surface winds will develop on Monday, becoming gusty at
times during the afternoon. We are maintaining a 30% probability
of convection at MGM and AUO during the afternoon hours, given
the potential for sufficient localized coverage.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next
week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-30%) through
midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. Fire weather
concerns remain low for now, but decreasing soil moisture will
elevate these risks by the end of the week if beneficial rainfall
remains scarce.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  91  70  90 /   0  10  10  10
Anniston    71  89  70  88 /  10  20  20  10
Birmingham  73  93  72  89 /  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  98  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
Calera      73  94  72  90 /  10  20  20  10
Auburn      72  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  20
Montgomery  73  95  73  92 /  20  30  20  20
Troy        71  94  70  90 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16