998
FXUS64 KBMX 050025
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
725 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 712 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across
   Central Alabama during the pre-dawn and into the daytime hours
   on Sunday. The threats include isolated tornadoes, damaging
   wind gusts, and large hail.

-  Record-breaking high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
   degrees are expected once again on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

This afternoon.

A highly amplified pattern persists in the mid levels over much
of the country with deep troughing over the Four Corners states
while subtropical ridging remains centered off the Southeast
Atlantic Coast. A swift southwest flow in the mid-levels persists
from over South Texas northeast to over much of the West-Central
Ohio River Valley Region. Toward the surface, a stationary front
extends from across South Texas that extends northeast towards the
ArkLaTex and Mid-South Regions then stretches further northeast
across Northern Tennessee and into South-Central Virginia. The
front tamaracks an atypical abnormally warm and humid airmass to
the southeast while cooler and drier air reside to its northwest.
Parallel mid-level flow to the front is preventing much synoptic-
scale forcing to be applied to this boundary, resulting in it
maintaining its position.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with low
(10-20%) chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the
western quarter of the forecast area. Any storms that manage to
develop may be strong to severe, but this potential is very low.
High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher
terrain east to readings near 90 across the west. Winds will be
breezy from the southeast at 12-24 mph.

Tonight.

A northern stream trough will move east over the Northern Plains
while a closed upper low will move east over Southeast Arizona.
Mid- level ridging will remain centered over the Southwest
Atlantic Basin north of the Bahamas while the southwest flow aloft
persists over much of the the Southern Plains extending northwest
over much of the Ohio River Valley. A surface cold front will
advance southeast across the Northern into the Central Plains
ahead of the northern stream trough while the persistent
stationary front lingers extending from South Texas northeast into
the Mid-South and east into the Southern Mid-Atlantic States.

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast overnight with thicker clouds
northwest an far west where a low (10-15%) chance for showers and
perhaps a storm or two will remain possible. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s far east to the lower 70s
far west. Winds will remain from the southeast with speeds from
7-14 mph.

Saturday.

The northern stream trough will move further east, becoming
centered just west of Lake Superior by mid afternoon while the
deep mid-level trough will become centered over Southern New
Mexico. The fast southwest flow aloft will shift further southeast
from over Southeast Texas extending northeast over the Tennessee
and Ohio River Valley Regions. The cold front will over the
Central and Northern Plains will continue to push Southeast into
the Ozarks and Mid-Mississippi River Valley Regions through the
day. The stationary front will also begin moving southeast as a
cold front as it pushes into Mississippi and Central Tennessee
during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

Clouds will increase further through the day Saturday with shower
and thunderstorm chances rising across the western portion of the
area from morning through midday, then activity will gradually
expand eastward with time through the afternoon. This pre-frontal
activity will have limited severe weather potential but the risk
for severe weather will increase in the evening and through the
overnight hours as favorable mid and upper level dynamical forcing
and features approach the area from the west and northwest. High
temperatures will range from the mid 80s far northwest and in the
higher terrain east to readings in the upper 80s far south and far
west. Winds will be breezy from the south at 12-24 mph.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

I`m sure I sound like a broken record at this point, but really not
much is changing with the long-term forecast from day to day. As
such, the weather story will remain a two-parter. The first is still
the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather Sunday AM,
lingering into the afternoon hours. Where the second is the swing
into well below average temperatures to start the new workweek.

Rain should begin to increase as early as tomorrow, as the
stationary cold front finally begins to shift east. By Saturday
night, a line of heavy thunderstorms should begin to work into our
western zones, continuing east throughout the day. Just like I
previously mentioned, the SPC has maintained the slight risk for Day
2, and carried a new Slight risk over into day 3. The main threat
remains damaging winds, but somewhat favorable low-level profiles
won`t entirely rule out a tornado or two. The other caveat here is
discrete convection ahead of the line. If storms were to remain
discrete, there is a somewhat narrow corridor of steeper mid-level
lapse rates ahead of the main line. This means that these storms
would also be capable of producing large hail, but this scenario
seems to be the "less likely" one as of right now.

The other things still work mentioning with this line will be the
very heavy rainfall rates anticipated. 2-4 inches of rain will be
possible in a very short period of time, which could result in some
localized flooding and flash flooding in some areas.

From there, things clear out by the start of the new workweek, with
beautiful conditions expected through the middle of the workweek.
Afternoon highs are expected to range in the 60s, with overnight
lows dropping into the upper-30s and low-40s. However, the pattern
will shift again closer to the weekend, and afternoon highs will
begin to rebounds back into mid and upper-70s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2025

VFR TAFs are expected for this evening and then MVFR cigs should
develop/swing again into C AL from the S/SW from 06-09z. It is
expected to stop short of making it to ASN/ANB, and I`ll forgo a
mention for them for now. All sites should go back to VFR by 17z.
Gusty SRLY winds should begin to taper down during the late
evening, but may stay up a little. Gusts will again be possible
during the day on Saturday. Rain chances are expected to return
during Saturday afternoon ahead of a front. Have a prob30 for
SHRA for TCL after 21z. However, chances are too low to mention
anywhere else.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will begin to climb by Saturday, as better moisture
begins to flow into the region. Because of this, winds will remain
pretty steady from the south between 10-15 MPH on Saturday. Rain
chances will greatly increase into Sunday, with 2-4 inches of
rainfall anticipated through the evening hours. However, things
should begin to dry out to start the new workweek, with no
additional rainfall anticipated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT THU APR 4 2025

Forecast high temperatures will continue to be near record values
once again on Saturday, April 5th. The table below shows current
record high temperatures for Saturday.

                April 5

Anniston        88
Birmingham      88
Tuscaloosa      89
Montgomery      91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  88  66  74 /   0  20  30  90
Anniston    65  87  68  75 /   0  10  20  90
Birmingham  69  88  68  73 /   0  20  40  90
Tuscaloosa  70  88  68  75 /  20  30  70  90
Calera      68  87  69  73 /   0  20  30  90
Auburn      67  86  67  77 /   0   0   0  80
Montgomery  68  88  69  78 /   0   0  10  90
Troy        67  87  68  78 /   0   0   0  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...08