392
FXUS64 KBMX 150334
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1034 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

- Major to Extreme Heat: A significant heat risk is expected to
  persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week,
  with heat indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat
  advisories are in effect.

- Convection: A summertime convective pattern persists with 20-50%
  rain chances, primarily favoring southern areas while
  north-central Alabama remains mostly dry.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

The main story over the next several days will be our prolonged
and dangerous heat wave. A strengthening upper level ridge will
lead to increasing temperatures over the weekend and into next
week. Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s for most
of the region through Monday. Those across our western areas will
see readings around 100-101 degrees at times. Continued humid
conditions will keep heat indices generally in the 105-109 range.
A few locations may briefly see heat indices in the 110-112 range
over the weekend. Similar to our thinking last night, the areal
coverage will likely not be widespread enough to warrant an
upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning at this time. We will
continue to monitor the trends and upgrade if necessary. Heat
Advisories are currently in effect through Sunday evening.

This pattern will continue to promote a typically summertime
convection regime with low to moderate (20-50%) chances for
showers and storms. Greatest chances for showers and storms will
be across our southern areas as deeper moisture spreads inland.
Those across central and north-central Alabama will likely remain
dry as ridging helps keep a lid on things. However, an isolated
shower or storm wouldn`t be surprising across north-central
Alabama.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are currently in place across all
terminals and are likely to persist through this cycle.
Convection is beginning to wane across our southeastern areas.
However, there is a low chance for additional development through
the evening as outflow boundaries linger. Due to low confidence,
opted to not include in the TAF at this time. There is also a low
chance for patchy MVFR fog early Saturday morning for those that
received rain today. Another round of convection is likely across
our southern areas tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, have introduced
a PROB30 for TSRA at AUO/MGM.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with
MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western
and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the
period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the next several days, with the greatest
chances across our southern areas. Elevated fire weather concerns
will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to
increase if rain-free conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  97  75 100 /  10  10   0   0
Anniston    75  95  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  77  97  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      76  97  75  99 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      76  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
Montgomery  77  98  76  99 /  10  30  10   0
Troy        75  96  75  98 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo