195
FXUS64 KBMX 041109
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
609 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025

-  A Flood Watch is in effect across east Alabama through Tuesday
   evening. Periods of heavy, slow-moving showers and
   thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025

Monday:

A plume of showers and a few thunderstorms is likely to blossom
this morning across east Alabama into Georgia as a compact mid-
level wave interacts with isentropic lift and a swath of high
vertical moisture content (PWATS as high as ~2.25 inches). While
there is a bit of flow aloft from a 500 mb trough that should
cause most of the activity to have some forward speed, effects
from the wedge extending down the lee of Appalachia could
counteract this in areas and result in clusters of slow-moving
activity. Some short-range guidance show the potential for
several inches of rain to occur over a short period of time,
influenced by high rainfall rates and training activity. In areas
where this occurs, there will be a risk for flash flooding.

The main area of showers and thunderstorms should become more
focused across Georgia by mid to late afternoon as the shortwave
continues to track to the northeast; however, short-range models
indicate a focused axis of low-level lift will persist across
parts of east/southeast Alabama through Monday night. Should this
occur, additional clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
develop with a renewed risk of flash flooding.

Tuesday:

The interaction of a trough overhead and ridging across the west
Atlantic will maintain a plume of high moisture content and lift
across the Southeast U.S. Parts of east/southeast Alabama could
remain involved within waves of heavy showers and thunderstorms,
though the best signal for this continues to be over Georgia. Due
to the occurrence of rainfall over days prior and general
proximity, the Flood Watch has been extended through Tuesday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025

There is not a lot of change in the overall mid-level weather
pattern across the region over the next several days, featuring a
trough in our vicinity, between high pressure systems to the west
and east. Areas of surface low pressure will exist just off the
Southeast U.S. where the bulk of precipitation will occur, with
isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
for central Alabama. High temperatures will average in the 80s
across the area.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025

Low CIGS are expected to remain for this entire TAF period, with
terminals fluctuating between IFR/MVFR. Showers are also expected
today, with the greatest confidence and coverage near KMGM and
KAUO. These showers will likely result in reduced VIS as well.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming
days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused
on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be
light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  65  79  66 /  50  50  50  30
Anniston    75  66  78  68 /  70  50  60  40
Birmingham  78  68  80  69 /  40  40  50  20
Tuscaloosa  82  69  86  70 /  40  20  40  20
Calera      77  68  82  70 /  50  40  60  30
Auburn      74  68  80  70 /  80  70  80  50
Montgomery  80  71  83  70 /  80  60  70  30
Troy        80  70  83  69 /  80  60  80  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following counties:
Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-
Elmore-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Talladega-
Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION.../44/