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FXUS64 KBMX 121147
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
647 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025

The upper level trough axis has swung east of Central Alabama
early this morning with dry northerly to northwest flow across the
atmospheric profile over the Deep South. Mostly clear skies are
overhead across much of the CWA, aside from some leftover low-
level moisture and lingering patches of stratus across northeast
Alabama. With dry air continuing to advect in from the northwest,
we aren`t expecting these clouds to expand in areal coverage more
than what is currently observed on the GOES-19 Night Fog product.
In addition, widespread fog formation is not anticipated except
for shallow fog along the river basins and larger lakes. With
radiational cooling ongoing, the forecast remains on track for
temperatures to drop into the upper 30s along the U.S. 278
corridor from Marion to Cherokee County, while everyone else will
drop into the low to mid 40s by daybreak.

As the upper trough departs to the east during the day today, upper
level ridging will build in from the west while northerly to
northwest flow will continue at the surface. We`ll still have a bit
of a pressure gradient to deal with between the surface ridge to our
north and lower pressure over the Atlantic coast this afternoon.
Breezy conditions with prevailing winds between 10 and 15mph with
gusts up to 20mph can be expected as one more shot of cool, drier
air moves southward. Under full sunshine, high temperatures are
forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s areawide.
With the drier air in place and calm conditions overnight tonight,
another chilly morning will be in store on Sunday. Our typically
cooler locations in the northern and northeastern counties should be
able to drop into the mid 30s, and we`ll have to keep an eye on the
potential for frost formation. For now, frost has been added to the
forecast for a few hours before daybreak to highlight the potential
in these locations. At the moment, overall extent of the frost is
expected to be localized enough to prevent the need for an advisory,
but forecast trends will be monitored through the day today.

The diurnal spread will be very large during the day on Sunday,
as temperatures skyrocket into the mid and upper 70s as a warm air
advection regime returns. Upper level ridging will also continue
to build into the area with a decent 500mb ridge centered over
the Louisiana coast. Although the southerly flow will return at
the surface, the Gulf moisture is advertised to take a little more
time to advect northward with dewpoints potentially mixing down
into the lower 30s across eastern counties of the CWA. With that
said, fire weather conditions could become somewhat of a concern,
but thankfully surface winds should remain under 10 knots where
the driest air will be present. Otherwise, very tranquil spring
conditions will be in store for folks to get out and about.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025

Most of the extended period will be warm and dry as the pattern will
be predominantly influenced by subtropical ridging over the Gulf. A
weak cold front will pass through the area Monday night into
Tuesday, possibly bringing a few isolated to scattered showers, but
amounts will be light. Temperatures will be mild for a couple days
behind the front, then the ridging really begins to take hold for
the second half of the week with a few days of highs in the 80s and
mostly sunny skies. Another front looks to move towards the region
by the end of the week, but it remains to be seen whether or not it
will be able to push through the ridge or if it stalls to our north
over the Tennessee Valley.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025

All terminals are observing VFR conditions and clear skies as we
approach 12z. Clear skies are expected to continue with calm to
variable winds this morning increasing by this afternoon around
10 knots from the northwest with a few gusts approaching 20 knots.
Winds quickly diminish after sunset with clear skies and VFR
conditions through the end of the forecast period.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The fire weather forecast over the next three days will feature
rain-free days under full sunshine, which is expected to
significantly dry surface soil moisture and available fuels.
First for today, another shot of dry air will advect in from the
north with dewpoints expected to mix down into the lower 30s this
afternoon. 20ft winds will remain elevated with gusts between 15
and 20mph from the northwest. MinRH values have been adjusted
downward into the upper 20s to near 30 percent areawide with
transport winds also from the north between 15 and 20mph.

With dry air remaining in place at the surface during the day on
Sunday, much warmer daytime temperatures will cause minRH values
to drop down into the 20s, potentially below 25 percent
across eastern and southeastern Alabama. Thankfully, 20ft winds
are expected to be lower, with max winds between 10 and 15mph and
transport winds shifting over from the south. Looking at long-
range forecast trends, fire weather concerns are expected to
increase as a dry pattern sets up over the Deep South with no
appreciable rainfall expected over at least the next 7 to 10
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  35  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    66  35  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  66  41  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  41  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      67  41  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      67  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  69  42  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        69  42  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...56/GDG