773
FXUS64 KBMX 192240
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
540 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

Increased PoPs across the eastern portions of the area through 10
pm to account for the outflow associated activity moving in from
Georgia. Really do not expect the activity to make it too far into
the area, but will remain a focus for showers and storms as it
drifts in.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

A lingering convergent boundary remains stretched across Central AL
today, which will help lead to some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon across a good portion of
the area. Otherwise, the main impact today will again be the high
heat indices through the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
overachieved yesterday in some spots depending on cloud cover
during the mid afternoon and any proximity to the thunderstorm
activity. That could occur again today with some locations that
don`t see showers/thunderstorms early enough could see high
temperatures reach slightly above the forecast.

Overall, high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the west with upper 80s to low 90s across the eastern
portions of Central AL.

25/Owen

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

As Hurricane Erin continues to pull away from the East Coast towards
the end of the week, we`ll see some weak troughing across the area,
leading to slightly higher than typical rain/thunderstorm chances
across Central AL, especially across the southeastern half of the
area. Overall, this should lead to a break from the heat impacts
we`ve seen the past several days. As we look into the first of next
week, guidance continues to show a frontal boundary pushing
southward into Central AL on Monday and to the coast by Monday
evening. Right now, this appears to be largely a dry cold front with
guidance showing little rain along the boundary aside from the
typical diurnal activity.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected from generally through 4z
for ASN and AUO, perhaps MGM. Added in VCTS and tempo wording for
the first few hours. Additional showers and storms on Wednesday,
with the best chances in the north and west, but can not be ruled
out in the southeast as well.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due
to comms issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally light easterly to northeasterly winds are expected,
becoming more northerly as we go into the second half of the week.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight
with better chances Wednesday and Thursday. Min RHs should remain
in the 40-60% range through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  93  71  90 /  20  40  10  30
Anniston    72  91  71  90 /  20  30  10  40
Birmingham  74  94  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
Tuscaloosa  75  95  73  92 /  20  40  20  40
Calera      74  94  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
Auburn      73  91  73  91 /  20  30  10  40
Montgomery  74  94  73  93 /  20  30  10  40
Troy        72  92  73  92 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...16