457
FXUS64 KBMX 282301
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 601 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026

- Heat: A major heat risk is expected today across Central
  Alabama, with maximum heat indices from 105 to 109 degrees.

- Severe Weather: There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe
  thunderstorms across the far northeastern portions of Central
  Alabama this Tuesday evening and again on Wednesday afternoon
  and evening across the southeast counties. The main threat will
  be damaging straight-line winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026

Our area will remain in a northwest flow upper level pattern, on
the eastern periphery of the big heat dome, through most of the
rest of the work week. Weak disturbances in this flow regime could
help kick off isolated/scattered showers and storms during this
time. With the center of the upper high moving back to the west,
afternoon temperatures the next few days should moderate some back
down to more "typical" summertime levels. While the southern
counties in our CWA may be close to Heat Advisory criteria, I
don`t think the confidence criteria exceedance is high enough to
warrant an extension of the Advisory at this time.

As we transition to the weekend, the computer models are
advertising a much more substantial shortwave trough digging into
the southeast states from the north. This trough will further
"cool" temperatures, and bring an enhanced chance of showers and
storms to our area Saturday and Sunday. Beyond the weekend, it
looks like that upper low just hangs around into at least early
next week, keeping temperatures manageable and keeping rain
chances a bit elevated.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light westerly
winds tonight will become more northerly through the day
Wednesday, generally from 8-10 knots. With that said, winds at
AUO will be a bit stronger with gusts up to 20 knots at times
during the afternoon hours. There is a low (20-30%) chance of
showers and storms towards the end of this TAF window. As a
result, a PROB30 group was introduced to account for this
activity.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in
check for the week.  MinRH values are expected to remain above
50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in
from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around
40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  92  68  90 /  10  10   0   0
Anniston    76  91  69  88 /  10  20   0   0
Birmingham  78  93  72  91 /  10  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  78  94  73  93 /   0  30  30  10
Calera      78  96  72  94 /   0  30  20   0
Auburn      78  93  73  91 /   0  30  10   0
Montgomery  78  97  74  93 /   0  40  40  10
Troy        77  96  73  93 /   0  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...95/Castillo