Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
926 FXUS64 KBMX 300050 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 750 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 739 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025 - Dangerous heat conditions will continue through Wednesday evening with little relief tonight, affecting people and pets without adequate cooling and hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 131 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025 Dangerously hot conditions have developed across the area this early afternoon with temperatures currently in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s combining to produce heat indices ranging from 102 to 110 degrees. Some areas had already hit our Heat Advisory criteria before 11 AM this morning. Needless to say, continue to exercise extra precautions outdoors this afternoon as there will be little in the way of relief from the heat. There is a breeze which may help it feel more bearable at times, but we`re really banking on rain to cool things down. There are a few isolated showers and storms out there currently, and coverage may expand a bit further as we go through the afternoon, but broad ridging continues to dominate the pattern, so a lot of areas will miss out on the rain today. Some CAMs do resolve enhanced seabreeze activity or outflow from coastal convection late this afternoon into the evening hours, so if that materializes, then areas across the southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area could see a passing storm after dark. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 70s, so that will continue to compound on the heat stress as we head into tomorrow. Hot and humid conditions continue tomorrow, but there will be a subtle weakness in the ridge as a surface trough moves westward across the area. This should foster increased coverage of thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon. Before thunderstorms and their associated rain-cooled outflow become more prevalent later in the day, expect temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s for much of the area. So while rain will eventually help to cool things down, many areas may still reach heat indices of 105 to 107 degrees in the late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, the Heat Advisory was extended for the entire area through tomorrow. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 131 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025 The extended forecast continue to feature a gradual decrease in temperatures and heat indices owing to the breakdown of the ridge and increasing rain chances as mid-level longwave troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS by the end of the week. By early next week, we will have highs in the 80s instead of 90s. 86/Martin Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 A mid-level weakness will persist over much of the Deep South while compact ridging persists over much of Texas with another area over much of the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Expansive surface high pressure will build further as it moves southeast over Northern Minnesota and will support the cold front over the Midwest and Ohio Valley Regions to advance southeast, moving into the Mid-South and Northern Tennessee Valley Regions during the day on Thursday. Mid-level ridging will try to rebuild to our south over the Northern Gulf and Coastal portions of the state while the mid-level weakness persists over much of our forecast area northward to over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Regions on Friday. Strong surface high pressure will move southeast, becoming centered across Northern Wisconsin while the surface front approaches the Interstate 20 corridor during the day on Friday. Longwave troughing looks to develop from over Southeast Canada southwest to over the Mid-South Region Saturday and will advance southeast toward the area later in the day. The surface cold front will decelerate with time as it moves further southeast, clearing all but the far southeast counties by midday Saturday. The Sunday into Monday portion of the extended forecast is more speculative at this point as some disagreement emerges among the available global numerical guidance with mid-level troughing likely to persist or even become more pronounced over much of the Tennessee Valley Region, though one solution signals a less amplified solution. Strong surface high pressure will likely persist across the Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeastern portion of the Country while the surface front will stall along the Northern Gulf Coast during this time frame. Scattered (45-75%) chances for showers and storms are forecast Thursday with the better potential across the northeast counties followed by lingering activity into the evening hours. Scattered (60-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will again be forecast areawide Friday with best potential across the east and northeast counties with activity decreasing but lingering after sunset. Expect isolated (30-45%) chances for showers and storms northwest on Saturday with scattered (55-80%) east and southeast with lingering activity past sunset across the southeast portion of the area. As mentioned above, confidence is lower in the forecast for Sunday into Monday but generally isolated (30-45%) chances for showers and storms are forecast across the north and northwest counties and scattered (50-70%) chances across the south and southeast counties. High temperatures will range from around 90 in the higher terrain far east to readings in the mid 90s south and west on Thursday, followed by lows Thursday night from the lower 70s north to the mid 70s south and central. Highs Friday will range from around 90 far north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 90s far southeast. Lows Friday night will range from around 70 far north to the lower 70s south and central. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 80s in the higher terrain east to readings in the lower 90s across the southern third of the area. Lows Saturday night will range from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. Highs Sunday will range from around 80 in the higher terrain east due to wedging effects of strong high pressure to our northeast with readings in the upper 80s across the far west and southwest counties. Lows Sunday night will range from the upper 60s northeast to readings near 70 far south. Highs Monday will range from the lower 80s in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 80s elsewhere. 05 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025 SHRA/TSRA activity this evening is mostly staying away from terminal locations with VFR conditions being observed at all sites. Although an isolated storm can`t be ruled out through 02z, no mention of convective activity will be included in the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions will continue overnight with calm or variable surface winds before a possibility of at least MVFR ceilings developing across eastern and southeastern portions of Central Alabama. These clouds could impact ASN and MGM between 09 and 13z Wednesday morning, along with some patchy fog formation. Additional numerous SHRA/TSRA development is expected by Wednesday afternoon and have added PROB30 and TEMPO groups for TSRA after 18z Wednesday afternoon. Sites will likely need to be upgraded to TEMPO or prevailing TSRA over the next couple of TAF updates as confidence increases in the location of storm formation. Winds will remain light and variable during the day on Wednesday except for within thunderstorms, where downburst-type conditions will be possible. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Expect increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a wetter weather pattern persisting through late week. High low-level humidity values will keep RH values well above critical thresholds with no fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 95 73 93 / 40 70 30 70 Anniston 74 93 74 91 / 50 70 40 70 Birmingham 76 95 76 93 / 40 60 30 60 Tuscaloosa 77 96 76 94 / 30 50 20 50 Calera 76 95 76 93 / 50 70 30 60 Auburn 74 92 74 90 / 50 70 30 60 Montgomery 75 94 76 93 / 50 70 30 50 Troy 74 92 73 93 / 50 70 20 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay- Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Talladega-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...56/GDG