Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
229 FXUS64 KBMX 172329 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across the northwest portions of Central Alabama for Thursday. To avoid heat- related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 Invest 93L continues to move west, and we will continue to remain under its influence over the course of this short-term. Some showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger by this evening, before finally dissipating shortly after the sun goes down. However, thunderstorm chances will quickly return by tomorrow morning, influenced by both Invest 93L, and peak afternoon heating. Thankfully, this additional cloud cover should suppress afternoon highs by a few degrees, with highs "only" expected to reach the low- 90s. Overnight lows will also remain on the warm and muggy side, with lows only expected to drop into the low to mid-70s both tonight and tomorrow. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 The remnants of Invest 93L will linger to our west, before essentially getting caught up in the rebuilding ridge. Once this happens, the remnants will also get sandwiched between the zonal flow situated over the Midwest. Because of this, there is some argument to be had that it will prevent the ridge from becoming the dominant feature in the region. In turn, afternoon thunderstorm chances would linger through the long-term as well. The other side of that coin is the ridge is able to overcome the remnants, and actually become the dominant feature across the area. If that were to happen, then PoPs in the long-term are likely overdone, with mostly limited rain chances expected. Given the lack of confidence for neither scenario, I have opted to remain "status quo" with the forecast. Rain chances aside, confidence is still very high that the ridge will begin raising afternoon high temperatures once again. As such, heat index values will begin climbing as well, with heat headlines needed as early as Monday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 Lingering isolated showers will affect TCL and BHM through 02z followed by decreasing clouds overnight with VFR conditions prevailing. Expect scattered cumulus to develop towards late morning on Friday followed by scattered showers across much of the area with some thunderstorm potential but only mentioned showers for this issuance. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. Also, AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX has been added at ASN until further notice due to missing sky group in obs. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will remain above 50% through the weekend, before slowly dropping by the middle of next week. Rain chances will also linger through the weekend, with winds generally ranging from the SE to SW. Given the high MinRH values and rain chances, fire weather concerns will continue to remain limited. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 92 72 92 / 10 50 10 40 Anniston 73 91 73 91 / 20 40 10 40 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 10 50 10 50 Tuscaloosa 75 91 74 91 / 10 60 10 50 Calera 74 90 73 90 / 20 50 10 40 Auburn 73 91 73 92 / 10 40 10 30 Montgomery 74 93 73 93 / 20 60 10 50 Troy 72 92 72 93 / 10 60 0 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...05