275
FXUS64 KBMX 101754
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

- Strong Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening showers
  and thunderstorms will persist through the first half of the
  week, with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty
  winds.

- Heat: Heat indices will begin to climb by Wednesday. There is
  medium to high confidence in Heat Advisory criteria being met
  during the second half of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

The "copy/paste" forecast will continue through Wednesday, as an
upper-level ridge slowly slides west along the Gulf Coast.
However, it appears as if the pattern will begin to change for
the worse by Thursday, as this upper-level ridge will begin to
strengthen. Initially, the center of this ridge will be somewhere
in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta region, generally ebbing
and flowing east/west into the weekend. By the weekend proper
however, the center of the ridge will anchor itself somewhere
near Arkansas, strengthening into next week.

Locally, this will allow for afternoon high temperatures to
steadily climb into the weekend, with some locations reaching
Heat Advisory criteria by Wednesday. Ambient temperatures will
reach the mid to upper-90s by Friday, with mostly upper-90s
expected through the weekend. Given the high humidity, heat
indices of 105-110 should become more widespread resulting in
medium to high (50-80%) chances for extended heat headlines into
next week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

High instability and residual outflow boundaries will support
scattered TSRA through 11/02z, before coverage begins to
decrease. MVFR VIS is expected at EET and TCL between 11/10-14z,
with VFR conditions expected for most terminals over the next
24 hours.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally
above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected daily. Because of this, elevated fire weather
concerns will remain low over the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  92  74  92 /  10  50  10  40
Anniston    73  90  73  90 /  10  50  10  40
Birmingham  75  91  75  92 /  20  40  10  30
Tuscaloosa  75  93  75  94 /  20  40  10  30
Calera      74  91  74  92 /  20  40  10  30
Auburn      74  88  75  89 /  10  40  10  30
Montgomery  75  94  75  94 /  10  20  20  20
Troy        73  93  74  93 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/