008
FXUS64 KBMX 020157
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
857 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 848 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025

 - There is a very conditional risk of thunderstorms Wednesday and
   Thursday across the northwest portions of Central Alabama. If
   any storms can develop, they may become strong to severe.

 - Windy conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon through the
   evening hours. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
   expected.

 - Very warm conditions are expected Wednesday through Saturday.
   Record highs are likely each afternoon as highs reach the upper
   80s to lower 90s.

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across the
   northwest and west portions of Central Alabama during the pre-
   dawn and morning hours on Sunday. The threats include
   tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 848 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025

Guidance is coming in a touch more windy for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. We are now expecting 15 to 25 mph sustained with gust
to near 40 mph. A wind Advisory has been issued. Other changes
for tonight was to increase dewpoints as the southerly flow has
already increased the return flow. Low level clouds are beginning
to develop in the southwest as well and will move into the area
later tonight and into the overnight hours. Another reason for the
increase moisture. With the winds increasing tomorrow, we could
still mix out substantially and lowered RH values a touch as well
in the afternoon, especially in the central and eastern areas.
Updates are out.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025

Tonight.

The mid-level pattern will become more amplified overnight as a
strong shortwave drives southeast over Central California, carving
out a deeper portion of the broad western trough while the
longwave ridging amplifies further in response as it extends from
over South Carolina and extending northwest to over the Western
Great Lakes. Surface low pressure will develop further and
consolidate with time across the Central Plains overnight,
resulting in strengthening warm air advection across much of the
Lower Mississippi River Valley Region. This low-level advection
will cause the coastal front to our south to become stationary
this evening before slowly lifting northward across the southern
portion of the state overnight.

Look for continued high clouds to stream east over the area
tonight while some mid-level clouds will develop across portions
of the south and west due to weak isentropic lift to the north of
the coastal warm front. Additionally, some patchy fog will be
possible across portions of the southeast and south-central
counties before sunrise Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 50s northeast to the upper 60s southwest. Winds will
be from the southeast at 3-6 mph.

Wednesday.

Broad mid-level troughing will reside over much of the
Intermountain and Pacific Northwest Regions into Wednesday as a
strong southwest flow becomes established over much of the
Southern Plains and northeast into the Midwest and Western Ohio
River Valley. The surface warm front to our south will continue to
advance northward through the forecast area through the morning
on Wednesday while a broad warm sector develops from the Eastern
South-Central Great Plains extending southeast into Southern
Georgia. Strong surface low pressure will deepen across the
Central Plains through the day, resulting in a tightening surface
pressure gradient.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday with a low
(10-20%) chance for a few showers and storms across the northwest
portion of the forecast area due to strong mid-level ridging to
our southeast and lack of synoptic forcing in close proximity to
support convective development. While a dry forecast is likely, if
any thunderstorms do develop, some strong to severe storms will
likely result, but this very conditional risk appears to be quite
low and not mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook at this
time. Strong warm advection will result in high temperatures from
the mid 80s far north and far east to the upper 80s far south and
southwest. Winds will be gusty with speeds from 15-25 mph and
higher gusts possible.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025

For Wed night through Fri, the far NW counties could get clipped
by isolated to scattered showers/storms with disturbances
rotating around the base of the upper shortwave over the Rockies
with SW flow into AL. The majority of the activity should remain
NW of the CWA. Otherwise, SRLY low level flow will bring very warm
onshore flow into C AL with possible record breaking temperatures
becoming a greater probability.

By Saturday night convection chances will become more widespread
as a cold front gets closer to C AL with a ripe environment in
advance of the arrival of storms. An array of 60 plus dew points
will be awaiting the storms thanks to multiple days of onshore
flow ahead of its arrival. We have added a 2 out of 5 risk for
severe storms in the northwest and west portions of C AL for the
pre-dawn hours Sunday on into the daytime morning hours with all
modes of severe activity possible. Some timing and intensity
questions will need to be tweaked as we get closer in time to the
event.

For post front the weather roller coaster continues, from possible
record highs to maybe the need for a frost advisory for the NRN
counties of C AL with guidance hinting at mid 30s for Monday night.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025

The bulk of the long term portion of the forecast is dominated by
upper level ridging that is anchored in the Atlantic just north of
The Bahamas, and bulging into the southeast states. This upper ridge
will not only provide near record high temperatures through the
remainder of the week, but will also help to keep the primary storm
track to Alabama`s west and north. Several impulses rotating around
the base of the western U.S. trough will be shunted northeastward,
and keeping most of our area dry until at least Saturday. There`s a
chance some active thunderstorms could propagate far enough
southeastward to get into our far northwestern counties, but that
will be more of an exemption.

Global models do indicate the upper ridge finally breaks down by
Sunday, allowing a surface cold front to push in here. The front
will be accompanied by our next chance of widespread showers and
thunderstorms, and will be followed by an abrupt switch to much
cooler (some might call it colder) weather to start out next week.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 6 to 9 hours. As the flow
becomes more southerly overnight, we will likely see lower clouds
with some patchy fog may develop close to MGM after 06z and then
spread north through sunrise. Added in MVFR to all sites through
15z, with a tempo IFR at MGM right at sunrise. Low-level winds
will be increasing from the south and southeast at 12-24 kts with
some higher gusts at times after 12z, with the clouds slowly
eroding, but should be back to VFR by 16 to 18z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and quite warm conditions are expected across much of the
area through the remainder of the work week, except for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms in the far northwest counties each
day. Winds will be a bit gusty on Wednesday, but less so the
remainder of the week. Humidity levels are expected to remain
above critical thresholds through the week. The next chance for
widespread rain returns for Saturday night into Sunday, ahead of
a cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025

Forecast high temperatures are near record values from Wednesday,
April 2nd to Saturday, April 5th. The table below shows current
record high temperatures for each of those days.

                April 2     April 3     April 4     April 5

Anniston        87          89          86          88
Birmingham      86          87          88          88
Tuscaloosa      88          86          87          89
Montgomery      88          87          89          91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
Anniston    58  86  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
Birmingham  62  87  67  89 /  10  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  63  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
Calera      61  86  67  87 /  10  10   0  10
Auburn      62  84  66  86 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  63  87  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        63  87  65  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday for the
following counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Shelby-
St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...16