806
FXUS64 KBMX 252312
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025

This afternoon.

Longwave troughing extended from over the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley Region south along the Mississippi/Alabama State Line at
this hour. RAP 13 km analysis depict a defined shortwave over the
West and Northwest portions of the state that was continuing to
support showers with a few thunderstorms. This activity is
becoming more outflow-dominant as it continues to move further
east. A second shortwave was moving east over Southern Mississippi
and was supporting additional convective activity across South-
Central Mississippi that will also move eastward, affecting our
southwest and south-central counties later this afternoon and into
the evening.

High (65-85%) chances for showers with at least isolated (25-45%)
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon with greatest potential
across the western counties now through mid afternoon and chances
increasing across the central and eastern counties later this
afternoon through the evening hours. Winds will be from the south
to southwest at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the
mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

Tonight.

The longwave trough will extend from over the Eastern Ohio River
Valley Region south to over the Northwest Florida Panhandle
tonight while mid-level ridging builds over South Texas.
Convective activity this afternoon and evening is forecast to
continue moving east, creating and maintaining a convective
outflow boundary that will continue moving east into Georgia and
the Carolinas overnight while a surface cold front continues to
approach the area from the northwest and will extend from Western
New York State southwest to across the Mid-South Region after
midnight.

Look for decent coverage (55-75%) of showers and isolated to
scattered (20-40%) thunderstorm activity to continue this evening
before becoming mostly rain showers overnight as the activity
continues to move east with time. Winds will become west to
southwest at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from around 60
northeast to the mid 60s south and southwest.

Saturday.

Broad mid-level ridging will extend over South Texas eastward to
over portions of Louisiana and South Mississippi on Saturday while
strong surface high pressure moves southeast out of Central
Canada and becomes centered near Chicago, IL later in the day. The
surface cold front will slowly drift further south and will
become extended roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor toward
sunset.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday with isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity developing through the
day with best chances across the southern portion of the forecast
area. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the lower 80s north and in the higher
terrain east to readings in the mid 80s south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025

No big changes from the previous forecast as targets of
opportunity remaining on the minimal side.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025

The long-term forecast period will continue to feature very warm,
above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions. First
for Sunday, we`ll see a 500mb shortwave passing across the
Tennessee River Valley with a lingering stalled surface boundary.
At least scattered showers and storms can be expected during the
day through Sunday afternoon, but confidence in overall coverage
remains fairly low at this time. The timing of the shortwave would
lend more toward scattered activity due to less available overall
instability during the morning and first half of the day.
Forecast soundings are also indicating this morning a little less
dry air aloft for storms to work with. When we`re able to factor
in high- res guidance over the next day or so, we should be able
to better refine the PoP forecast. Highs on Sunday will range from
the upper 70s in Haleyville north of the stalled front to the
upper 80s in Troy and Eufaula. If we are able to see some strong
storms develop, the best chance would be across the southern third
of the CWA during the late afternoon and early evening hours. SB
CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg with DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
would certainly support summer convection-like pulse storms with
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

On Monday as the old surface boundary washes out, an easterly
surface fetch will move in across Georgia and eastern Alabama as
high pressure moves off the Carolina coastline. Easterly flow at
the surface with westerly flow aloft should produce isentropic
upglide for some clouds and possibly a few showers to develop
roughly along and east of I-65. Otherwise, very warm and dry
weather can be expected for much of the forecast area through
Thursday. Global guidance is giving a better indication that the
ridge will remain strong enough to keep a cold front well off to
north and west of the area, along with the most significant rain
chances. I went ahead and trimmed back on PoPs even further than
NBM guidance as a result Wednesday through Thursday. Those rain
chances may need to be reduced even further over the next couple
of days. A stronger ridge also would lead to hotter daytime
temperatures, and I`ve blended in the higher-end of NBM guidance
for highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper 80s to near 90 degrees are
expected areawide, with mid to upper 80s continuing through
Thursday. There are early indications that the ridge may finally
begin to break down by Friday and into next weekend, but it`s too
far out to speak of specifics on that just yet.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025

Showers and storms are currently making their way across Central
AL. Will continue with a mention of SHRA/VCTS for the next couple
of hours. Activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating. Low
level stratus and patchy fog are likely to develop late tonight,
closer to sunrise, across all terminals. Have introduced a mention
of MVFR conditions with TEMPOs for IFR from 10-14Z. VFR conditions
return by 18Z. Westerly winds tonight will become northerly
through the morning hours while remaining generally less than 10
knots.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The late spring/early summer-like pattern will continue through
Saturday with chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the afternoon each day. RH values drop into the 35 to 40 percent
range in the southeastern portions of Central Alabama at times,
but remain above 40 percent elsewhere. 20ft winds will generally
remain light in the 5-10 MPH range with occasional gusts to 15 MPH
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  85  59  82 /  30  10   0  20
Anniston    61  85  60  83 /  40  10   0  20
Birmingham  63  85  63  84 /  30  10   0  20
Tuscaloosa  64  86  64  86 /  20  10   0  30
Calera      62  85  64  84 /  30  10   0  20
Auburn      63  84  65  85 /  30  10   0  20
Montgomery  65  86  65  88 /  20  10   0  20
Troy        64  86  65  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo