739
FXUS64 KBMX 070532
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1232 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025

A shortwave will move across the lower MS River Valley today, and
into the state tonight. This feature will bring showers and
thunderstorms throughout tonight and Wednesday.

Today, low level flow will allow for moisture advection through
the afternoon and night tonight. PW values will start the
afternoon in 50th to 75th percentile, allowing for much of the
activity on radar to remain not reach the ground. Through the
afternoon and evening, as moisture increases, light showers can
start to reach the ground in any isolated/scattered activity.

CAMs are holding on to an area of storms developing over the
southwestern MS area, and moving east and northeast through the
early part of the night. These storms should weaken as they move
into the western counties with instabilities less than 800 J/kg
across the area. The only concerning factor that would keep these
storms from weakening more is the shear will be mildly strong
overnight. 0-1 values between 20-30 kts, and 0-6 km values will be
between 40-50 kts. A few storms could have gusting winds, but not
overall big severe threat is expected. PW values will increase to
max, with high rain rates expected. Will need to keep an eye on
any training areas of storms, especially over urban locations or
areas with poor drainage.

Wednesday, models are diverging on how much coverage of
convection is possible through the late morning and early
afternoon. Instabilities will be higher, between 1200-1500 J/kg,
though shear will be lower. Isolated to scattered diurnal activity
could continue through the afternoon across much of the area.

The temperature swing should be more mild between highs and lows
with low level moisture keeping a low cloud deck over the state.
Highs today will right around normal in the upper 70s and lower
80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with
highs on Wednesday in the low 70s to upper 70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025

A slow-moving area of low pressure, blocked by a ridge axis toward
its north, will result in days worth of gray skies and spells of
showers and non-severe storms (medium to high chances from day to
day). Ensembles suggest it won`t be until Wednesday of next week
that the low pressure system gets the boot and we have an
opportunity to transition toward less-active conditions.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected through this TAF cycle as
showers and thunderstorms spread across the region. Showers will
continue through around sunrise with periodic MVFR conditions
possible, especially with any heavier showers. There may be a
brief lull through the morning hours before activity redevelops
this afternoon. Have transitioned to TEMPO groups to capture the
timing for TSRA during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Reduced vis is likely with any passing storms. Convection begins
to wane shortly after 00Z. Outside of gusty winds associated with
a passing storm, winds will remain light through the period.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather elements will stay outside of critical thresholds
over the next several days. Several rounds of showers and storms
will affect Central Alabama from tonight into early next week.
Rain totals of 1-4 inches are currently forecast, with the higher
end of that range over the southern-half of the state. 20-foot
winds will be light from day to day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  59  79  57 /  70  40  60  50
Anniston    74  61  78  59 /  70  40  60  50
Birmingham  74  63  78  62 /  60  40  70  50
Tuscaloosa  77  63  80  62 /  60  30  70  60
Calera      76  64  78  62 /  60  30  70  60
Auburn      76  63  78  63 /  80  40  70  60
Montgomery  79  64  79  62 /  70  30  80  60
Troy        79  63  78  62 /  80  30  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...95/Castillo