183
FXUS64 KBMX 101705
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

Easterly flow continues across the area and will help increase the
moisture over the areathis afternoon and Monday. Once again the
stubborn low level clouds are hanging around, keeping temperatures
on the lower side of guidance. We are beginning to see some
isolated showers develop to our east and across portions of our
eastern counties. Echoes in the southeast have a better shot at
actually reaching the ground, so PoPs are higher here. If activity
becomes more widespread in Georgia, we may need to increase PoPs
to higher than scattered, howevere that is a good depiction of the
current status of the activity. Same story tonight and into
Monday, but with a more southeasterly flow after sunrise we may
see more in coverage as the afternoon progresses.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(Though Monday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

Moisture will continue to slowly increase from southeast to
northwest as an inverted surface trough approaches from Georgia.
Most of the forecast area will remain dry, and diurnal convection
should be isolated to scattered, with the highest rain chances in
our southeastern counties.

With the arrival of the inverted trough, a more significant surge
in moisture is expected on Monday as 925 to 700 mb flow shifts
from easterly to southeasterly. We can expect noticeably greater
coverage of afternoon and evening convection as 2+ inch PWAT
values advance northward.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

High moisture content will continue to overspread the region on
Tuesday, leading to numerous/widespread showers and storms. With a
moist airmass remaining in place, additional scattered diurnal
convection should continue through the end of the week. As we get
to the end of the week and into next weekend we will need to keep
an eye on the heat as it begins to creep toward a minor to
moderate heat risk. Right now guidance is trending that direction,
but with some uncertainites, we want to just mention the
possibility and certainly keep an eye on the trends. It is Summer
after all. If we do get as warm as the models are trying to show,
we will certainly need to keep an eye out for stronger afternoon
storms, as they typically concide with this upcoming pattern.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

Stubborn MVFR cloud across the east, with isolated rain showers
developing to our east. The low clouds will finally erode in the
east by 19z but remain low end VFR with the showers and isolated
storms possible through 3z. Main areas to watch for will be AUO
and MGM, The showers may sneak into ASN as well, but confidence is
too low here. With the easterly flow look for another round of low
clouds MVFR at all locations and perhaps some tempo IFR at MGM and
AUO.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will persist, and there are no fire
weather concerns. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be most
focused on the afternoon to evening time frame. Moisture and rain
chances will gradually trend upward each day through Tuesday.
20-foot winds should remain less than 10 mph from the east through
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  87  71  88 /  10  40  20  70
Anniston    72  86  72  86 /  10  50  30  70
Birmingham  72  88  73  86 /  10  40  20  70
Tuscaloosa  73  89  74  87 /  10  30  20  70
Calera      72  87  73  86 /  10  50  20  70
Auburn      72  83  72  85 /  20  70  40  80
Montgomery  74  88  73  88 /  20  60  30  80
Troy        72  85  72  86 /  20  70  40  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16