026
FXUS64 KBMX 150547
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1247 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

Clear skies across the area right now. Some patchy low clouds/fog
will slide in from the south by daybreak, much like this past
morning. That mixes out by late morning and southerly flow will
bring in some warmer conditions with mostly sunny skies. Some
locations in the south will warm into the lower 90s as low-level
ridging centers over the northern Gulf. We will continue to see
warm temperatures on Friday as well ahead of a frontal boundary to
our north. Right now it looks like like most of the rain will
remain to our north through Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will
be a degree or two warmer than today with readings in the upper
80s north to low 90s south.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

A low pressure will deepen and move over the Ohio Valley, with a
frontal boundary moving into the area Friday night through
Saturday evening. Rain and thunderstorms could move into the
northwestern counties after midnight, with activity increasing in
coverage by mid morning. As the front sags south, most of the area
should see showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon,
continuing through the evening. Instabilities are high, with 3000
J/kg plus forecasted right now, and plenty of shear. Will have to
analyze the severe potential as the front gets closer.
Uncertainties include how quickly the front makes it into the area
and how much convection will occur through the morning ahead of
the stronger afternoon storms.

Sunday, high pressure develops over the Gulf with flow turning to
the west and southwest around this high. A shortwave is expected
to move across the southeast states with showers and
thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon. Instabilities right now look
to be slightly lower than Saturday, though still high, with
several thousand J/kg. Any activity should weaken fairly quickly
with sunset.

Monday and Tuesday, the high pressure should become the dominant
feature with most of the area remaining rain free each day. A
series of thunderstorms will move around the high, with most of
the coverage north of the area. The very far northern fringes of
central AL could see isolated to scattered convection each
afternoon.

By Wednesday, a low pressure will develop over the Plains and move
east. A frontal boundary with that low will move across the state.
The front should be stronger with the low pressure closer to the
state compared to the low moving through the Ohio Valley this
weekend. Though the wind field is expected to be widespread and
moderate.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025

VFR conditions through 10z, then some low clouds will begin to
stream in from the south once again. Look for the clouds to make
it to TCL, MGM and EET. There is a low probability that BHM and
ASN will see the clouds so left them out for now. Clouds mix out
by 15z then VFR conditions prevail, with southwestern winds
increasing to 8 to 10 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An overall dry trend will be in place through Friday. Minimum
RH values will remain in the 40s and 50s this afternoon, with
20ft winds around 6 to 9 mph. Slightly drier conditions on Friday
ahead of the next system. Minimum RH values will be the 40s north
to upper 30s in the south, with 20ft winds around 7 to 10 mph.
Rain enters the area Friday night across the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  67  89  67 /  10   0   0  40
Anniston    87  69  89  69 /   0   0   0  30
Birmingham  88  70  89  71 /  10   0   0  40
Tuscaloosa  88  69  90  71 /   0   0   0  30
Calera      87  69  90  71 /   0   0   0  20
Auburn      87  68  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  91  69  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        90  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...95