Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
982
FNUS73 KBIS 151019
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Lone Butte 3...BLM
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
519 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue to be found across
the fire area today. Steady west wind this morning will increase
late this morning into this afternoon. Winds will then peak at
around 30 mph gusting to around 40 mph today. Warm temperatures
will again provide for low relative humidity values in the mid 20s
this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop late this
afternoon through this evening. Chance of wetting rain is low,
with gusty and erratic winds possible. Areas of blowing dust may
also return today. Tonight, isolated thunderstorms will diminish
shortly after sunset. Humidity recoveries will be improved and
near 70 percent. Winds will diminish to a light west wind.
Saturday, warm and dry conditions will continue. Light west winds
will be found to start the day, switching to an easterly wind late
in the afternoon. Beyond Saturday, chances for wetting rains will
increase on Sunday. Expect cooler temperatures and improved
humidity values. A breezy northeast wind may also be found on
Sunday.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Areas of blowing dust late in the morning through the
afternoon. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to around 40 mph in the late morning and
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (94200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (321000
knot-ft).
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5 5 5 4 3 9 16 22 32 43 53 51
Weather cov..... ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type.... BDT BDT BDT BDT BDT BDT BDT
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 20
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20
Temp............50 49 52 57 60 63 65 66 67 67 68 68
RH..............48 52 48 40 37 32 30 29 28 27 26 25
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..13 13 17 23 23 28 29 28 30 30 29 29
20 FT wind gust.24 24 26 31 31 35 37 37 38 39 39 38
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.4 5.0 7.3 8.9 10 9.7 9.5 8.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.25 25 28 31 32 33 40 41 43 43 44 41
Dispr kt-ft/1K..17 18 30 64 94 144 254 320 369 358 361 321
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear. Areas of
blowing dust early in the evening. Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
around 37 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph by 2200.
West winds around 5 mph after 0000. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (198900 knot-ft) decreasing to good
(67700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the night early
in the evening.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50 48 44 40 35 27 19 11 14 13 12 14
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS SCH
Weather type....BDT BDT BDT RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).20 20 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............67 65 64 59 55 52 49 48 46 45 43 42
RH..............26 28 30 36 43 50 56 58 63 65 67 70
20 FT wind dir..W W W NW W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..27 25 23 17 13 10 8 6 5 4 4 4
20 FT wind gust.37 33 31 25 20 18 14 12 10 9 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...7.2 6.4 2.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W NW W W W W W W W NW
Transp wind spd.38 36 26 20 15 13 12 10 9 9 8 7
Dispr kt-ft/1K..237 199 68 17 7 8 6 4 3 4 4 3
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light west winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
east northeast late in the afternoon around 6
to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest to
southeast 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (96700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19 31 28 31 44 39 51 65 63 76 74 82
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............41 41 45 49 54 57 60 62 64 65 66 67
RH..............73 73 65 56 47 40 36 34 31 30 28 27
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW W W SW W W NE E E
20 FT wind spd..4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7
20 FT wind gust.8 8 9 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.8 5.6 7.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW W W W W W W SW S SE
Transp wind spd.7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 13 15
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3 4 4 7 8 16 26 33 34 46 61 97
$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Michelle
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613590.2/BIS
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.kannas@usda.gov,mtmcc@firenet.gov