Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
758 FNUS73 KBIS 221325 FWSBIS Spot Forecast for Bear Den...Three Affiliated Tribes National Weather Service Bismarck ND 825 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on October 22. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Forecast high temperatures around the burnsite today are forecast in the upper 40s, while the minimum relative humidities this afternoon are expected to be in the lower 60 percent range. A band of precipitation moving across western North Dakota will exit to the east later this morning. This afternoon, precipitation wrapping low a low center found over northern Minnesota will promote another round of low chances for rain through this afternoon and evening. Cloudy skies will begin to clear from west to east this evening and overnight. Light northwest winds this morning will strengthen through the afternoon, becoming breezed from 15 to 20 MPH and gusting up to 30 MPH. Winds will then diminish and become light through the evening and overnight, all the while turning to the southwest through Wednesday morning. High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be a little warmer, generally in the lower 60s around the burnsite. Minimum relative humidities Wednesday afternoon are thus a drier, forecast around the burnsite to be in the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range. Light southwest winds Wednesday morning will somewhat strengthen, becoming modest from 10 to 15 MPH and gusting up to 25 MPH Wednesday afternoon. Despite the lower relative humidities, these lighter winds are limiting fire weather concerns at this time. Generally clear skies Wednesday morning will become cloudy from west to east through the late afternoon and evening. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 48. Min humidity........60 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (28000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (83400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........83 91 87 89 88 90 86 84 83 80 Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 10 0 10 10 10 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............43 44 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 RH..............89 89 82 79 76 73 70 65 65 60 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT wind spd..14 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 16 20 FT wind gust.21 22 24 25 26 27 29 26 26 25 Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W Transp wind spd.21 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..28 42 50 58 64 67 72 73 81 83 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly clear. Slight chance of rain showers early in the evening. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 29. Max humidity........96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph, shifting to the west and then southwest while becoming light this evening and overnight. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 21 mph shifting to the west around 9 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (67800 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (3400 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........65 52 46 37 19 16 8 7 7 7 7 6 Weather cov.....SCH Weather type....RW Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............45 43 41 38 37 35 34 33 32 31 31 31 RH..............62 67 73 79 82 85 85 89 92 92 96 92 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW W W W SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..15 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 20 FT wind gust.24 20 17 14 12 10 8 6 6 7 8 9 Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W Transp wind spd.21 20 17 16 13 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Dispr kt-ft/1K..68 35 30 19 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 63. Min humidity........26 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 21 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (102500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........7 4 6 20 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............31 35 51 61 RH..............88 82 46 27 20 FT wind......SW 5G9 SW 7G12 SW 12G18 SW 14G21 Mix hgt (ft)....500 500 2400 4400 Transport wind..W 12 W 13 W 20 SW 25 Haines index....4 4 4 4 Dispr kt-ft/1K..5 5 41 96 $$ Forecaster...ADAM Requested by...Terrance.Hodgkiss Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2424531.1/BIS .DELDT 10/21/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL bronsonflynn@mhanation.com,thodgkiss@mhanation.com