Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
758
FNUS73 KBIS 221325
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Bear Den...Three Affiliated Tribes
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
825 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on October 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast high temperatures around the burnsite today are forecast
in the upper 40s, while the minimum relative humidities this
afternoon are expected to be in the lower 60 percent range. A band
of precipitation moving across western North Dakota will exit to
the east later this morning. This afternoon, precipitation
wrapping low a low center found over northern Minnesota will
promote another round of low chances for rain through this
afternoon and evening. Cloudy skies will begin to clear from west
to east this evening and overnight. Light northwest winds this
morning will strengthen through the afternoon, becoming breezed
from 15 to 20 MPH and gusting up to 30 MPH. Winds will then
diminish and become light through the evening and overnight, all
the while turning to the southwest through Wednesday morning.
High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be a little
warmer, generally in the lower 60s around the burnsite. Minimum
relative humidities Wednesday afternoon are thus a drier, forecast
around the burnsite to be in the upper 20 to lower 30 percent
range. Light southwest winds Wednesday morning will somewhat
strengthen, becoming modest from 10 to 15 MPH and gusting up to 25
MPH Wednesday afternoon. Despite the lower relative humidities,
these lighter winds are limiting fire weather concerns at this
time. Generally clear skies Wednesday morning will become cloudy
from west to east through the late afternoon and evening.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in
the morning, then slight chance of rain showers
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (28000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (83400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 91 87 89 88 90 86 84 83 80
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 10 0 10 10 10 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............43 44 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46
RH..............89 89 82 79 76 73 70 65 65 60
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..14 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 16
20 FT wind gust.21 22 24 25 26 27 29 26 26 25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
Transp wind spd.21 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..28 42 50 58 64 67 72 73 81 83
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly clear. Slight chance of rain
showers early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph, shifting to the west and then
southwest while becoming light this evening
and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 21 mph shifting to the west
around 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (67800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65 52 46 37 19 16 8 7 7 7 7 6
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............45 43 41 38 37 35 34 33 32 31 31 31
RH..............62 67 73 79 82 85 85 89 92 92 96 92
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW W W W SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..15 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 5
20 FT wind gust.24 20 17 14 12 10 8 6 6 7 8 9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.21 20 17 16 13 10 10 9 8 9 9 9
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..68 35 30 19 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 21
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (102500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........7 4 6 20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............31 35 51 61
RH..............88 82 46 27
20 FT wind......SW 5G9 SW 7G12 SW 12G18 SW 14G21
Mix hgt (ft)....500 500 2400 4400
Transport wind..W 12 W 13 W 20 SW 25
Haines index....4 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..5 5 41 96
$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Terrance.Hodgkiss
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424531.1/BIS
.DELDT 10/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bronsonflynn@mhanation.com,thodgkiss@mhanation.com