553
FNUS73 KBIS 021004
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Schnell RX...BLM
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
504 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon and Sunday Afternoon.

A cold front will move southeast across the burn site this morning.
Southwest winds around 15 mph early this morning will shift to the
west shortly after ignition time, then to the northwest 15 to 20 mph
by 11 AM CDT. At max heating today, look for a minimum humidity around
25 percent with a mixing height to 7000 feet. Smoke dispersal will be
excellent by late in the afternoon.

Tonight, look for humidity to recover to near 70 percent. Breezy north
winds early in the evening, diminishing and becoming northwest.

On Sunday west winds of 5 to 15 mph in the morning will increase to
15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with gusts to around 25 mph. At max heating
Sunday, look for a minimum humidity of around 20 percent with a mixing
height to 8000 feet. Smoke dispersal will be excellent by mid to late
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 15 to 20 mph late in the morning.
                    Northwest to north winds 15 to 20mph through
                    the afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 22 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 22 to 29 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (98800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon then increasing to excellent
                    (175900 knot-ft) in the late afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  43  47  64  67  70  70  61  51  63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............47  50  59  63  67  69  70  70  71  69
RH..............46  42  30  29  27  27  28  28  27  28
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..15  14  15  16  16  16  17  18  19  19
20 FT wind gust.18  20  20  21  21  21  22  26  28  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.5 5.6 6.4 7.0 6.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   NW  NW  NW  N   NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.18  18  22  22  22  25  26  29  29  28
Dispr kt-ft/1K..8   11  25  45  62  99  129 160 176 154

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy.
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph early this evening, diminishing and shifting
                    to the northwest 5 to 7 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 21 to 25 mph decreasing to 7 to 15 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (142200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (66600 knot-ft) late in the
                    evening then decreasing to poor (1400 knot-ft)
                    overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  36  47  54  44  43  43  50  47  30  33  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............68  66  62  58  53  50  48  45  43  41  38  38
RH..............29  32  35  39  45  48  49  53  55  57  64  64
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..18  17  15  13  11  9   9   7   6   6   5   6
20 FT wind gust.25  22  20  18  15  14  13  11  10  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...6.5 6.2 3.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.25  24  21  15  13  13  13  12  9   8   7   7
Dispr kt-ft/1K..142 131 67  12  6   6   5   3   3   2   2   1

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20
                    mph with gusts to around 25 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph increasing to 28 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (95100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon and excellent (195600 knot-ft) by
                    mid to late afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  20  35  18  8   4   8   12  17  23  28  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............37  36  40  46  55  59  63  66  68  70  71  72
RH..............67  69  62  49  37  32  28  26  25  23  23  22
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   8   10  11  12  14  15  16  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.9   10  12  14  15  18  20  20  21  22  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.9 4.2 5.4 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 7.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   9   12  17  20  21  21  23  25  28  29
Dispr kt-ft/1K..1   2   4   9   43  71  95  118 140 167 193 196

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Nate Wiedow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612119.2/BIS
.DELDT 05/02/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nwiedow@blm.gov