269
FNUS73 KBIS 141303
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Bail Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
803 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on August 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly cloudy skies are possible this morning as a low stratus
deck develops across western and central North Dakota, becoming
mostly clear by the late morning through the afternoon. High
temperatures around the burnsite are anticipated to be around 83
this afternoon, while minimum relative humidity drops to as low as
41 percent. Mainly calm weather is anticipated today, though low
chances (<10%) for thunderstorms are possible early this afternoon
as a cold front passes crosses from west to east this morning
through the evening. As behind this front, modest 10 to 12 MPH
winds out of the west are anticipated to to turn northwesterly by
the late morning. Gusty and erratic winds should be anticipated
where thunderstorms do develop.

Low temperatures tonight are forecast around 57, while relative
humidity is anticipated to recover to as high as 78 percent.
Northwest winds are anticipated to diminish through the evening
and overnight, veering to become northeasterly as another surface
boundary is lofted through the forecast area. More low chances for
precipitation (<20%) and a few thunderstorms develop after 3 AM CT
as this boundary passes through the forecast area. Where storms
do develop, gusty and erratic winds should be anticipated. Slight
chances for precipitation will then linger through the late
morning. Skies are then anticipated to clear through the early
afternoon over the burnsite. High temperatures on Friday are
forecast to be as high as 78, while minimum relative humidity
drops as low as 42 percent in the afternoon. Light winds are
anticipated to continue veering to the east through the afternoon
period.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny.
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  47  38  28  22  16  8   4   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  66  68  71  75  77  78  80  82  82
RH..............75  73  70  65  58  52  50  45  41  41
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  11  12  12  12  12  12  12  11
20 FT wind gust.13  15  18  19  19  19  19  19  18  17

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 mph early in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   4   9   14  16  17  16  15  29  43  43  44
Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20
Temp............81  80  78  74  71  68  66  64  63  61  60  59
RH..............42  44  47  51  57  61  63  67  67  72  75  78
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..11  10  9   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.18  17  14  12  11  10  9   9   9   9   9   9

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the morning.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  41  41  41  40  41  32  22  20  18  16  19
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  58  59  61  63  66  69  71  73  76  77  78
RH..............77  77  78  72  67  61  55  51  48  43  42  42
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   8   9   9   9   10  10  11  11
20 FT wind gust.9   9   10  11  13  14  14  15  17  18  18  18

$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Shane Tosse
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519894.0/BIS
.DELDT 08/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shane.tosse@usda.gov,shanetosse7@gmail.com