Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
321
FNUS73 KBIS 191226
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Bear Den...Three Affiliated Tribes
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
726 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 CDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected at the burn site
today. It will be warm with decreasing clouds, with a max temperature
in the upper 60s and a minimum relative humidity around 27 percent.
Winds will start out southerly this morning before quickly shifting
to southwesterly and increasing through the late morning and into
the afternoon. Expect sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph, with occasional gusts up to 35 mph.
Winds will decrease through the evening, but will stay southwesterly
around 10 mph through the night. Due to winds not dying off
completely, overnight lows will stay warmer than they have been
recently, with a low around 48 degrees and relative humidity recovering
to around 56 percent.
Temperatures will warm up further on Sunday, with a high around 72,
but with higher relative humidity and lighter winds. Winds will be
from the west around 10 mph, with a minimum relative humidity in the
lower 30 percent range.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph increasing to 16 to 20 mph with
gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 25 mph shifting to the west 26
to 28 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (91600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........58 60 57 53 44 35 26 18 11 7 8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............40 41 42 45 47 52 57 61 65 66 67
RH..............67 67 70 62 58 46 38 33 28 27 27
20 FT wind dir..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 8 9 11 13 16 17 18 19 18 16
20 FT wind gust.14 14 17 19 21 25 27 28 30 28 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.9
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
Transp wind spd.16 16 16 17 22 22 25 28 26 26 26
Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..7 7 8 11 26 33 58 78 86 92 90
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9 4 7 7 6 6 4 6 10 9 9 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............66 62 59 55 53 51 50 50 50 50 50 50
RH..............29 33 37 45 48 52 54 52 52 54 54 56
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..13 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.20 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W SW
Transp wind spd.18 15 15 15 16 17 18 17 17 18 20 20
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..21 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
the morning and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (44900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9 9 7 6 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............50 49 49 51 56 60 64 67 70 72 72 71
RH..............54 56 56 56 49 42 39 37 34 32 31 33
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 8
20 FT wind gust.20 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.3
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.20 20 18 18 17 20 21 20 18 17 15 12
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..9 9 8 9 10 20 32 41 44 45 43 23
$$
Forecaster...JONES
Requested by...T Hodgkiss
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424396.0/BIS
.DELDT 10/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thodgkiss@mhanation.com