820
FNUS73 KBIS 181200
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Audubon Islands...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
600 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet conditions are expected at the burn site today with a light southerly
wind shifting towards the east. Minimum afternoon humidity values are expected
to drop to around 49 percent. Winds start out light this evening, then shift
northwest and increase, with gusts to 30 mph after midnight. Chances for rain
will be on the increase tonight, with a switchover to snow on Tuesday. Strong
winds gusting to 45 mph expected Tuesday, leading to some blowing snow.

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South around 5 mph gradually shifting towards the
                    east through the day.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  83  74  62  56  58  62
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  43  45  47  48  46  44
RH..............64  57  58  53  49  58  62
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   4   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.9   9   10  10  9   9   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  9   7   7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Slight chance of rain late in
                    the evening, then chance of rain overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 15 mph early in the evening,
                    then increasing to 17 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
                    mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest 9 to
                    18 mph in the late evening, then increasing to
                    20 to 30 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy with rain switching to snow early. Patchy
                    blowing snow.
CWR.................50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 36.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. Northwest winds 21 to 28 mph with gusts to 40
                    mph in the morning, increasing to 25 to 35 mph with
                    gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 24 to 33 mph increasing to 38 to 48
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...D. Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426780.0/BIS
.DELDT 11/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dustin_mireles@fws.gov