Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
499
FNUS73 KBIS 141231
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Mt. Moriah...FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
731 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are forecast to move into the area this afternoon. Thunderstorms
could lead to gusty erratic winds. Minimum relative humidity will
remain elevated around 30 percent this afternoon before storms and showers.
Winds are forecast to switch from the southeast to the north around 15 mph.
Tonight showers and thunderstorms will continue with rain chances increasing
overnight. Gusty erratic winds are possible from thunderstorms.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers late in
the morning, then chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...19 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
northeast around 12 mph late in the morning,
then shifting to the east 13 to 15 mph early in
the afternoon shifting to the southeast 15 to
16 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
southeast 16 to 24 mph late in the morning,
then increasing to around 26 mph late in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (27500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (118600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (168200
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34 37 40 41 42 54 50 55
Weather cov.....ISO SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 0 10 10 10 20 30
Chc of thdr (%).0 10 0 10 10 10 20 20
Temp............70 74 76 79 82 82 82 83
RH..............53 46 45 41 34 32 33 32
20 FT wind dir..SE NE E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..10 12 13 15 15 16 16 15
20 FT wind gust.13 19 20 20 21 22 22 21
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.4 3.4 5.4 6.6 8.4 8.7 8.7
Transp wind dir.SW SE SE SE SE S SE SE
Transp wind spd.15 16 18 20 21 23 24 26
Dispr kt-ft/1K..28 34 54 92 119 168 183 201
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance
of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain
showers and scattered thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 85 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...53 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast 13 to 14 mph early in the evening,
then shifting to the north around 14 mph late
in the evening shifting to the northeast 14 to
15 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the evening, then gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 26 mph shifting to the southwest 15
to 16 mph early in the evening, then shifting
to the north 15 to 17 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (178300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to very good (135700 knot-ft) late
in the night decreasing to poor (6900 knot-ft)
early in the evening.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........61 69 83 83 81 85 82 91 93 88 88 88
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............0 30 30 30 70 70 70 90 90 90 80 80
Chc of pcpn (%).50 20 20 40 70 70 80 90 80 90 80 90
Chc of thdr (%).20 20 20 30 50 50 50 50 50 50 40 40
Temp............81 79 76 69 67 64 62 60 59 58 57 56
RH..............36 39 47 58 65 72 78 84 84 84 91 90
20 FT wind dir..E SE NE NE N N N NE NE N NE NE
20 FT wind spd..15 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15
20 FT wind gust.20 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...7.8 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW N NW N N NE NW NE
Transp wind spd.26 24 16 16 15 17 15 15 15 15 15 16
Dispr kt-ft/1K..178 136 15 7 13 13 9 12 12 12 11 11
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms.
CWR.................91 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...44 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 16 to 18 mph shifting to the
east around 19 mph late in the morning, then
shifting to the southwest early in the
afternoon shifting to the west 19 to 20 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 32 mph.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 17 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast
around 21 mph late in the morning, then
shifting to the north around 23 mph late in the
morning shifting to the northeast around 22 mph
late in the morning shifting to the northwest
22 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (50900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90 89 91 92 88 84 83 82 82 83 83 84
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Chc of pcpn (%).80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Chc of thdr (%).40 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40
Temp............55 55 54 55 58 59 60 60 60 59 58 58
RH..............94 100 100 100 87 83 83 84 84 84 83 82
20 FT wind dir..NE N N NE E E S SW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..16 16 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
20 FT wind gust.20 20 22 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.N N N NE N NE N NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.17 17 20 21 23 22 22 22 24 26 29 30
Dispr kt-ft/1K..11 13 16 22 29 28 34 42 45 48 51 51
$$
Forecaster...JOHNSON
Requested by...Terry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513967.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Terry_Gwilliams@fws.gov