549
FXUS63 KBIS 140851
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
351 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost in parts of southwest North Dakota early this
  morning.

- Seasonably pleasant and dry weather is expected today, with
  lighter winds, more plentiful sunshine, and highs in the 70s.

- Temperatures are favored to remain near to below normal
  through next weekend.

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday, then
  higher chances Tuesday night through Wednesday. Severe weather
  is not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

An upper level low continues to spin over northern Ontario
early this morning, while an upstream shortwave slides down the
Northern Rockies. These two features are loosely connected by a
trough that has sagged into South Dakota, leaving behind an
anticyclonic north- northwest flow aloft that will persist
through the day as a surface high pressure remains situated
just downslope of the mountains in Montana and Wyoming. This
sets the stage for a quiet weather day, with more sunshine,
warmer temperatures, and lighter winds than yesterday. Early
morning temperatures have cooled into the 40s, with a solid
corridor of upper and even mid 30s from around Hettinger to
Mott to Glen Ullin. Patchy frost is increasingly likely, if not
imminent, but it is too late to issue a Frost Advisory for the
purposes of plant, vegetation, and crop protection. Despite the
cold start to the morning, temperatures should rebound into the
lower to mid 70s this afternoon. The northwest flow will
transition back to cyclonic tonight, with increasing shortwave
energy lending to a gradual increase in precipitation chances
from north to south late tonight through Monday morning. Most
CAMs simulate at least isolated showers tied to a mid level
shortwave moving through northern North Dakota Monday morning,
but a lack of consistency of details limits PoPs in the 10 to
20 percent range for now. Diurnal heating combined with the
cyclonic flow is then expected to initiate more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central
North Dakota Monday afternoon. HREF mean MUCAPE tops out around
500 J/kg, but in the RAP it is closer to 1000-1500 J/kg. All
guidance shows effective bulk shear under 30 kts, so not
anticipating any severe weather on Monday, but a few stronger
storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Forecast highs
on Monday remain in the 70s, with northwest winds becoming
breezy once again.

Northwest flow aloft remains cyclonic Monday night through
Tuesday afternoon, but the lack of a well-defined shortwave
keeps shower and thunderstorm chances lower over this time
period. After a more pleasant Tuesday afternoon with lighter
winds and highs in the 70s, a potent shortwave over British
Columbia will enter the northwest flow Tuesday night and dig
into the Northern/Central Plains on Wednesday. Models are in
strong agreement that an associated left exit region of an upper
level jet will combine with strong DCVA to produce widespread
showers across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon. The probability of measurable rain at every location
is high, but there are medium to high chances for a northwest-
southeast corridor of rain amounts exceeding 0.25", with low to
medium chances for exceeding 0.5". Ensemble clusters show some
variance in the placement of the highest QPF axis. The two
clusters with highest membership are generally consolidated
from the northwest to southeast corners of the state, but one
lower-membership cluster (mostly GEFS) is shifted farther
southwest and another (mostly Canadian ensemble) is shifted
farther northeast. Convection may contribute to variable rain
amounts over small distances, but CAPE is forecast to remain
under 500 J/kg on Wednesday. The increased rain chances and
associated cloud cover bring the high temperature forecast down
into the mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday, but would not be
surprised to see cooler maximum daytime temperatures where more
persistent rain sets up. Finally, there continues to be mixed
signals on the magnitude and placement of strong northwest
surface winds with this system. The latest NBM shows advisory
to near warning criteria winds in southwest North Dakota on
Wednesday, but it is entering a forecast time range that has
subjectively exhibited a high bias for winds. Using 850 mb
winds at 18Z Wednesday as a proxy for surface gust potential,
global ensembles show mean wind speeds around 35 kts, with low
to medium chances for exceeding 40 kts and effectively zero
chance of exceeding 50 kts. The northeastward extent of the
strongest low level winds varies among clusters from the
Missouri River to just clipping the southwest corner of the
state.

In the wake of the mid week potent shortwave, ensembles
maintain cyclonic northwest flow through at least Thursday when
a couple of weaker embedded shortwaves could pass through. This
keeps rain chances around 20 to 40 percent through the day
Thursday, with forecast highs once again limited to the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Ensemble mean height fields now favor a
maintenance northwest flow over the Northern Plains through next
weekend, but do begin to show a rising height tendency as
ridging tries to build over the western CONUS. There are still
signals in longer range solutions though that the upstream
ridge might not fully ever reach the central CONUS as the
Hudson Bay/Ontario upper low refuses to go away, and it may not
be until the following week that we finally start to see a more
substantial pattern shift. This prolongs the expectation of
near to below normal temperatures through next weekend, with
highs generally projected in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
northwest winds early this morning will increase to around
10-15 kts this afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan