Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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418 FXUS63 KBIS 240750 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 150 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of freezing drizzle can be expected this morning south central, with patchy freezing drizzle possible elsewhere. - Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend and through next week. The coldest period is forecast over the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. - While no major storms are forecast for next week, weather disturbances moving through the region will bring chances for light snow at times. && .UPDATE... Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Earlier we added freezing drizzle to the forecast through early this morning, along with putting out a Special Weather Statement for slick road surfaces south central. Will continue to monitor and adjust as needed. Embedded impulse lifting east- northeast providing the lifting mechanism, with a low level stratus deck in place, coupled with an easterly upslope flow and a mid level dry layer. May need to further expand. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1006 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Snow has been reluctant to develop over much of the area, as a look at observations and webcams has been unimpressive. Therefore, have trimmed back some on precipitation chances. As for fog, models are quite hit and miss on some developing, so will continue with patchy fog across much of the area late tonight into Sunday morning. UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Snow has been slow to develop over the area, but expect development to commence over the next couple of hours, primarily over northern locations. Otherwise, besides increasing cloud cover, forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 An upper level ridge continues to move across the state this afternoon. Ahead of the ridge is an upper level short wave with some snow showers. The wave continues to weaken, therefore PoPs were reduced to match the current trends. Upper level troughing out over the Northern Rockies will push eastward today into the Northern Plains. The upper low will remain in Canada with majority of the lift staying north. Snow is only really forecast north of highway 200 with majority of the accumulations being along the International Border. The 25th to 75th total snow accumulations remain around 1 to 2 inches along the International Border while the remainder of the state could be trace to one inch. This system will exit the region by tomorrow. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the teens north to the lower 20s southeast. Tomorrow`s high temperatures are forecast to be a lot like today as low clouds linger across the region. Low stratus if forecast to move in from eastern Montana today. Low stratus tonight could lead to patchy fog and freezing drizzle in the James River Valley through tomorrow morning. This could lead to light rime ice accumulations on trees and walk ways. The upper low over Canada will move out of the region with a cold front following behind. This cold front will bring colder temperatures across the state. Monday high temperatures may only climb out into the lower teens north to 20s south. The upper level pattern will lock into northwesterly flow as high pressure builds out west and low pressure stalls in Great Lakes region. This will keep our pattern relatively dry through the week with cold air remaining lock in place. There could be a few weak waves that come through the region resulting in light snow throughout the week. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the teens up north and the 20s down south. These below normal temperatures will linger through weekend as another burst of cold air move trough the region. This will lead to cold temperatures persisting through Thanksgiving. Low temperatures are forecast to drop down to 15 below north to 0 south by Friday morning with possible wind chills down to 30 below. The pattern begins to become more uncertain through next weekend. If the upper level ridge shifts further east that would result in "warmer" temperatures or if the ridge remains locked in colder temperatures will persist. The warmer solution has about 60 percent chance while the colder solution is around 40 percent chance. This is reflected in the NBM 25th-75th which has over a 30 degree spreed for high temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings remain over most locations, along with pockets of LIFR. This will continue into Sunday morning, with some improvement through the morning and into the afternoon west to east. Areas of freezing drizzle south central this morning, with patchy freezing drizzle possible elsewhere. Patchy to areas of fog as well through Sunday morning. The FZDZ and fog will lead to periods of reduced visibility. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...NH