461
FXUS63 KBIS 111454
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will move along the international border south to
  US HWY 2 today. There will be slightly cooler temperatures
  across the region this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and Thursday as
  temperatures could be touching the mid 60s south.

- An upper level low will bring snow and windy conditions across
  central and eastern North Dakota this Friday into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

For late morning update main change was to advance the timing of
the start of some light snow a little bit over the west this
morning as some more organized radar returns are approaching
the border. With that said, as it progresses through really do
not expect much to come of it, maybe a dusting to a half inch
primarily along and north of Highway 2. Otherwise, only other
change was to increase cloud cover for today over much of the
area.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Light snow and flurries continue across the northwest and south
central under the areas with low stratus. Low stratus continues
to expand eastward across western and central North Dakota this
morning. No updates are need at this time as the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 504 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Low clouds continue to linger across portions of western and
central North Dakota this morning. Surface observations are
reporting light snow across portions of the northwest and south
central this morning. Satellite imagery shows an upper level
wave moving across northern Montana. This wave will bring light
snow to the northern half of the state today. Accumulations
remain low around half an inch north of US HWY 2. Surface high
pressure to the north will move off east as the aforementioned
system rolls through the region. Thus, allowing temperatures to
rebound a bit after yesterday`s the frontal passage. High
temperatures today are forecast warm into the lower 30s
northeast to the mid 50s in the southwest. Overnight low
temperatures will also increase around 10 degrees ranging from
the lower 20s to lower 30s down south.

Temperatures will quickly warm up across the state as an upper
level ridge begins to build across the Northern Rockies. High
temperatures Wednesday are forecast to warm into the lower 40s
in the northeast to lower 60s in the southwest. Thursday is
forecast to be the warmest day this week as the upper level
ridge passes overhead. High temperatures are forecast to climb
into the mid 40s north to the mid 60s south. An upper level wave
will traverse the upper level ridge Thursday morning leading to
light snow along the International Border.

An upper level low is forecast to move across the Central Plains
pivoting through the Northern Plains this weekend. This upper
level system continues to trend further southeast. As a result
the NBM and the latest ensembles continue to shift precipitation
accumulations further east into the Red River Valley. The NBM
now has a 37 percent chance of 2 inches or a greater amount of
snow for Jamestown. Both GEFS and ENS have backed down on the
amount of precipitation for the James River Valley as they have
a more progressive upper level low pivoting up into Canada by
late Saturday. It is hard to give probabilistic scenarios like
the previous shift due to the similarities of each solution.
Scenario 1 which is around 40% has around 3 inches of snow
stretching from Highway 83 into the James River Valley. While
Scenario 2 has around 60% chance of 2 inches or less amounts of
snow from Highway 83 into the James River Valley. This is due to
ensembles shifting qpf further east into Minnesota. As this
system moves through the region precipitation will start as rain
transitioning to mixed frozen precipitation before finally
transition to snow. Precipitation will start around Friday
afternoon into Saturday afternoon. The ECMWF EFI has central
North Dakota high lighted for high winds Saturday. There is one
thing for certain with this system is that there will be strong
winds and whatever snow falls will be blown around. However,
blowing snow has trended down due to a decrease in potential
snowfall. Now this system could continue to shift and any shift
westward could bring increased precipitation probabilities back
into the James River Valley. We will continue to monitor this
system as it develops, check back for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions continue at most sites excluding KXWA and
KJMS. Low stratus continues to expand eastward and has moved
out of the Williston area. Low stratus is forecast to clear
later this morning however the north will see the return of low
stratus and light snow later this afternoon. Light snow is
forecast across the northern half of the state today. Winds will
begin to shift out of the south this afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson