178
FXUS63 KBIS 111133
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooling trend today into the weekend.

- Low rain chances (~20 percent) today.

- High rain chances (~70 to 100 percent) Sunday night into
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Cold front continues to settle through the area, and has now
passed just to the south of Bismarck. This will continue through
the morning, with northerly winds continuing to increase in its
wake. Going forecast continues to be in good shape.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Current surface analysis places low over northern Manitoba and
Saskatchewan with secondary low over western South Dakota. Cold
front continues to drop through northwest into north central
North Dakota. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the
Midwest, with trough over the northwestern CONUS resulting in
west/southwest flow over our area, though a few short waves
swinging around low along the northern Manitoba/Saskatchewan
border continue to be noted in the flow.

For today, cold front will continue to drop through the area
with winds becoming northerly and breezy in its wake. In
addition, notably cooler air will move in behind the front.
High temperatures over our area will range from the mid 60s
over northwestern North Dakota to the 80s over the southern
James River Valley. A broad short wave swinging around the upper
low to the north pushes into our area, which may result in some
modest afternoon showers. Chances settle towards the south
towards evening.

On Saturday, surface high pushes towards the area, with notably
cooler temperatures (highs about 10-15 degrees below average). A
short wave moving through overnight may result in some rain
showers over southern parts of the area. In the meantime, a
compact surface low pushes onshore over the Pacific Northwest.

On Sunday, modest ridging develops to the west ahead of the
aforementioned low, quickly passing over the area as the upper low
slides over the Rockies and a lee slide surface low develops.
System then pushes east-northeast over the Northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies, bringing widespread high rain chances
(~70-100 percent) to our area Sunday night into Monday. Latest
NBM guidance shows a 50 percent or great chance of seeing a half
inch of precipitation along and north/east of the Missouri
River, with a 70 percent or greater over north central North
Dakota.

System then exits the area late Monday with drier westerly flow
for Tuesday. Thereafter, guidance is having trouble with some
key features, but overall the pattern suggest occasional modest
precipitation chances. As for temperatures, NBM continues to
express low confidence given the notable spread in possible
highs/lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A cold
front will continue to settle through the area from northwest
to southeast, with winds becoming northerly in its wake. Gusts
to 30 kts possible during the day.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS