321
FXUS63 KBIS 132057
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible through this
  evening. The chance of severe weather is low.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Thursday
  afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be hail to the size
  of a golf ball and wind gusts to 70 mph.

- High temperatures in the 90s combined with increasing
  dewpoints could bring some moderate Heat Risk to central
  portions on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Elevated warm front will bring increased instability through
this evening, although capping may also be found through the
evening. Although a thunderstorm may form anywhere along this
front through this evening, the better chances may initially be
in the southwest when a weak dry line in Montana moves through.
If this dry line can continue to push eastward, it will find
more increased dewpoints in the southcentral, possibly
continuing the chances for stronger thunderstorms. With adequate
cape and shear, hail to the size of a quarter and wind gusts to
60 mph. This again is all dependent on the cap breaking, which
is quite stout. SPC has maintained a general risk for
thunderstorms in the area, with the better chance for severe
weather still in South Dakota. Otherwise look for some breezy
southerly winds becoming lighter tonight. Any areas of smoke in
the north central should also diminish tonight. With increased
dewpoint, RH values will be high tonight. Winds should stay
elevated, thus the threat for fog is low. A cold front is still
expected to push across the state on Thursday from west to east.
Ahead of this front will be highs in the 90s and increasing
dewpoints perhaps into the upper 60s to lower 70s. As a result
the Heat Risk is now moderate, although high temperatures may
not quite be warm enough to reach heat advisory criteria.
Chances for severe weather remain across the eastern half of the
state for Thursday. Large amounts of cape and adequate shear
will remain. There still remains capping concerns and
uncertainty of the fronts timing. If storms can develop, main
threat looks to be large hail initially with any isolated
supercells, transition to a wind threat along the cold front.
Maintained hail to the size of a golf ball, although the
ingredients are there for hail to 2 inches or greater. Winds to
70 mph are also the main hazard, although there could be some
stronger gusts. Hodographs still show a low tornado threat,
although perhaps an isolated tornado is possible in eastern ND.
SPC has maintained a Marginal to Slight Risk in eastern areas.
Isolated thunderstorms could linger across the south Thursday
night, although the severe weather threat should diminish after
frontal passage. Lows will be cooler in the north in the 50s, to
the 60s south.

Front stalls out on Friday with a surface high across the north.
Cooler temperatures and northeasterly winds are expected as a
result. There could be some thunderstorm activity along the
stalled front in the south, although the threat for severe
weather is low. The northeasterly flow could also return some
wildfire smoke on Friday. High pressure aloft to our south
could bring southwesterly flow on Saturday providing for
slightly warmer temperatures. A ridge rider wave could also
return the chances for showers and thunderstorms, and perhaps
localized heavy rain given increased pwats. An isolated strong
to severe thunderstorm is also possible. This pattern of weak
disturbances moving over the high pressure could then linger
through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures remain in
the 80s for highs and 60s for lows. Near daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms could also be found. CSU-MLP currently has
low chances for severe weather during this time period.
Lingering high pwats could also promote localized heavy rain
with any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this
evening, although confidence was only high enough to include
PROB30 this evening in the KJMS TAF. Otherwise expected mainly
FEW to SCT cloud cover with VFR heights. This morning`s smoke
should diminish through the day today. Look for a breezy
southerly wind as well today. Any shower or thunderstorm
activity will diminish tonight giving way to more VFR
conditions. Winds will remain southerly tonight. Thursday sees a
cold front move through the area from west to east. This will
shift the winds from the south to the west. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms may also return to central and eastern
portions, although may delay until Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin