537
FXUS63 KBIS 021858
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
158 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of smoke will continue to linger over the next few
  days.

- Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
  early next week with highs mostly in the mid 70s to low 80s,
  though near average highs in the mid 80s are expected in the
  southwest on Monday.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms (20 to 60
  percent) remain in the forecast through the rest of the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Based on the latest satellite imagery and observations, smoke
persists across much of the area, though concentrations have
decreased with visibility 5 miles or greater at most locations.
Overall, the RAPSmoke and HRRRSmoke models both maintain some
near-surface smoke through at least Sunday. As a result,
extended patchy to areas of smoke in the forecast for much of
the area through the day Sunday. Since the overall pattern
doesn`t look to change a whole lot, wouldn`t be surprised if
smoke remains an issue at times through the next week. In regard
to visibility, patchy fog may also develop tonight through early
Sunday morning.

An MCV continues churning over north central SD near the ND/SD
border. With plenty of moisture available, this will likely lead
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the south central,
including the James River Valley, this afternoon and evening,
and potentially into the overnight hours. While a few
thunderstorms are possible, instability is progged to be fairly
low while shear is limited, therefore strong to severe storms
are unlikely. Weak shortwave energy also approaches the forecast
area from the west this evening through tonight. This may
produce a few showers and thunderstorms in far western ND. With
limited instability and around 25 kts of 0 to 6 km bulk shear,
a strong storm or two is possible, though severe storms seem
unlikely. With high PWATs for this time of year and storm
motions expected to be slow, locally heavy rainfall is possible,
especially in the James River Valley.

For Sunday, aforementioned shortwave continues tracking through the
state. This will create the potential for another round of showers
and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Instability looks a
little better for Sunday with the RAP projecting up to 2500
J/kg of MUCAPE. However, shear looks very limited, and perhaps
even a bit less than today. Therefore, unless shear winds up higher
than currently forecast; strong to severe thunderstorms seem
unlikely Sunday afternoon and evening.

Beyond Sunday, southwesterly to westerly flow aloft looks to
prevail. This will help generate periodic showers and thunderstorms
across the state. In addition, shear profiles are favored to
increase. As a result, more widespread severe thunderstorm
chances may return by Tuesday.

High temperatures will generally remain below average to start
the week, though may approach average on Monday in the southwest.
Models are then in good agreement that a lowly amplified
thermal ridge will pass through the Northern Plains during the
middle of the week, which will result in temperatures gradually
trending warmer. Current NBM forecasts suggest these warmer
temperatures near the middle of the week will be around average
for this time of year. After which, NBM probabilities favor
another cooling trend towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Periods of smoke will continue through the period resulting in
reduced visibility at times. In addition, patchy fog may develop
late tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible tonight mainly in western North Dakota, as well as
southeastern ND, including the James River Valley. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time, although reduced
ceilings, visibility, and erratic winds are possible with any
showers or thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken