187
FXUS63 KBIS 080347
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate snow to linger across the central and east
  into this evening. Patchy freezing drizzle possible as snow
  ends. Breezy winds with scattered freezing rain and snow
  showers possible on Monday.

- An impactful system is forecast Monday night through Tuesday
  night, which may bring a period of rain, freezing rain,
  accumulating snow (highest chances north and east), and very
  strong winds to parts of western and central North Dakota.

- The active pattern continues through the middle of the week,
  with medium chances for another round of accumulating snow
  late Wednesday through Thursday.

- Cold today, followed by above average temperatures Monday and
  Tuesday, then back below average for the second half of the
  week. Friday could be very cold with dangerous wind chills.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A mix of low level and upper level clouds across western and
central North Dakota this evening. Extensive area of lower
clouds across central ND and the James River Valley, with
increasing upper level clouds west. Satellite imagery and sfc
obs also showing indications of fog developing on the western
edge of the stratus. Opted to add fog to the forecast for
tonight there, with fog potential expected to gradually shift
east as the low level stratus deck retreats to the east. All
other forecast elements remain on track for tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Strong embedded wave continues east across the Northern Plains,
with a north to south orientated swath of light to moderate snow
over the eastern Dakotas. The snow will exit my far eastern
counties over the next hour or so, though some patchy freezing
drizzle may persist behind this area of snow as we lose ice
aloft and some forcing for ascent remains. Opted not to reissue
a Special Weather Statement as the snow is ending/moving east,
and right now any -FZDZ looks limited in coverage (patchy).

Partial clearing expected this evening, before clouds re-
increase west to east later tonight ahead of the next weather
disturbance set to move across the region tomorrow.

Models are hinting at fog and low stratus developing over parts
of the southwest and south central late tonight/Monday morning,
so will monitor to see if this actually happens and update the
forecast accordingly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Upper level wave and the associated front with it will continue
to push eastward through this evening. Light to moderate snow
will continue as a result, with 1 to 2 inches of total snowfall
still expected. As snow diminishes, patchy freezing drizzle is
possible through at least this evening. Some increased southerly
winds could also bring patchy blowing snow through this evening.
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies will persist bringing slightly
warmer lows in the single digits to teens. Perhaps some pockets
of freezing drizzle or even patchy fog are possible, although
confidence was not high enough to include at this time. Another
clipper system then looks to push through Monday. Limited
moisture looks to accompany this clipper, although isolated to
scattered snow and perhaps freezing rain showers are possible.
Breezy westerly winds are also possible, perhaps bringing some
blowing snow to the area. This dryer westerly wind will warm
temperatures into the mid 20s to mid 30s on Monday. Mild
temperatures will continue through Monday night with lows in the
mid teens to mid 20s. Southwesterly winds will also increase
Monday night ahead of another system. Warming aloft ahead of
this system may also bring more rain and freezing rain showers,
with isolated snow showers. Light ice accumulations are
possible.

A strong clipper system is still forecast to move through
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Abundant warm air with this
system still looks to bring a wide mix of precipitation types
currently forecast to bring rain in the southwest snow in the
northeast, and a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow
along the transition zone in the middle. There are some low to
medium chances (20 to 50%) for over 4 inches of snow in the
northeast with this system. This combined with the strong winds
forecast could bring winter storm impacts, although confidence
was not high enough for a watch. Elsewhere sees low chances
(less than 20%) for impactful snow, although does have low
chances (10 to 20%) for accumulation ice. Overall the
uncertainty of where this transition zone sets up cause for
holding off on any winter products today. There was increased
confidence in very strong winds for Tuesday on this shift. ECMWF
EFI values are approaching 0.9, while much of western ND is in a
shift of tails of 1. Models showing very strong winds available
to mix down from the 850 mb layer, and very strong pressure
rises. Given this decided to put all of the CWA in a High Wind
Watch Tuesday through much of Tuesday night. Gusts in excess of
60 mph will be possible, with the potential for much higher
winds. Highs Tuesday will also continue to warm with highs in
the 20s northeast to 40s southwest. Colder air returns Tuesday
night with lows below zero north to the teens south.

An active northwest flow pattern is favored to continue through
the rest of the week. The highest chances for accumulating snow
beyond Tuesday are with an upper level jet streak ejecting off
the Northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday. NBM PoPS for
snow increase today with this wave, and the NBM chances for at
least 2 inches are increased to 10 to 50% for most areas. Breezy
northwest winds may accompany this wave, perhaps leading to
blowing snow concerns. There remains increasing confidence in
temperatures becoming much colder for the second half of the
week, especially from Thursday night through Friday night when
ensembles favor a strong Arctic intrusion. The NBM shows medium
to high probabilities for highs below zero on Friday, along with
medium probabilities for lows around 15 to 25 below both
Thursday and Friday nights. This bitterly cold air mass could be
accompanied by enough of a northwest breeze to cause wind
chills to fall to dangerous levels. Deterministic-based NBM wind
chill projections are currently as cold as 35 to 45 below zero
Thursday night into Friday morning. Although temperature spreads
remain large, NBM showing warming temperatures for next weekend.
Northwest flow will bring the potential for more clipper systems
next weekend, returning chances for snow across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Band of snow will bring MVFR to IFR conditions early this
evening for KJMS, through about 01Z. As snow diminishes, patchy
freezing drizzle will be possible this evening. Lingering low
clouds could bring some MVFR ceilings through the night. Some
sites could see these ceilings lower to IFR heights tonight,
although confidence in where this occurs is low to moderate at
this time. A mix of MVFR to VFR clouds are forecast on Monday,
with a slight chance for light freezing rain and/or snow. Westerly
winds will increase Monday, and could result in low level wind
shear during the day Monday. Included at KMOT and KDIK for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night for NDZ001-002-009>011-017>022-031>036-040>048-050-051.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for NDZ003>005-012-013-023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...NH