042
FXUS63 KBIS 051730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of rain or snow showers in the north central and
  northern James River Valley this afternoon.

- Breezy through Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures through Wednesday followed by a
  warming trend to finish out the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Weak radar returns persists across portions of western and
central North Dakota at the time of this mid day update. Looking
through the NDDOT cameras, an isolated shower or two can be
found in the north central, while some flurries have been
observed elsewhere. Have opted to add mentioned of flurries
across central North Dakota where no PoPs were previously found.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Weak radar returns are moving across the International Border
into north central North Dakota at the time of this mid morning
update. With high cloud bases and dry near surface conditions,
little precpitation is expected to reach the ground. Virga is
evident on NDDOT cameras. Have made some slight adjustments to
the sky cover with this update to account for the latest
satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at
this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The possibility of afternoon isolated showers in the north and
east look to be less now based on the latest CAM guidance.
Although there are still some CAMs that have these showers in
the far northeast, confidence has lowered. As of now, did not
adjust the going PoP forecast, and the rest of the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Currently a low pressure system is sitting north of Lake
Superior. This is leading to a large area of cyclonic flow from
Montana to Michigan. The West Coast is split by 2 different
upper level systems; a high moving into the Pacific Northwest,
and a low moving into southern California. At the surface in the
Northern Plains, weak high pressure is in eastern Montana to
central North Dakota.

Today will be a little cooler with highs in the 40s as that
cyclonic flow continues to filter in cooler air. With a somewhat
tight pressure gradient across the state, today will be breezy
again but not a strong as yesterday. Expect northerly winds
gusting up to 30 mph, especially in the northwest and James
River Valley. With this cyclonic flow, we added a 20 percent
chance of rain and snow showers in the north central and central
parts of the state again. There is drier air to the west of
Highway 83 so we did not add those PoPs to the west.

Through the rest of this week that ridge and high pressure in
the Pacific Northwest will slowly slide east, pushing this low
pressure east. This will in turn warm temperatures to above
normal by this weekend. The NBM is fairly confident in the
temperature ranges that we will be in the 60s or 70s in the
latter part of the week. With the ridge, very little precipitation
is expected. This weekend could see some rain in the southwest
from a shortwave moving through Montana and Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Isolated flurries and light
rain/snow showers will be possible across portions of western
and much of central North Dakota through this afternoon, though
little to no impacts are expected at any given TAF site. Gusty
northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with sustained
speeds around 20 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots. Winds
are expected to diminish through the late afternoon and early
evening, dropping to below 10 knots overnight through Wednesday
morning. Winds will begin to strengthen again through the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Adam