490
FXUS63 KBIS 222353
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm up this afternoon, and through the holiday
  weekend, with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- Daily low to medium chances for rain Friday and through the
  holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Quiet weather continues over the area with some passing clouds,
many of which should dissipate with the loss of day time
heating. With that said, the exception will be over the
southwest where an increase in cloud cover is still on tap for
tonight with the approaching wave. Forecast update has been
sent.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Surface high pressure continues to move off to the east, thus
causing the skies to clear. Water vapor imagery and soundings
show an 850 mb moisture plume traversing northwest North Dakota
into the south central resulting in a scattered cumulus this
afternoon. This moisture plume actually extends into the Great
Lakes region wrapping around the upper low that brought wetting
to the state this last week. Temperatures continue to warm
across the state with high temperatures forecast to reach the
mid 60s in the Turtle Mountains and the 50s to low 60s
elsewhere. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to warm into
the upper 30s to lower 40s. There is a chance that patchy fog
could form in the north central to south central later tonight
into tomorrow morning. A weak upper level ridge continues to
push into the Northern Plains this afternoon with a shortwave on
the backside. The shortwave is forecast to bring showers across
the southwest tonight. Precipitation accumulations are forecast
to remain low.

The aforementioned shortwave will push into the south central
and northwest tomorrow. However there only remains a 15-40
percent chance of rain showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or
two. High temperatures are forecast to remain similar to today
with highs in the 50s to mid 60s in the Turtle Mountains, but
the southwest will remain on the color side due to cloud cover
and showers form the aforementioned shortwave trough. CAMs have
a boundary of storms stalling out over south central North
Dakota tomorrow afternoon while the NBM had PoPs further west.
Tomorrow night, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

A gradual warm up will continue into the weekend with periodic
chances for thunderstorms and showers. The upper level pattern
remains fairly weak as the main jet stream remains over the
Central Plains this weekend with an upper low traversing the top
of the mainstream. This could give the southern and western
half of the state low chances for showers and thunderstorms
everyday as temperatures slowly climb upward through the 60s.
Sunday into Monday the deformation band from the upper low could
clip the southern half of the state resulting in low to medium
chances for rain to start off the week. The upper low has
trended further south lowering QPF amounts. Probabilities are
low for 0.25 of rain with the highest probs in the far southwest
around 60 percent. Temperatures will continue on the trend
upward maybe touching the 70s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Ceilings will be on the decrease later tonight over southwest
North Dakota, with widespread MVFR ceilings by Friday morning
affecting the KDIK terminal, even some IFR ceilings over far
southwest North Dakota. Scattered rain showers are also
expected, spreading into northwest and south central North
Dakota late. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS