382
FXUS63 KBIS 151551
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
951 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chances for accumulating snow across all but far southern
  North Dakota Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The highest
  probabilities for 6 or more inches of snow are mostly north
  of Highway 2.

- Well above average temperatures through Monday and possibly
  into Tuesday, then rapidly cooling through the remainder of
  the workweek.

- Additional low to medium chances for lighter snow Thursday
  and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A few rain and snow showers may be found across a stationary
front in the north today. These potential showers are starting
to show up on radar, although limited precipitation reports have
been observed so far. However, kept slight chances through the
day in the north. Meanwhile the southern half of the state will
continue to be mainly dry with well above average temperatures.
Highs in the mid 50s could once again approach record highs for
some locations.

UPDATE
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Upslope fog along the Turtle Mountains is dissipating quicker
than initially anticipated as cloud coverage continues to
increase. Therefore, ended fog mentions by mid-morning. Light
radar echoes are being observed in the northwest as some
mid-level clouds stream into the forecast area. However, some
dry air remains in place and there has been no ground truth of
anything reaching the ground at this time. Nevertheless, added
low PoPs to the forecast a few hours earlier. Of note, observed
temperatures have all seemed to rise above freezing with this
cloud layer. Therefore, should anything reach the ground it will
likely either be in the form of light snow or rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

For the most part, fog has dissipated within the forecast area,
though upslope fog remains along the peripheries of the Turtle
Mountains, and may persist through the morning. Otherwise, well
above average temperatures are expected to continue through
Monday, and may linger into Tuesday before the next winter
weather system arrives. This translates to highs today ranging
from the mid 30s northeast and low 40s northwest to the low 50s
south. For Monday, it`s the low 30s northeast to mid 50s
southwest. Tuesday, with higher uncertainty due to the incoming
system as mentioned, is forecast by the NBM to range from the
mid 30s northeast to low 50s southwest, though could be biased a
bit on the warm side due to the recent warm weather pattern.

Two weak impulses within zonal flow aloft and somewhat
enhanced mid-level moisture are possible mainly in northern
North Dakota today and again Monday. This could lead to light,
relatively quick-moving precipitation. In both cases, with
unseasonable warmth continuing, rain should be the primary
precipitation type. However, there could be a brief period of
mixed precipitation or freezing rain mainly during the early
morning hours. In either case, impacts are expected to be few to
none and limited in duration should any occur.

Models maintain a general consensus that a hybrid low will
develop in Montana/northern Wyoming Monday night/Tuesday morning
before rapidly passing through the Dakotas Tuesday through
Tuesday night, and into Minnesota on Wednesday. Depending on
how far north this low tracks will help determine exactly how
much snow any location gets. That said, there has been a clear
shift northward in the past 24 hours within the ensemble
guidance. This could result in more rain before turning to snow,
especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening. In addition, a
further northward track could introduce significant dry slotting
issues resulting in less precipitation for much of the area
overall.

All told when it comes to snow probabilities in excess of 50
percent, this has pushed the 6 inch or greater contour mainly
north of Highway 2, the 4 inch or greater contour mainly north
of Highway 200, and the 2 inch or greater contour mainly north
of I94. In all cases, the contour has a WNW to ESE orientation,
thus is a bit further north in western North Dakota than
eastern North Dakota.

Windy conditions Tuesday through Wednesday continue to produce
the threat for blowing snow starting Tuesday night. However,
initial snow Tuesday evening will likely be wetter and more
difficult to blow around. Snow ratios are progged to increase
later in the night and Wednesday as colder air funnels in.
But even in this case, the strongest winds Wednesday are
currently progged to be southwest and especially south central.
These are the areas where snow totals are currently favored to
be the lowest. So while significant visibility reductions are
possible at times, especially as new snow is falling, this
doesn`t appear to be a widespread long duration blowing snow
event as this time.

Starting once the incoming winter weather system gets cranking,
cooler temperatures are on tap to finish out the week with
below average temperatures now likely for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures are then favored to gradually increase this weekend
and into early next week, although spreads beyond Friday are
quite large. Additional light snow off a weak secondary wave is
possible Thursday and could linger into Friday. At this time,
the highest chances for light snow accumulations are in the far
southwest though things will likely change by some degree
between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A little patchy fog persists in the vicinity of the Turtle
Mountains, though has been rapidly dissipating. Otherwise, VFR
ceilings and visibility, along with light westerly winds that
may become variable this evening and overnight, are expected
through the period. Of note, there are low chances for light
rain or snow early this morning and light rain this afternoon
across portions of northwestern and north central North Dakota.
As of this writing, no ground truth has supported anything
reaching the ground with any returns currently on radar. With
less than 30 percent confidence of any precipitation making it
through the dry air layer at any terminals, have left any
mentions out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken