513
FXUS63 KBIS 130510
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoke will linger in parts the James River Valley
  through the night. Otherwise, dry with a warming trend through
  the weekend.

- Turning cooler north on Monday but remaining hot south. Highs
  ranging from the mid 70s far north to the mid 90s far south.

- Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms Monday through Monday night, some storms could
  be strong to severe.

- Notably cooler mid-week with periodic chances for showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Quiet weather continues across western and central North Dakota
at the time of this update. Near surface smoke lingers over the
James River Valley, though visibilities remain generally around
or above 6 miles at most sites. For updates, have blended in
the latest satellite observation into the sky grids to account
for some mid level clouds south and west of the Missouri River.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Most of the diurnal clouds have died off. The wildfire smoke
mostly remains in place, but visibilities have improved some.
The latest observations have been blended into the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The wildfire smoke continues to push to the east. The James
River Valley and north are still dealing with 6 mile visibility
or less. Conditions will improve overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas of near-surface smoke have cleared out of western North
Dakota, and will continue to clear out of central ND through the
afternoon. Smoke may linger through tonight over eastern parts
of the state, potentially including parts of the James River
Valley. Other than a glancing blow Sunday afternoon near the
Turtle Mountains as smoke slides through northeastern ND, smoke
free skies should then prevail through at least Sunday night.

For tonight, a windshift boundary will pass through the state from
northwest to southeast. CAMs suggest a few returns may accompany
this boundary. However, model forecast soundings present very
dry air near the surface, therefore expect most any returns to
be virga or sprinkles at best. As a result, maintaining a lack
of mentionable PoPs at this time. For Sunday, another dry day is
expected. Surface low pressure to the west with high pressure
to the southeast should generate breezy winds mainly for the
eastern half of the state during the afternoon. Warmer
conditions are also expected with highs ranging from the low 80s
far north to the upper 80s southeast and near 90 southwest.

Mostly dry conditions are then favored Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. That said, a quasi-stationary west to east frontal
boundary may set-up near the Canadian border during this timeframe.
If so, showers, potentially with a few rumbles of thunder, will
be possible in northern ND. In addition, there will be a sharp
temperature gradient as a result of this boundary. At this time,
the deterministic NBM produces highs mainly in the mid 70s
north of Highway 2 to the low 90s near the ND/SD border. Any
shift in the set-up of this boundary further north or south will
moderately impact highs for any given location in the state, as
well as which locations may see showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

Late Monday afternoon and evening is when more impactful weather
may return. As the aforementioned quasi-stationary frontal
boundary begins dipping southward as a cold front, the potential
for severe weather could increase. The couple CAMs that go
through Monday afternoon are already hinting at thunderstorm
development in the very late afternoon. Both SPC and CSU
Machine learning have introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather Monday for much of the state, with CSU also introducing
a narrow ribbon of slight from western SD into south central ND.

Beyond Monday, expect much cooler temperatures for the remainder of
the workweek. Wednesday is favored to be the coolest day of the week
with highs mostly in the 60s, although NBM ensemble 25th/75th
temperature spreads remain fairly large and in excess of 10 degrees.
With the "deterministic" NBM forecasting above the 50th percentile,
there is plenty of room for an even cooler day Wednesday. Other than
cooler temperatures, occasional showers and thunderstorms are
possible through the workweek with severe weather chances generally
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. Near surface smoke lingers over
eastern North Dakota tonight, including over the James River
Valley at the time of this update. With smoke continuing to move
eastward overnight, major visibility reductions due to smoke
are not anticipated at any TAF site at this time. Light
southerly winds tonight will turn northwesterly through the
morning, becoming breezy across portions of central North
Dakota, with sustained speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25
knots expected through the afternoon. Winds then diminish
through the evening, veering to become southerly by the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Smith
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Adam