812
FXUS63 KBIS 101201
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
600 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend this workweek with no precipitation in the
  forecast until Friday night.

- Breezy across most of the state today and Tuesday, and in the
  east on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

These overcast high Chinook arch clouds will not end, and no
model has them. So adjusted the cloud forecast accordingly. The
James River Valley continues to have 1 to 3 mile visibilities
with the fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Currently a large sits over the western CONUS, with a large
trough and upper low in the Great Lakes Region. The ridge axis
is over Montana and moving east. At the surface high pressure
sits in the eastern half of the Northern Plains, with lowering
pressure in Montana from a low in northern Alberta Canada. Low
stratus has lowered in the James River Valley to create fog.

Today the warming trend continues, pulling us away from that
false winter we had over the weekend. With the ridge axis
entering the state today, an axis of warmer 850mb temperatures
comes with it. The west will see temps back in the 50s, while
the east warms to the 30s. On the backside of the ridge axis,
the flow flattens to zonal flow. This will then continue the
warm up as east moving air over the Northern Rockies creates
warming Chinook winds entering the state. Tuesday though the
flow turns slightly northwest so expect slightly cooler temps.
Then Wednesday to Friday another ridge moves in, warming most of
the state back into the 50s and maybe even the 60s. Today
through Wednesday will be breezy, but there is no need for an
Advisory.

Next weekend two low pressure systems looks to develop. One will
be a cut-off low moving through New Mexico, and the other a low
in southern Canada. So Friday night the flow turns southwest
with a surface front moving through. This will bring a slight
chance of rain (25%) to the region, although currently difficult
to forecast. Those rain showers may ling through Saturday
before another ridge looks to move through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR through the period, except this morning. The east currently
has LIFR CIGs with fog. This fog should end this morning. Winds
will gust around 25kts from the south today. This evening and
overnight WS is possible across all terminals.




&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith