377
FXUS63 KBIS 050105
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
805 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible
  across southwest, central, and eastern North Dakota this
  evening, but severe weather is no longer expected.

- Another chance for isolated to scattered severe storms
  Saturday in the west.

- Warm and humid conditions today with a cooling trend through
  the rest of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will carry
  over into early next week with a chance of severe weather
  returning next.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the James River Valley has been
cancelled, as outflow from earlier storms has stabilized the near-
surface air mass. However, outflow collisions are now causing new
convective growth near and to the northeast of Napoleon. These
updrafts are showing signs of being very short-lived though. Pulse
thunderstorms will remain possible across south central North Dakota
this evening, but the threat for strong to severe storms has all but
concluded, and the probability lightning is decreasing. Lighter rain
showers are likely to continue along and south of the cold front
through the evening.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A cold front continues to progress across the state with storms
firing along the front. High CAPE around 2000-3500 j/kg and low
shear around 20 kts has prompted severe isolated to scattered
severe storms this afternoon. The main hazards with these storms
are half dollar size hail and 70 mph winds. DCAPE is around
1000-1400 j/kg which will support strong downburst. This threat
is mainly for the James River Valley this afternoon and eastern
North Dakota. These storms along the cold front could cause
localized heavy rain which could result in localized flooding.
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
behind the front. These storms will not be severe and elevated
in nature. Temperatures will continue to cool off behind the
frontal passage as winds shift out of the north.

An upper level trough will pass across the region Saturday
leading to increased rain chances and cooler temperatures.
High temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 70s
to lower 80s. The James River Valley could see breezy winds from
pressure rises. The wrap around precipitation from an upper
level low is forecast to bring in showers and thunderstorms
Saturday morning. The CAMs are highlighting a line of
convection moving out of eastern Montana late Saturday into
western North Dakota where the environment will weaken this line.
This line could cause scattered severe storms as it crossed the
state border. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats Saturday night. The wave brought in the line of
convection Saturday night will lead weak showers and
thunderstorms Sunday morning across the state. Temperatures will
drop back down into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.

Monday zonal flow is forecast to return with an upper level low
moving across Saskatchewan. Ensembles have precipitation in the
as there is afternoon as thunderstorms. As the there upper low
passes there is around 40-50 kts of 0-6 km of shear however the
global models differ on instability. CSU machine learning
program has backed off on Monday with the GEFs having lower
instability, however I would not be surprised so see this trend
up this weekend. CSU machine learning program is also highlighting
potential Tuesday and Thursday for a return severe weather.
Temperatures will continue trend up next week back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across southern
and eastern North Dakota through tonight, although probabilities are
trending lower. Did maintain PROB30 mentions for TSRA at KBIS and
KJMS, but these may need to be reevaluated by around 02Z. If a
heavier shower or storm does pass over a terminal, brief periods of
visibility restrictions and erratic wind gusts are possible.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
However, smoke from fireworks could possibly reduce visibility late
this evening. This is most likely to occur at KBIS due to the larger
nearby fireworks display, but any terminal could see brief
reductions. Winds will primarily be northerly around 10 kts through
tonight, increasing to around 15 kts at KJMS and surrounding areas
Saturday morning. In western North Dakota, wind direction will turn
to the northeast on Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Hollan