085
FXUS63 KBIS 041437
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
937 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-daily low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through Saturday. The probability for severe weather is low.

- Today`s highest thunderstorm chances are across southern
  North Dakota during the mid afternoon through early evening.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures through the
  weekend, except warmer on Saturday.

- Breezy to windy conditions possible this weekend, especially
  on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025


Light showers continue to push in from Montana into northwestern
North Dakota. Looking at NDAWN stations, it is likely that very
little to no rain drops are making it to the surface. Within a
few hours they should, as the air will become more moist.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Limited updates needed this morning. Showers are starting to
show up on the radar in the northwest, although reports have
been limited. Expect this activity to spread across the west and
north this morning, becoming isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, cold temperatures are
being found across some areas this morning with lows in the 30s.
Increased cloud cover and sunrise should help these
temperatures warm quickly this morning, although perhaps some
very patchy frost is possible early this morning. Overall the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Broad trough pattern to continue across the state today. This
will bring continued below normal temperatures and light west to
northwest winds. This will also provide for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today through this evening,
with the better chances for thunderstorms coming this afternoon
and evening mainly across the south. The probability for severe
weather today is overall low. MUCAPE peaks around 1000 J/KG
while 0 to 6 KM shear is around 30 knots. With straight
hodographs this could be enough for some marginal sized hail,
perhaps up to an inch in diameter. Some elevated DCAPE could
also bring some gusty winds up to 60 MPH. Storm mode could be
more multicluster today with the shear vector at an angle to the
front. Overall given the lack of strong shear, instability, and
lift, severe weather chances are low today although perhaps an
isolated strong storm is possible. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could then linger across central and southern
portions tonight, with low temperatures in the 40s. Similar
conditions are then expected for Thursday with slightly below
normal temperatures and chances for showers and thunderstorms.
These chances may be slightly higher as a secondary moves across
the region. Instability looks to be similar on Thursday, with
shear similar to perhaps slightly less. An isolated strong storm
is possible, yet the chance for severe weather remains low.
Winds may become southerly on Thursday yet remain light.
Thursday night precipitation chances shift to the east with
overnight lows in the 40s to near 50. Friday then sees a brief
ridge move through that should limit shower and thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures could slightly warm to more normal like
temperatures in the 70s for most areas. Mainly dry conditions
look to continue through Friday night, with lows also slightly
warmer in the 50s.

Surface low associated with a clipper system then looks to push
through on Saturday. The breezy west southwest flow ahead of
this system could warm temperatures back into the lower 80s for
some areas. This system could also return widespread chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps a strong to severe storm is
possible on Saturday as instability and shear increases across
the area. Cold front then moves through Saturday night pushing
precipitation to the east with lows near 50. Surface high
gradually settles in for Sunday. A strong gradient with this
high, and upper low aloft, could bring for some strong northwest
winds. ECMWF EFI values are currently elevated perhaps hinting
some near advisory to advisory level winds are possible. With
the mentioned high moving in, chances for precipitation look to
be limited on Sunday. Surface high and upper level ridge could
then linger into the start of next week. Depending on the setup
of these features some warmer temperatures are possible as
hinted by the NBM temperature spreads. For now near to slightly
above normal temps are forecast, with the potential for more
widespread above normal temperatures. Precipitation chances
should also be limited to start the week, although NBM currently
has slight pops perhaps to account for some weak instability in
the afternoon and evening. The strong winds on Sunday should
diminish slightly on Monday, yet could remain breezy in the
east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions are overall expected through the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across much of the area. Confidence was only high
enough to include PROB30 in the TAFs at this time. Showers then
become more isolated tonight. Generally VFR, to perhaps brief
MVFR, conditions are expected with any shower activity. The
strongest storms this afternoon and evening could produce brief
visibility restrictions, small hail, and erratic wind gusts. A
light west to north wind will be found today, becoming light and
variable tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin